Fairytale dreams not to come true?

[delldude]

Funny, if the polls showed what you want them to show then I'd bet that you would be the first one to post them here. You don't like the numbers so you just pretend they must be wrong.

"Scusa

October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.

With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.

Here's the evidence:

* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.

* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.

* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.

* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.

* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)

Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.

None of these data indicates that the Republicans are out of trouble yet, but Democrats must win one of these three races: Ford in Tennessee, Menendez in New Jersey or Webb in Virginia. If not, they'll fall at least one seat short of controlling the Senate even if they succeed in knocking off all five vulnerable GOP incumbents in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.

Why are Republican fortunes brightening?

The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.

Bush's success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.

Then, too, some in the Democratic Party must be finally realizing what a disastrous decision it was to put Howard Dean in as party chairman. The Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.

Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.

 

[Flying Titan]

Dell -
I have quite a bit of respect for Zogby. He's a good, solid pollster. He's been right before...but he's clearly in the minority this time on his view of the national trends and on key states & districts.

As I said earlier, it's interesting how all-of-a-sudden poll numbers have vailidity when you find one that says what you want.

 

[700IAM]

I don't think he is. He surely doesn't act like one.

If anyone considers himself religious and yet does not keep a tight rein on his tongue, he deceives himself and his religion is worthless.

In case you didn't notice I have not spoken one word. I mean are you listening to wav files or is it your inner voices again.


So exactly how does a Christian act? Not like me? Like me? Like you "think" they should? Being a Christian and being human are separate and distinct. I don't fit your mold, your vision of a Christian therefore I am on the bus to hell with everyone else. Thanks for the laugh. It's time for bed and in two minutes I will be snoring because that's how much you upset me 😛

 

[Flying Titan]

Dell -
I thought you might be interested in this. It's a little long, but a pretty good read from a well respected non-partisan political analyst - Charlie Cook

October 24, 2006

A Wild Year for Forecasting
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
This column was originally featured in National Journal on October 21, 2006

Unlike 99.99 percent of the people who watch politics with a passion, political analysts don't care about which side wins, but they do care about correctly predicting the outcome. And that's why this election season has been so maddening: Trying to get a fix on what's going on has been like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall; it just won't stay put.

People expect analysts to have firm opinions about how an election year is going, even when key elements keep shifting. For the past 13 months, except for brief interludes in late spring and early fall, the Republicans' situation has looked increasingly serious. The general trend, driven by the war in Iraq, scandals, and other issues as diverse as budget deficits, stem-cell research, and Terri Schiavo, was downward from the start. By early August, the number of endangered GOP House seats was getting close to the number that Democrats need to gain the majority. The GOP's grip on the Senate appeared to be weakening as well.

The Republicans' prospects took a decided upturn in September: Falling gasoline prices, the continuing interest in the arrest of terrorist suspects in London, and commemorations of the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks effectively shifted the national spotlight back to terrorism, national security, and the fact that gas prices were no longer at a record high -- all of this meant a much more favorable agenda for Republicans.

I wrote at the time that if the public's attention remained on terrorism, national security, and cheaper gas, the GOP would likely hold its House majority and almost certainly hold its Senate majority. This prompted hateful e-mails from Democrats and liberals, who accused me of being a pawn of the White House -- and who obviously hadn't read my columns earlier this year that drew the enmity of conservatives and Republicans.

Toward the end of September, the spotlight shifted again, with 9/11 and terrorism falling off the front pages and off the top of the TV news. The war in Iraq and the scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., and his sleazy e-mails to congressional pages began to take center stage, riveting the spotlight on the year's worst constellation of issues for the GOP. This, of course, prompted another round of hostile e-mails to my in-box from conservatives and Republicans.

Even though the election is just over two weeks away, the national spotlight could shift again. At this point, though, campaign-related or domestic political events probably couldn't pull public attention away from the issues that are so hurting the Republicans. It would take a major international or domestic crisis -- something powerful enough to shove Iraq and scandals off the front pages and out of the first 10 minutes of TV news broadcasts.

Democratic voters are champing at the bit to cast their ballots. Republicans, meanwhile, seem depressed and far less interested in this election than they were in the 2002 and 2004 contests, when the GOP beat the point spread by turning out unexpectedly high numbers of voters. Indeed a recent Pew Research/Associated Press survey found that Democrats are even more motivated than Republicans were in 1994, the year they wiped out the Democrats by gaining 52 House seats and eight Senate seats.

No rational person is talking about Democratic gains of that magnitude. The relatively low number of open GOP seats -- and other structural factors -- will hold down the Democrats' pickups. But unless something major happens, we are still looking at big Democratic gains.

As of now, Republicans appear to be headed toward losing at least 20 House seats -- perhaps 30 to 35 or even a few more. The competitive races are there: 45 GOP-held seats are vulnerable and another 18 are potentially so.

In the Senate, the Republicans will most likely lose five or six seats. Six, of course, would give Democrats control of the chamber. It's possible -- though less likely -- that the GOP will lose as few as four or as many as seven Senate seats.

In big-wave elections, analysts tend to underestimate the number of seats that the party in power will lose. And so far, no political analyst has figured out how to accurately predict the size of an electoral wave before it crashes ashore.

 

[Flying Titan]

These numbers reflect polls from Mason-Dixon Research and LA Times/Bloomberg...

13 days remaining

House (35 contested races)
Leans GOP 5
Toss-Up 21
Leans Dem 9

Senate (9 contested races)
Leans GOP 0
Toss-Up 4
Leans Dem 5

Full Article

 

[Seatacus]

It's time for bed and in two minutes I will be snoring because that's how much you upset me 😛

I hope yo'mama tucks you in and says prayers with you. Sleep well and get lots of rest 'cuz that school bus comes real early. Don't want you to be tired for first period.

 

[Flying Titan]

These numbers reflect polls from Mason-Dixon Research and LA Times/Bloomberg...

12 days remaining

House (35 contested races)
Leans GOP 5
Toss-Up 18
Leans Dem 12

Senate (9 contested races)
Leans GOP 0
Toss-Up 4
Leans Dem 5

Full Article

 

[Flying Titan]

With 11 days remaining...

Mason-Dixon and LA Times/Bloomberg polling numbers on key House and Senate races are the same as yesterday.

 

[MrAeroMan]

Yeah...tell me about polls.....ask kerry

maybe the dems regain control.....now they'll have to put up or shut up....they'll be on the hot seat and most likely will be the same old crapola....

Hmmmmm....wasn't there a poll right before the election in 2004 that had Kerry winning by 12 points?? :blink:
How'd that work out for him???

 

[Flying Titan]

Hmmmmm....wasn't there a poll right before the election in 2004 that had Kerry winning by 12 points?? :blink:
How'd that work out for him???

I must have missed that ONE. Most of the polls showed that to be a very, very close race - and that's just what it was. Exactly what point are you trying to make by showing one (unnamed) poll was wrong? Are you trying to say that polling is meaningless or has no accuracy? If that's the case, ask yourself why EVERY major campaing spends large sums of money on polling - not just of the race itself, but of the key issues in the race.

 

[Flying Titan]

These numbers reflect polls from Mason-Dixon Research and LA Times/Bloomberg...

10 days remaining

House (35 contested races)
Leans GOP 5
Toss-Up 17
Leans Dem 13

Senate (9 contested races)
Leans GOP 0
Toss-Up 4
Leans Dem 5

Full Article

 

[Flying Titan]

With 8 days remaining...

Mason-Dixon and LA Times/Bloomberg polling numbers on key House and Senate races are the same as yesterday and the day before.

 

[Flying Titan]

These numbers reflect polls from Mason-Dixon Research and LA Times/Bloomberg...

7 days remaining

House (35 contested races)
Leans GOP 5
Toss-Up 17
Leans Dem 13

Party Currently Holding Toss-Up Seats:
17 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Senate (9 contested races)
Leans GOP 0
Toss-Up 3
Leans Dem 6

Party Currently Holding Toss-Up Seats:
3 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Full Article

 

[Seatacus]

What's going to happen is this election is going to be a squeaker in some areas. So get ready for all the lawyers to start filing suits for election recounts and voter fraud. I can't wait. :down:

 

[Flying Titan]

These numbers reflect polls from Mason-Dixon Research and LA Times/Bloomberg...

6 days remaining

House (35 contested races)
Leans GOP 4
Toss-Up 18
Leans Dem 13

Party Currently Holding Toss-Up Seats:
18 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Senate (9 contested races)
Leans GOP 0
Toss-Up 3
Leans Dem 6

Party Currently Holding Toss-Up Seats:
3 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Full Article