Forbes Article on Trainer

[FWAAA]

if production was growing faster than consumption, inventories wouldn't be growing.

I think you mis-spoke there. Re-read that sentence. The poor word choice in that sentence is the "wouldn't." Change "wouldn't" to "would" and then the sentence makes sense.

When you post nearly 100 times in one day (actually 94, but by your math, that's the same as 100, right?) it can be tough to compose coherent, logical sentences.
 

whether you can accept it or not, Trainer is a significant part of total jet fuel production in the US and it is controlled by one airline that has changed the pricing such that refiners have less incentive to produce jet fuel than they do diesel.

Significant part? I'm going to argue that 4% of total jet fuel production in the USA is not a "significant part," but unreasonable people could disagree.

Trainer, operating at full capacity of 185,000bbl/day, 365 days a year, at 32% jet fuel output (Delta's stated goal, which is a higher percentage than any other refinery in the USA), could theoretically produce 908 million gallons of jet fuel annually. And we know from published reports that severe weather events (Sandy, etc) and unreliable daily supply will probably keep production no higher than 800 million gallons annually. Refineries never produce at their peak capacity every day of the year. But let's assume the most optimistic result of 908 million gallons.

What's the total annual production of jet fuel in the USA? According to the EIA, for the 12 mo ended Nov14 (Dec data expected in three weeks), the annual production last year was approximately 533 million barrels of jet fuel, which equals 22.386 billion gallons of jet fuel. Trainer's max output of 908 million gallons equals 4% of the nation's total jet fuel production.

Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mkjupus1&f=m

Has that 4% resulted in a material effect on price? I don't know.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Significant part? I'm going to argue that 4% of total jet fuel production in the USA is not a "significant part," but unreasonable people could disagree.
 

 
But 4% is more-or-less 5% and that's half-way to 10%.
 
I guess you also looked at more data than 1 row/column in Table 1?

 

[WorldTraveler]

I looked at multiple pages of the document.

the question once again is whether DL execs were lying when they said that Trainer was responsible for changing the historic relationship between jet fuel and diesel and in reducing the crack spread.

are either of you two willing to argue that they lied?

and you also might want to consider that jet fuel is consumed both by civil users and the military. DL's share of the jet fuel used by civil aviation is much higher than 4% and when you consider the NE, the number is even higher.

DL never said that the effects of Trainer on jet fuel prices and availability are equal across the US

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

 DL's share of the jet fuel used by civil aviation is much higher than 4% and when you consider the NE, the number is even higher.
 

 
A part of the reason why DL/Trainer have at best very minimal effect on jetA / diesel prices compared to other factors.

 

[WorldTraveler]

again, DL is not influencing diesel prices.

you can tell DL execs they are wrong about jet A prices.

better yet, tell the SEC.

 

[WorldTraveler]

btw, here is an article about new refinery capacity coming online in the Middle East.

it doesn't go into a lot of pricing detail but it does talk about expected changes in the flow of refined products.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-mideast-oil-refineries-could-stir-up-fuel-market-2015-02-09?dist=beforebell

the principle is no different than with Trainer. increased refining capacity will effect existing suppliers and change the economics of the market.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

A minor detail that can ruin the fairy tale of Trainer moving the price of fuel on the markets with hurricane-like force is the fact that the refineries opening up in the middle east will have the capacity  to process 1.2 million barrels per day.
The Whole Truth.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and when those refineries affect the supply of jet fuel in the US, let us know.

Trainer is tuned for jet fuel, not diesel, which is what the article specifically says those refineries will produce the greatest amount of.

check the article about where it says those ME refineries will send the majority of their output. It ain't the US

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

You missed the point.  Those refineries have a much larger capacity than Trainer.  I don't know why you can't grasp the fact that Trainer is not the mother-of-all refineries that you want to  make it up to be.  It may help DL reduce it's fuel cost, regionally.  But DL corporate decisions at Trainer do not move the price of fuels as you claim they do. 
Again, ask yourself the question:  If Trainer was such a powerful facility, why on earth did ConocoPhilips get rid of it?

 

[WorldTraveler]

I missed nothing.

you are trying to connect refineries in the middle east that are tuned for diesel output with having some effect on the US jet fuel market.

When you have proof that will actually take place, let me know.

once again, you are jumping to a conclusion that cannot be supported based on facts that are not there.

and you have been told many times that CP is not using Trainer the way DL is. It should be obvious to you why DL is doing better with it.

ask yourself why SQ got rid of its holding in VS and yet DL will gain $200M in extra revenue this year from VS.

why, oh why, has that taken place?

btw, AA just revised upward its fuel cost for the quarter by 10 cents/gallon based on higher fuel prices.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

you are the one that posted the article referencing the opening of the refineries in the mid-east
then made the claim that Trainer - which has a much smaller refining capacity - is going to have the same effect on the price of fuels
 
you are a liar and a fraud.
 
stop deflecting and changing the subject and stop trying to slither out of a fabricated outright lie you have made.
you specifically claimed this: 
DL's strategy with VS has already generated far more revenue for DL than any other airline partnership has for any other airline in the same period of time.
 
now prove it or shut up.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and yet AA's RASM is trailing the industry and AA execs said that the DL-VS JV is hurting AA's RASM performance.

Given that AA's LF on the Atlantic for January even after pulling out 9% of the capacity is still 5 points below DL, they appear to be right.

unfortunately, you can't even believe AA execs.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and yet AA's RASM is trailing the industry and AA execs said that the DL-VS JV is hurting AA's RASM performance.

Given that AA's LF on the Atlantic for January even after pulling out 9% of the capacity is still 5 points below DL, they appear to be right.

unfortunately, you can't even believe AA execs.

 
A classic example of changing the subject when caught lying.
 
Why don't you even attempt to back up this one little statement you made:
 
 
DL's strategy with VS has already generated far more revenue for DL than any other airline partnership has for any other airline in the same period of time.
 
 
 
Could it be because it is an outright lie, a fabricated statement, a made up claim.  Come on, I triple dog dare you!
 
 
You've been caught lying.  Admit it and move on.
 
Or, better yet, prove me wrong, show everybody how much of a genius you are.
 
Otherwise, the more you post the more you cement your reputation as a fraud and a liar.

 

[southwind]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/01/21/how-cheap-oil-has-delta-air-lines-jet-fooled/
 
someone's head will explode

Some people believe in thinking outside the box, no risk's, no reward (DL/Trainor) and others, like you and others here on these boards want them to fail....so be it!

 

[700UW]

Give him Hell Frugal!