DL to suspend SEA-HND Flights

[WeAAsles]

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/12/dot-to-consider-whether-delta-should-keep-seattle-tokyo-haneda-slots.html/

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, we all know that the DOT will consider other options.

There is no assurance that the slots will be taken from DL.

There is a little over a month from when the process is supposed to finish until DL is going to restart the flight anyway.

It is entirely possible that the DOT is going thru the motions but will not realistically to strip a route which is being operated.

 

[jcw]

There is no assurance DL will keep the slot

 

[WorldTraveler]

we are in agreement on that point.

there is also no assurance that DL will lose the slot.

 

[eolesen]

No, there are no assurances, but the DOT is definitely blazing some new trail here.

Technically, the last time I can think of where DOT took back a route authority being operated was when UA and AA wound up with a few of EA and PA's routes (including MIA-LON perhaps?) on an emergency basis back around 1991. Those authorities were subject to new route proceedings, and one or two of those wound up being reassigned and the emergency authority was revoked.

With DL hoarding already holding half of the four authorities available and not using them to their fullest extent, there's a pretty good argument to be made that the public convenience is better served with competition.

And clearly, the market needs more competition if DL is as dominant as WT insists they are.

The real risk for DL is that DOT's shown themselves to spread the wealth before, and by their own words in the last HND decision have "historically given considerable weight to new entrant applicants in carrier selection proceedings."

Even by WT's definition standards, AA is considered a new entrant.

 

[WorldTraveler]

AA and UA both got JVs in return for Open Skies and these HND slots which cannot be viably used. The US erred tremendously in signing an Open Skies agreement and getting nothing for it.

If you think that DL can't make its case at how badly the DOT screwed up the Japan treaty and find political support to ensure that DL's interests are protected, then you might well be surprised.

we have been told for a year that DL would be out the door at DAL and they are still there.

DL has 1/4 of all of the flights between the US and HND.

no, AA is not a new entrant. It has a JV with JL.

It also is trying to add service to a route where 1/4 of the slots already are used.

the only markets outside of LAX and SFO that can support the current slot times are the islands.

 

[eolesen]

And yet, I suppose you'll argue that DOT also erred when they ignored the JV aspect entirely in granting UA the slots for SFO-HND earlier this year?

Please. DOT realizes that JV's can disappear over time. AA is a new entrant.

 

[WorldTraveler]

new entrant will be worth nothing.

and EVEN IF AA gets the route and DL loses SEA, do you not think that DL will just add more capacity from LAX to HND using an A333 which has trip costs that aren't a whole lot higher than the 767 that DL presently uses?

AA is NOT going to win trying to add another route to the west coast.

but you and AA have this fixation with AA trying to be something special from the west coast to Asia.

it is just not going to happen unless AA is willing to burn hundreds of millions of dollars from now until kingdom come.

DFW-Asia might well work from a revenue standpoint - but at higher costs because of the longer routes.

there isn't a carrier that flies LAX to Asia that is going to not fight with everything in it to keep AA from succeeding in those carrier's core Asia routes.

 

[jcw]

Remember at one time DL was a new entrant into the market

Oh wait DL was flying everywhere before aircraft were created

 

[eolesen]

but you and AA have this fixation with AA trying to be something special from the west coast to Asia.

So, I have a fixation with an airline I don't even work for... But you don't?

I know, the words irony and hypocrisy are both lost on you.

 

[700UW]

AA and UA both got JVs in return for Open Skies and these HND slots which cannot be viably used. The US erred tremendously in signing an Open Skies agreement and getting nothing for it.

If you think that DL can't make its case at how badly the DOT screwed up the Japan treaty and find political support to ensure that DL's interests are protected, then you might well be surprised.

we have been told for a year that DL would be out the door at DAL and they are still there.

DL has 1/4 of all of the flights between the US and HND.

no, AA is not a new entrant. It has a JV with JL.

It also is trying to add service to a route where 1/4 of the slots already are used.

the only markets outside of LAX and SFO that can support the current slot times are the islands.

Then how was Delta a new entrant into DAL when they had a pay for capacity on a regional carrier?

 

[WorldTraveler]

first, can you provide us with documentation that shows that new entrant status takes priority over every other consideration in an INTERNATIONAL route case?

second, can you provide documentation that the requirements for access to US DOMESTIC airports is the same as is used in int'l route cases?

since both are not true, the DOT will look at all kinds of factors, including whether DL should continue to hold the authority it has been given.

The chances are very low that the DOT will strip DL of authority to provide one HND route from SEA so AA can add its third, esp. since AA has abandoned a route to HND before and also posts significantly lower revenue to NRT than other carriers that operate LAX-NRT.

The notion that AA is going to overcome its revenue disadvantage on LAX-NRT with revenue that is on par with the competition is slim. And absent profits, the chances that any AA route is profitable raises the question of sustainability

 

[eolesen]

first, can you provide us with documentation that shows that new entrant status takes priority over every other consideration in an INTERNATIONAL route case?

Nope, but in the DOT's own words, they have "historically given considerable weight to new entrant applicants in carrier selection proceedings."

Go read the 2014 reallocation award from AA's JFK-HND authority. It's all there in black and white.

The chances are very low that the DOT will strip DL of authority to provide one HND route from SEA so AA can add its third, esp. since AA has abandoned a route to HND before

Uh, so has DL, Skippy. They had DTW-HND, and then they moved it. And they requested additional time.

If you haven't read Hawaiian's October request for a review of DL's dormancy, you should. It's got all the fact lined up about DL's actions in what is probably uncomfortable reading for you.

Further, it's extremely possible that DOT may have lost patience with DL. DL asked to change gateways from DTW to SEA, they asked for additional time (120 days instead of 90), and then they pulled this stunt with pushing the dormancy thresholds. Personally, if I were at DOT, I'd be looking for any excuse to pull the route after those antics.

Granted, I'm biased, but let's say I have two employees... one who asks for all sorts of exceptions and then makes excuses on why they can't deliver, and one who plays by the rules;I know which one I'd respond more favorably to or give the benefit of the doubt to if I had to choose one to promote or lay off...

 

[WorldTraveler]

I know the fact and I am not predicting that DL will lose the frequency nor am I making any predictions about who will get it.

I am saying that the likelihood that AA will be given access to LAX-HND when it has operated to HND before and when 2 other airlines already serve the route, including AA on LAX-NRT with very low yields compared to other carriers, the chances are not great that AA convince the DOT they are a better alternative.

and once again, SEA without this award would have no HND service. SFO has two. LAX has two. Hawaii has multiple.

the chances are decent that the DOT will tell DL it cannot operate its schedule the way it has and leave the frequency with them.

There is no other market that has proven it can make HND work given the current slot times. AA has yet to prove that it can make Japan work at industry comparable fares outside of DFW.

 

[eolesen]

There are lots of cities without HND service, so what makes SEA so special, especially with the existing service to NRT?

If it's not sustainable in a mature market like DTW, I'd say the business case for SEA is even less compelling.

We'll know in a few weeks.