eolesen
Veteran
- Jul 23, 2003
- 15,988
- 9,428
The moment it costs more to fly than it does to drive, people will drive, leaving lots of empty seats, driving up the costs even more. It has been well proven over time that when airfares go up, people don't take as many discretionary trips, like the last minute weekend trip to go shopping in NYC, gambling in LAS, or flying instead of driving for the annual vacation to Disneyworld.
Pretty much without exception, up until 2005, North American carriers had fleets built around a business model with $30 oil. With oil at $60, and projected to climb, you'd think that carriers would be disposing of aircraft at record rates and being a little more restrained at adding capacity. Yet even with all the aircraft dumped by the bankruptcy sisters, domestic capacity continues to grow...
One reason Euro-LCC's have done so much better at passing along the price of fuel is because a) there are fewer cars per capita, b) because you have so many island nations and destinations, there are costs other than fuel to consider when going on holiday (ferry's aren't cheap, and neither are tolls in France), and c) it still costs considerably more for auto gas in Europe than it does in North America. When you look at all those factors combined, the price differential for flying vs. driving is still well in flying's favor.
That's just not the case in the US. Even with the run up in fuel prices, we still have relatively cheap gas, and a great system of interstate highways which make it possible to go from coast to coast in three days without paying a dime in tolls or having to drive aboard a ferry. Plus, I'd bet we have more cars per capita than any other country in the world, and certainly more personally owned vehicles suitable for a 18+ hour drive in relative comfort.
Case and point: it was cheaper and more convenient for me and my family to drive from Texas to Chicago for Christmas than it was to fly. Given the hassle-factor of dealing with the TSA, and the hassles of renting a car with all of the extra fees the rental car companies have imposed, it was simpler to endure 18 hours on the road where everyone had the option of their own video or MP3 player, freshly laundered pillows and blankets, and hot food without having to pay F service charges.
Southwest figured out a long time ago that the car was their biggest competition, and they're right on the money. But even WN is showing signs that they're losing that battle, which is probably why you see them moving into more and more point to point markets where driving isn't as convenient of an option for most people.
Pretty much without exception, up until 2005, North American carriers had fleets built around a business model with $30 oil. With oil at $60, and projected to climb, you'd think that carriers would be disposing of aircraft at record rates and being a little more restrained at adding capacity. Yet even with all the aircraft dumped by the bankruptcy sisters, domestic capacity continues to grow...
One reason Euro-LCC's have done so much better at passing along the price of fuel is because a) there are fewer cars per capita, b) because you have so many island nations and destinations, there are costs other than fuel to consider when going on holiday (ferry's aren't cheap, and neither are tolls in France), and c) it still costs considerably more for auto gas in Europe than it does in North America. When you look at all those factors combined, the price differential for flying vs. driving is still well in flying's favor.
That's just not the case in the US. Even with the run up in fuel prices, we still have relatively cheap gas, and a great system of interstate highways which make it possible to go from coast to coast in three days without paying a dime in tolls or having to drive aboard a ferry. Plus, I'd bet we have more cars per capita than any other country in the world, and certainly more personally owned vehicles suitable for a 18+ hour drive in relative comfort.
Case and point: it was cheaper and more convenient for me and my family to drive from Texas to Chicago for Christmas than it was to fly. Given the hassle-factor of dealing with the TSA, and the hassles of renting a car with all of the extra fees the rental car companies have imposed, it was simpler to endure 18 hours on the road where everyone had the option of their own video or MP3 player, freshly laundered pillows and blankets, and hot food without having to pay F service charges.
Southwest figured out a long time ago that the car was their biggest competition, and they're right on the money. But even WN is showing signs that they're losing that battle, which is probably why you see them moving into more and more point to point markets where driving isn't as convenient of an option for most people.
