Of course Doug and Co are "shopping" for a dancing partner for USA. What do you think they've been doing while Delta creditors decide what they wanted to do -- twiddle their thumbs? No. Anyone remeber America West's failed attempt to acquire ATA Airlines? And then, a short time later, they're merging with USA? A LOT of people thought the whole Delta offer was "smoke and mirrors" from the beginning and that Northwest was (is?) the real target.
There's a LOT of things to consider, going forward. I think USA hooking up with NWA would be a messy, messy merger -- even if it's amicable. The route systems are complimentary, though, and USA could use a mid-west hub (MSP) and of course, Everyone covets many of Northwest's Asian routes. The A319/A320, A330, and 757 fleets are very comparable. Put the Diesel-9's out of their misery and a very strong carrier could emerge. Let's hope so, anyways...
And how do you know when Doug Steenland, CEO of Northwest is lying? Whenever his lips move -- just ask any of his FORMER employees in Atlanta ("We have no plans to close this hangar", and he did, 2 months later) or Duluth (state of MN will probably sue for all the "perks" they gave NWA to build that facility there...which is now empty of anything to do with NWA...) So, there's a strong chance that the Doogie and Doug Steelin' have already been chatting about the prospects of getting together -- despite Doug Steenland stating that NW ain't interested. However, I don't see Doogie Parker giving any power to Steelin' and I don't see Steelin' sitting back and having little or nothing to do with a merged entity. Funny how egos could get in the way of a great deal. Will be interesting to watch, when it is proposed.
Something else to think about, and I'm not wishing a second bankruptcy for anyone, but if DL and NW do both emerge, stand-alone, and they DON'T make it, and for whatever reason, one, or both of them, decides to file bankruptcy again, the bankruptcy laws have changed and from what I understand, much less favorable than they were the day NW and DL filed... Could be interesting.
Then, again, there's always a chance UA will by USA.
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And if as stand-alone's, Delta or Northwest get desparate, they could sell of parts of their operation or assets in order to increase cash-flow and at that time the airline with the cash to spend would then be in the cat-bird seat. Buy DL's South American routes and some European routes, perhaps, or Northwest's Asian routes...just thinking of some of the possibilities, out loud. Of course, whatever airline has the most cash or can get their hands on the most cash, may be in the best position if something like this were to happen...
As Doug Parker has said, though, the best time to merge is while one of the carrier's is in bankruptcy. It makes achieving the "synergies" rather simple. The only other viable option would be to possibly buy a "little guy" -- kind of like AirTran trying to buy Midwest. A total cash buy-out is pretty much impossible for shareholders to ignore -- if it benefit$ them. US Airways has cash, and has proven it has access to a LOT more, too. But it's much more difficult to dump aircraft leases and other contracts in this type of scenario. But, think of all the possibilities -- could be really intersting.
I'm not saying any of these things will happen or won't and I'm not saying that I WANT any of these things to happen... Just kind of brain-storming, out-loud, all the possibilities that US Airways has to shake up the industry. And it will be shakin' -- just hope we keep the Richter scale under 7!
And, let's face it. It's fun to speculate!
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🙂 😛 Great thread!