Something that we do in our firm every December is to solicit everyone's best prognostication for our industry. We always feel it is a healthy exercise in trend analysis and often reveals some solid thinking. Even areas that we only obliquely deal with have been remarkable well commented upon. We also look back and see where we went wrong. Seems as if no other industry would be so open for this type of exercise than the airline. So, please, throw in your ideas - you may even be the first!
After I had read a brief article in the European press about a possible EADS (Airbus) investment in United's exit from bankruptcy, I thought that this was going to be the path. Now, after the announcement of two main houses stepping into the breech, I see that this guess was off target. Even thought I do not know anything of United's plans, I still could not imagine that they would be in a position to cement a large Airbus order in conjunction with financing. Only if Theodore grew explosively would such a scenario come to fruition.
My guess for 2004? It would be that United will secure the ATSB guarantee (remember it is not the money, simply the guarantee). I cannot be convinced that Mr. Tilton and the chaps from J.P. Morgan are not working hand-in-glove with the ATSB on this. I do not think Morgan would have allowed this announcement if they did not have an idea in which direction the winds are blowing. I also do not see United ceding Dulles this next year. Having a hub in the capital of the former colonies is too valuable irrespective of Airways' plans in other nearby cities. I also believe there will be a winnowing of the LCCs. It is going to happen in Europe and it will probably happen in the U.S. as well. Overall, when United exits, there is a window of opportunity for them to suddenly become the fair haired lad of the industry. A tough task, yes, but if Tilton plays it adroitly, I could see it happening.
Ideas?
After I had read a brief article in the European press about a possible EADS (Airbus) investment in United's exit from bankruptcy, I thought that this was going to be the path. Now, after the announcement of two main houses stepping into the breech, I see that this guess was off target. Even thought I do not know anything of United's plans, I still could not imagine that they would be in a position to cement a large Airbus order in conjunction with financing. Only if Theodore grew explosively would such a scenario come to fruition.
My guess for 2004? It would be that United will secure the ATSB guarantee (remember it is not the money, simply the guarantee). I cannot be convinced that Mr. Tilton and the chaps from J.P. Morgan are not working hand-in-glove with the ATSB on this. I do not think Morgan would have allowed this announcement if they did not have an idea in which direction the winds are blowing. I also do not see United ceding Dulles this next year. Having a hub in the capital of the former colonies is too valuable irrespective of Airways' plans in other nearby cities. I also believe there will be a winnowing of the LCCs. It is going to happen in Europe and it will probably happen in the U.S. as well. Overall, when United exits, there is a window of opportunity for them to suddenly become the fair haired lad of the industry. A tough task, yes, but if Tilton plays it adroitly, I could see it happening.
Ideas?
American Airlines will have 'issues'. NW will have 'issues'. SW magic still occurs with the still bizarre notion that happy employees make for productive employees. Finally, I will win the lottery, retire at that moment, and wake up realizing that this was all one bad nightmare....Only then will I be able to live the hedonistic lifestyle they promised me when I hired on here....Ok, I'm kidding....Cheers!
