Done Deal -- $120M for Refinery

[WorldTraveler]

No, Jim. I have consistently said that I would trust a multi-billion dollar company who is making a $250M investment over someone on the internet who doesn't have any specific experience in the refining business. It doesn't really matter what company we are talking about.

You apparently glossed over or don't want to let go of the issue - but I specifically said that I would withhold any future judgment FOR YOU regarding the future production capacity of the refinery.... because I think the issue has been beat to death.
My advice to you - if you choose to accept it - is to be a little more judicious about making very black and white statements about issues that are outside of your realm of expertise.

Accountability happens when someone makes a statement based on their own capacity to understand the situation. ie. I have repeatedly said that I do believe AA will emerge as a standalone airline or IF it a bidding process does occur that US will not emerge as winning AA. That is my opinion - and I will stick by it and suffer the consequences if AA doesn't emerge as a standalone or if it is acquired by US.

What is not my opinion because I am trusting DL, BP, and C66 to be the experts in that area is the capacity of Trainer. I can be guilty of incorrectly putting faith in them, but I can't be guilty of saying they could or could not produce X bbls of jet fuel per day - because that is outside of my realm of expertise.

While opinions are a dime a dozen, here is one that seems to believe that DL's out of the box thinking regarding its fuel strategy will put it at the top of the US industry.

http://beta.fool.com/tdalmoe/2012/05/16/delta-airlinesbest-bad/4612/?source=eogyholnk0000001

 

[BoeingBoy]

advice to you - if you choose to accept it - is to be a little more judicious about making very black and white statements about issues that are outside of your realm of expertise.

Says the guy who constantly pushed DL's viewpoint despite acknowleging that some things are outside his area of expertise and made a definitely black/white statement that those who doubted that DL would be able to get from the refinery were wrong while admitting that refining is definitely outside his area of expertise.

But apparently you have definite knowledge of what expertise I have and don't have.....got the winning PowerBall number for this week too...LOL

Jim

 

[Kev3188]

You seemed to stumble with it weeks ago but I'll repeat it again despite, strangely, you would be one person on this forum who doesn't try to have an answer to areas outside of your area of expertise - or passion and thus I would argue understand the concept of knowing your place in life. There is something to be said for those who know their place in life - and that means that none of us have the answers to everything.

I didn't "stumble" over anything.

BTW, this is just as offensive now as it was when you first wrote it.

P.S. How many times am I going to have to ask you to stop name-dropping me in your posts? I have zero interest in being dragged into your attempts to discredit others.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Now Kev - remember that you have to "know your place in life"....we peons can't be uppity and act like know-it-all's...that right is reserved for a very few...

Jim

 

[Soaring Eagle]

I didn't "stumble" over anything.

BTW, this is just as offensive now as it was when you first wrote it.

P.S. How many times am I going to have to ask you to stop name-dropping me in your posts? I have zero interest in being dragged into your attempts to discredit others.

Kev, that's exactly how I read it, except I think that maybe his last post was even more offensive than the first.

 

[FWAAA]

From today's shareholder meeting over at Southwest:

When a shareholder asked Kelly whether the airline would think about buying a natural gas field as a hedge against rising fuel prices, Kelly acknowledged that managing its fuel costs "is a huge challenge." Southwest already enters into derivative contracts to try to soften the price swings of jet fuel. Getting into the natural gas business would force it to manage that risk, too.

"In all humility, we would admit to you, we don't know the oil and gas business, and the airline business keeps us pretty busy as it is," Kelly said. "We don't want to take what is already a high-risk business and make it even riskier."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwest-delays-737-deliveries-boosts-165416192.html

Silly GK. You don't need to know anything about the oil and gas biz if you get an oil company or two to team up and "partner" with you. DL now has BP and Phillips 66 on its side.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I.
If I told anyone participating on this thread (or elsewhere for that matter) that THEY should know their place in life but I was exempt from that directive, then by all means that would be offensive. But I never said that – and more significantly reading the comment IN CONTEXT would show that I couldn’t have possibly even meant that.
In fact, the context is about DL’s claims about what the refinery could or could not do – and I SPECIFICALLY have stated OVER AND OVER AGAIN that I do not have the experience or authority to question whether DL’s expectations are realistic. I have REPEATEDLY said that I do have good reason to trust that DL and two global oil companies have thought through the details that people on this thread want to question.
So, since some of you find if offensive to hear that WE should know our place, let me rephrase to simply say that **I** do know my place in life – and knowing that means that I do not have the experience or capability to make even close to an informed assessment of whether this deal is right. However, I do have the ability to make a judgment call of the claims based on the parties involved and the expertise and track record each possesses.
The comment about knowing OUR place in life wasn’t directed at any of YOU as much as it was to show that I didn’t then and still don’t have the knowledge or experience to know whether the parties involved in the deal are making realistic claims.
II.
Kevin,
If you would be so kind as to show me where you have asked me not to use your name, I will be certain to apologize to you for failing to abide by your wishes.
I would, however, argue that your assumption in believing that I am using your name in order to beat up someone else since it is not and has never been my intention to beat up on someone by using you as an example.
The whole point I have made all along – and which so many of you fail to grasp – is that I am simply asking people to stand accountable for what they say. Some people, including you – and I believe me as well – do that by not commenting on issues which are outside of their knowledge base.
I am pretty certain that what you really object to is allowing me to lump you and me in the same group, regardless of what that group is. Welcome to the human race; we and about 6 billion other people are bound by a common humanity which includes sharing a few things in common, even if you would like to believe you and I have absolutely nothing in common.
III.
Jim,
A light bulb went off on this issue of accountability today. I was in a meeting with a couple of experts in their fields – which has NOTHING to do with aviation. The meeting was regarding a research project in which I am involved and my team had expectations regarding the outcome of the research which, it turned out proved not to be true at all; in reality, the actual research showed the ABSENCE of a negative factor which meant that the research participants actually were in a better condition than expected.
As the team evaluated the results, there was debate about how to handle the expected findings which didn’t turn out to be the case at all. I asked why we simply didn’t say that we expected one thing and the results showed something else. The two experts – with 60 years of experience between them – both looked at me and said that if that is what I believed was right, I should do it…. But I should also know that based on their experience, a very small percentage of people in this same situation would be willing to admit that they didn’t accurately predict the outcome. Based on what they have seen in the past, they said most people would go back and rewrite their expected findings AFTER the fact to show that they came up with the right answer; others would blame a number of other factors outside their 2control; but few would admit they were wrong.
After I picked myself up from the floor realizing that I was incredibly idealistic and naïve about how the vast majority of humanity operated, the light bulb went off and I realized that the discussion in that room was DIRECTLY CONNECTED to this discussion on airline forums.
You see, Jim, I perhaps naively expected that the majority people would be willing to subject themselves to the scrutiny of review to determine if what they really said or expected to occur actually occurred.
Boy was I wrong.
About other people – and about you.
So, let me toss my idealistic expectations out the window, you are free to say whatever you want, and if what you say turn out not to be the case, then I will have found that you are no different than the vast majority of the rest of the world.
Forgive me for holding you up to a higher standard.
In the meantime, I will be watching how well this refinery works out for Delta, quite independent of any expectations from anyone else.

 

[Kev3188]

Your assumption is wrong.

Again; stop mentioning me in your posts.

Edit: actually, you may be onto something, since I find self-admiration to be unctuous. Ditto rationalization, and indemnifying words to allow wiggle room.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Forgive me for holding you up to a higher standard.

There you go again....

I consider standing behind one's opinions a higher standard but apparently you do not. I've told you at least twice already that I have no problem admitting that I'm wrong when I am in fact wrong. No droning on and on about one potential advantagous outcome then throwing in a conditional word occassionally so I can wiggle out if necessary to keep from being wrong.

You're right about one thing - you never said "I'm exempt from knowing my place." But what you have said several times is that those without expertise in an area that don't state opinions on that subject "know their place in life." Yet you claim no expertise in the petroleum industry but have given your opinions over and over and over. That practice indicates that you believe that your place in life is above most others, otherwise you wouldn't state opinions on things outside your field of expertise (whatever that is besides telling others how wrong they are).

I've told you before and will again since it obviously didn't sink in - your practice of telling others what they should or shouldn't comment on while making comments on any subject you like leaves a bad taste in people's mouths. No one likes to be told that their place in life is to remain silent on subjects for which they have no expertise (in your judgement) while you drone on and on about the advantages of this or that which DL does or announces (or is even rumored to be thinking about) when you admit not having expertise in that area. You live, at least on these forums - by a double standard. Always right, even if it takes changing your words or making false claims to be right, while anyone who disagrees with you is always wrong.

Jim

 

[eolesen]

stop mentioning me in your posts.

Kev has asked this at different times in the past few months, and I seem to recall someone else (FWAAA?) doing so as well. I'm not going to waste the time trying to find examples, but I've seen it more than once, and certainly before the last 48 hours where he'd requested it in another thread (which you blatently ignored)

Why?

Because you've "name dropped" them as a shameless way to build up the credibility of whatever tome you've embarked on that day.

If you can't stand on your own reputation, don't be surprised when people ask you not to ride on their coattails.

 

[Kev3188]

^Bingo^

...And yeah, it was FWAAA...

 

[WorldTraveler]

But the request was for you, Kev3188, to produce the quote where you said it, and yet you didn't do it.

I supposed riding on coattails doesn't include "you beat me to it" which I've seen a whole lot of late.


Kev and everyone else participates on this forum on an open basis. If you don't want to have your posts cited, then ask the owners to come up with the ability to filter the results based on the VIEWER.

BTW, E, how fixated are you really that you bother to mention me in your signature line not just now but in the past as well? If my goal is to get under your skin, I have been very successful.

 

[Kev3188]

Directly quoting and/or commenting on what someone has written is to be expected- it's what forums are built on.

What I refuse to allow you to drag me into is your using someone in an attempt to advance your argument against a 3rd person. You know what you write; I don't have to provide examples. If you need a refresher, go look. I'm not asking again.

The first =/= the second.

... Then again, maybe I should just "learn my place."

 

[eolesen]

For someone who appears to be as intelligent as WT tries to portray himself, there's no excuse for not seeing the difference.

how fixated are you really that you bother to mention me in your signature line not just now but in the past as well? If my goal is to get under your skin, I have been very successful.

My signature image exists for the same reason I have a "Fire Obama" bumper sticker on my Jeep -- to remind people that each and every vote counts, and to piss of those who voted for him in the first place.

 

[WorldTraveler]

No, Kev.

I have told no one to take a place that I wouldn't take myself.

My point was not to use you as a tool with which I could beat up on someone else.

The point is that every one of us has our own strengths and weaknesses. While you may believe that I have nothing good to say about anyone else, including you, the simple fact is that an objective view of life REQUIRES acknowledging what is both positive as well as that which is in need of improvement. Denying one at the expense of the other leads invariably to distortion - and a disconnect from reality.

With regard to the topic at hand, I believe you are one of those people who doesn't try to have an answer for every question -and that is commendable. There is nothing wrong with doubt - and there are plenty of people who have expressed that with regard to the refinery transaction. It is quite another thing to assert that you contradict someone else - who is a professional in that field - says.

In the DL transportation conference call this week, they stated that the chemical limit of extracting jet fuel from crude is about 30%. DL said they will be operating the refinery to obtain the maximum jet fuel output from the crude they use.

DL also said that they expect to be able to free up cash since they will not be buying fuel in advance as is the industry practice but instead will be buying the crude when it needs to be used.

Out of respect for you, I will not use your name other than in a direct quote or reply of what you have written.

FWAAA,
I'm not sure why the question was even asked about WN getting involved in natural gas, but WN's response with respect to natural gas is likely be no different than any other airlines'.

WN does appear to want to continue with hedging but it still remains a risky proposition at which it is very possible to lose as well as gain.

WN's fuel costs of late - they are paying the highest jet fuel costs among the large carriers because of bad hedges - shows how difficult it is to hedge, even for companies that have the best credit and have had success at hedging in the past.

Ah, I see, E.
I'm honored that you believe that I have as much power to affect your life as Obama. Not bad considering I have never signed a single piece of legislation.