Petroleum Report For Week Ending 11/4/05

BoeingBoy

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Nov 9, 2003
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U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.3 million barrels per day during the week ending November 4, up 316,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average, with most of the increase in the Gulf Coast region. Refineries operated at 84.0 percent of their operable capacity last week (capacity temporarily lost is not subtracted from operable capacity). However, both gasoline and distillate fuel production fell slightly, averaging over 8.6 million barrels per day and nearly 3.8 million barrels per day, respectively.

Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.5 million barrels per day, or 1.9 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.1 million barrels per day, or 0.4 percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 0.4 percent above the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 0.6 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year.

Spot prices for jet fuel.....11/04....10/28.....10/21....10/14.....10/07.......9/30......9/23......9/16.......9/09.......9/02.......8/26
New York Harbor.........$1.8135 $2.0050 $2.0275 $2.1150 $2.3050 $2.4200 $2.0700 $1.9450 $2.0100 $2.2750 $1.9100
Gulf Coast...................$1.7655 $1.9640 $1.9325 $2.3050 $2.8400 $2.6450 $2.1750 $1.9050 $1.9488 $2.2050 $1.8675
Los Angeles................$1.8300 $1.9150 $1.8850 $2.0350 $2.0850 $2.3050 $2.0000 $1.8850 $1.9500 $2.2538 $2.0000

Spot prices for crude......11/04...10/28...10/21...10/14...10/07....9/30.....9/23....9/16.....9/09.....9/02.....8/26
WTI Cushing.................$60.60 $61.30 $61.05 $62.61 $61.81 $66.21 $64.67 $62.91 $64.21 $66.91 $66.71
Brent............................$60.48 $59.47 $56.94 $58.45 $57.29 $61.70 $62.17 $60.48 $62.62 $65.95 $67.26

Current crude prices:

CNBC reports $57.80 @ 1430 on 11/10/05

Finally, average spot prices of jet fuel (per gallon) by month (by quarter once the quarter is over):

Delivery point.....1Q05.....2Q05......3Q05.....Oct05.....Nov05*
NY Harbor...... $1.4861 $1.5833 $1.9253 $2.1438 $1.8633
Gulf Coast..... $1.4400 $1.5649 $1.9263 $2.3981 $1.7837
Los Angeles.. $1.5228 $1.7008 $1.9585 $2.0166 $1.8272
*thru 11/09/05

For probably the last time, unless something new happens to increase jet fuel spot prices relative to crude, here is the chart showing daily spot prices for jet fuel and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

[The attachment feature doesn't seem to be working - I'll post the chart whenever the feature resumes working]

As can be seen, jet fuel spot prices are lower than they were the last trading day before hurricane Katrina made landfall (as is WTI crude). The so-called "crack spread" has also returned to pre-Katrina levels, as can be seen in the chart. To be more exact, here is the spread per barrel between the average of the 3 delivery points for jet fuel (Gulf Coast, NY Harbor, and Los Angeles) and WTI:

08/26/05 - $15.86
10/04/05 - $43.48 (this was the peak)
11/09/05 - $15.18

Jim
 
$15 seems like a fair premium for the refining process - at least it's better than $43.48 (which is more than a dollar a gallon). Especially since a barrel of oil generally does not yield 42 gallons of jet fuel.
 

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