DL to suspend SEA-HND Flights

[WorldTraveler]

the reason it didn't work for DTW is the same as for JFK - the slot times are not suitable for much of anything but the west coast does have the potential to work.

and if it comes down to that only 2 mainland markets work given the slot times, then perhaps it is time to revoke the Open Skies agreement and the JVs that came with it.

SEA has sustained Tokyo service for years.

The problem is not Tokyo; the problem is the slot times.

 

[jcw]

Wait are you saying the reason the perfect airline can't make HND work is the slot times if so you are now saying DL should give up the slot since they can't make it work

Thanks for agreeing with everyone

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, I said if the slot times really only allow for LAX, SFO, and Hawaii to viably work - and even there average fares from those cities to HND significantly lag what carriers get to NRT from those same cities - then perhaps it is time for the US to tell Japan that the HND slots are not viable and that the US will cancel the Open Skies agreement and the JVs that they came with them if Japan cannot open up HND enough to allow flights to more than 2 mainland cities.

The US gave up far more to allow Japanese carriers to gain ATI/JV compared to the value of the HND slots.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the slots if SEA, DTW, and JFK cannot support HND service but have had NRT service for years, often on multiple flights per day.

The problem is not the market. The problem is the slots at HND which should be by every other measure a more desirable airport to serve.

Either the DOT recognizes that the slots are defective and allow other cities to have service on a less than daily basis or the basis for HND service from the US needs to be amended.

 

[topDawg]

Nope, but in the DOT's own words, they have "historically given considerable weight to new entrant applicants in carrier selection proceedings."

Go read the 2014 reallocation award from AA's JFK-HND authority. It's all there in black and white.


Uh, so has DL, Skippy. They had DTW-HND, and then they moved it. And they requested additional time.

If you haven't read Hawaiian's October request for a review of DL's dormancy, you should. It's got all the fact lined up about DL's actions in what is probably uncomfortable reading for you.

Further, it's extremely possible that DOT may have lost patience with DL. DL asked to change gateways from DTW to SEA, they asked for additional time (120 days instead of 90), and then they pulled this stunt with pushing the dormancy thresholds. Personally, if I were at DOT, I'd be looking for any excuse to pull the route after those antics.

Granted, I'm biased, but let's say I have two employees... one who asks for all sorts of exceptions and then makes excuses on why they can't deliver, and one who plays by the rules;I know which one I'd respond more favorably to or give the benefit of the doubt to if I had to choose one to promote or lay off...

So then you are saying United or Hawaiian are the only airlines who should be able to get this slot then yes?
 
both DL and AA haven't "played by the rules"  

 

[topDawg]

And yet, I suppose you'll argue that DOT also erred when they ignored the JV aspect entirely in granting UA the slots for SFO-HND earlier this year?

Please. DOT realizes that JV's can disappear over time. AA is a new entrant.

How can you be a new entrant into a market place you have served and failed just so few years ago? 

 

[eolesen]

both DL and AA haven't "played by the rules"

No, AA did play by the rules -- when the route they were awarded didn't work out, they returned the frequencies to the DOT to reallocate. They didn't ask for an exception, and they didn't shift the award to a different gateway. Maybe they should have tried harder on that.
 
 

How can you be a new entrant into a market place you have served and failed just so few years ago?

That's WT's definition from the DAL access argument, not mine. If it applied to DL, certainly it applies to AA.

By your standard, there are no new entrants left except for maybe AS -- perhaps AA should lease them a widebody and urge them to apply?

 

[WorldTraveler]

again, where is it written that new entrant rules are the same for domestic airport access as they are for int'l route cases?

and AA DID appeal for the right to transfer the route.... they just didn't push the issue far enough for whatever reason.

DL succeeded at transferring DTWHND to SEA so I would have bet that if AA had proposed something besides LAX they could have won the right to transfer.

The fact that AA can only find one city that will work and which already has 2 flights/day out of a total of 8 raises the question if there are only 2 mainland cities that work even though many cities have Tokyo service, is the access the US was given to HND defective and if it is (and it is) then should the DOT not be amending its rules to ensure that other cities can benefit from HND access, even if it will not be as frequent as at SFO or LAX.

 

[jcw]

new entrant will be worth nothing.

and EVEN IF AA gets the route and DL loses SEA, do you not think that DL will just add more capacity from LAX to HND using an A333 which has trip costs that aren't a whole lot higher than the 767 that DL presently uses?

AA is NOT going to win trying to add another route to the west coast.

but you and AA have this fixation with AA trying to be something special from the west coast to Asia.

it is just not going to happen unless AA is willing to burn hundreds of millions of dollars from now until kingdom come.

DFW-Asia might well work from a revenue standpoint - but at higher costs because of the longer routes.

there isn't a carrier that flies LAX to Asia that is going to not fight with everything in it to keep AA from succeeding in those carrier's core Asia routes.

 
Let's see on the HAV thread you are saying short flights don't make money - now on this thread you are saying long flights don't make money because they are higher costs
 
Is there any flight that can make money - maybe it's like the kids story about the three little bears - to find the right bed - I guess the ATL / NRT must be a loser and ATL/DXB

 

[topDawg]

No, AA did play by the rules -- when the route they were awarded didn't work out, they returned the frequencies to the DOT to reallocate. They didn't ask for an exception, and they didn't shift the award to a different gateway. Maybe they should have tried harder on that.
 
 

That's WT's definition from the DAL access argument, not mine. If it applied to DL, certainly it applies to AA.

By your standard, there are no new entrants left except for maybe AS -- perhaps AA should lease them a widebody and urge them to apply?

But why should a carrier who has already failed in the market be given another chance when a profitable carrier wants more frequency?
 
And yes, but anyone's (un-biased) standards AA is not a new entrant. 
 
As for DAL, I'd what exactly WT is talking about. Auguring that Delta is a new entrant is stupid. (which is why the company never took that stance) Delta was (rightly so) arguing that not only was it going to add new capacity in to DAL(vs switching from DFW, ala Virgin) but that the DOT was effectively kicking out and existing player.  
 
 
 
I have said before that this is all complete horse crap. One good thing (sarcasm) we are seeing now under obama is Washington is doing whatever it wants. Screw the rules, screw how we did it in the past...... 
 
 
*unless you're Southwest. Then please, carry on* 

 

[WorldTraveler]

correction... Obama is TRYING to do whatever he wants as fast as he can before Congress cuts it all off.

and correction... .DL said it had the legal right to serve DAL based on the same right that every carrier has (except for AA which signed away its right to serve DAL as part of the merger settlement. )

 

[topDawg]

correction... Obama is TRYING to do whatever he wants as fast as he can before Congress cuts it all off.

and correction... .DL said it had the legal right to serve DAL based on the same right that every carrier has (except for AA which signed away its right to serve DAL as part of the merger settlement. )

No correction. Delta has been playing the "we were already there" angle as hard as they can.
 
and no, Obama is doing whatever he wants. So far the GOP hasn't had the balls to slow him down, I don't expect that to change in the next congressional term. JMO 

 

[eolesen]

But why should a carrier who has already failed in the market be given another chance when a profitable carrier wants more frequency?

By that standard, hasn't DL failed twice now with DTW and SEA? Seems that AA should get another chance from a more viable gateway. DL's had two chances from marginal gateways (and no, I don't buy into the slot time argument -- there's either demand or there isn't).

The fact that AA can only find one city that will work and which already has 2 flights/day out of a total of 8 raises the question if there are only 2 mainland cities that work even though many cities have Tokyo service, is the access the US was given to HND defective and if it is (and it is) then should the DOT not be amending its rules to ensure that other cities can benefit from HND access, even if it will not be as frequent as at SFO or LAX.

Well, you just summed up AA's argument. There appears to only be two mainland cities that can generate the right levels of demand for HND. So why waste a precious & scarce resource on a marginal market which has already shown it doesn't work?

DL can easily transfer anything flowing to SEA over to LAX, no?

Or maybe DOT just needs to let DL decide which gateway they want to maintain. It's still not out of the question that they'd revert to the original plan which was to let each airline have a slot pair, and it was easy to shortchange UA because they were so dominant already from the west coast.

 

[topDawg]

By that standard, hasn't DL failed twice now with DTW and SEA? Seems that AA should get another chance from a more viable gateway. DL's had two chances from marginal gateways

Whoa. I think maybe your bias is showing here you you have completely lost it. Seattle to Tokyo is a "marginal" gateway? Detroit to Tokyo is a "marginal" gateway?
 
New York friggin City is a "marginal" gateway to Tokyo?  
 

(and no, I don't buy into the slot time argument -- there's either demand or there isn't).

If you can't see that basically everyone is failing from the mainland to HND.....but can make the same exact city pairs work when using NRT and can't figure out that the issue is the god awful times then I can't help you.
 
But just to be completely honest that is a little WT of you. New York and LA to HND have or are for the most part a failure. That isn't because the market to Tokyo isn't there.  
 

Well, you just summed up AA's argument. There appears to only be two mainland cities that can generate the right levels of demand for HND. So why waste a precious & scarce resource on a marginal market which has already shown it doesn't work?

What two mainland cities is that exactly? LA has been at (at best) 70% load factors. I won't speak for Delta but I will bet basically anything you want to that it is not profitable. It might not be making loses but I just don't see it being profitable. 
 
United just started SFO-HND so I am not sure how you can come to the idea it is anywhere near profitable. 
 
As a matter of fact, out of all the airlines, AA, UA, DL, ANA, JAL and HA, only HA has (to my knowledge) said that HND is profitable. With those slot times about the only thing we can hope for out of the west coast is that it is break even.  
 
Delta, United and American are just slot sitting. Do they really want these slots? nope. They want to slot sit till Japan gives the US some day times slots. Then you will see these carriers quickly try to trade them in. 
 
at that point I bet Delta, United and Hawaiian quickly shift these four nighttime slots right on over to HNL-HND.   
 

DL can easily transfer anything flowing to SEA over to LAX, no?

Who in the world, that is profitable yields, is going to fly SEA-LAX-HND....? 
 

Or maybe DOT just needs to let DL decide which gateway they want to maintain. It's still not out of the question that they'd revert to the original plan which was to let each airline have a slot pair, and it was easy to shortchange UA because they were so dominant already from the west coast.

The original plan is the exact same plan we have now. DL gets two slots, HA gets a slot and one of the JVs gets a slot. AA got the first shot because of how large Tokyo-New York is. Once that failed (and AA failed out of the NYC-TYO market place all together) the DOT moved that slot to the next (in their mind) logical gateway in SFO-HND.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

HA's average fares to HND are well below other carrier average fares on the same markets to NRT, so whether HA is profitable is not the point but the fact that the Japanese gov't has put restrictions on the market that dooms the flights from generating revenues comparable to NRT flights - and they got JVs.

and it is the DOT's responsibility to ensure that the benefit of the Open Skies and HND access extends to all cities. If the slots don't work for more than 2 cities, then they need to relax their rules or cancel HND access and the JVs that came with it.

and the original intent of giving DL two of the 4 US carrier frequencies to HND was because AA and UA both have JVs and access to HND thru those JVs.

JL happened to choose SFO as their mainland gateway which does little for AA.

 

[topDawg]

HA's average fares to HND are well below other carrier average fares on the same markets to NRT, so whether HA is profitable is not the point but the fact that the Japanese gov't has put restrictions on the market that dooms the flights from generating revenues comparable to NRT flights - and they got JVs.

and it is the DOT's responsibility to ensure that the benefit of the Open Skies and HND access extends to all cities. If the slots don't work for more than 2 cities, then they need to relax their rules or cancel HND access and the JVs that came with it.

and the original intent of giving DL two of the 4 US carrier frequencies to HND was because AA and UA both have JVs and access to HND thru those JVs.

JL happened to choose SFO as their mainland gateway which does little for AA.

I have told you before avg. fare doesn't mean everything. 
 
HA has higher capacity a much less C class than any other carrier. Also it is a shorter trip. All of that plays a big factor into this. 
 
 
and the DOT has show......The US government is showing they have no real interests in fighting for US carriers. (or happens to be okay with North Korea telling us what we can/can't watch on TV) So just walk right away from that idea.