Mergers coming soon....

[PO'ed PHX Ramper]

I LOVE this threads title!!


Kind of like the guy who wanted to know where the sun came from so he waited until morning when it dawned on him

Thank you oh Master Of The Obvious.

Bob, you've been in a nasty mood lately judging from your posts. You insult people like you've got a Ph.D in profanity <_<

 

[JS]

I am sitting in LAS waiting for a redeye for about 4 hours. It's scarry how dead this place it is. (even with a reduced Tues Sked)

It's always been like that, especially on a Tuesday evening, after the daytime flights are gone, before the red-eyes pick up, and besides that, the airport is huge. The biggest crowd is at the security checkpoint and on the train before everyone fans out in the concourses.

 

[nycbusdriver]

I would guess a UAL deal would result in more divestitures on the east side than the west. Like maybe The Shuttle and slots and gates at DCA & LGA. With a hub at IAD the chances are PHL would be the loser.

But it's a moot point since the UAL pilots will never let it happen. The hand that controls the parking break can accomplish a lot.

Actually, a UAL merger would probably result in very few divestitures from the east side. That was already done by Wolf in the 2000-2001 time frame when the second merger attempt was made. (Remember, we basically gave up BWI to make the merger more palatable to the DOJ.) There is no reason whatsoever to get rid of the Shuttle because of UAL merger.

All of this took place pre-9/11 and pre-UAL/USA bankruptcies. In the wake of those events, the DOJ would be loathe to hold up airline consolidation, especially if the threat of more Chapter 11 filings (UAL, maybe, for a second round?) would be in the mix.

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

The shuttle would seem to be one thing we have that the others don't.

 

[Coffee_Tea_Or_Me]

The shuttle would seem to be one thing we have that the others don't.

When US/UA attempted to merge in 2000, I recall hearing that a lot of DCA would have to be sold because US is the dominant carrier at DCA and UA is dominant at IAD. Rather than sale their slots to a competitor, the proposal was to create a new airline, DC Air. US Airways then launched a new express carrier, Potomac Air, that was to later become DC Air. DC Air was to be owned by Robert Johnson and would have been the first African-American owned airline. Also worthy of mentioning here is at that time, Robert Johnson sat on the US board of directors. DC Air was to purchase the F-100s, I think.

 

[bigbusboy]

If I were the CEO of AA, UA, NW or DL contemplating a merger with US, I would have to first answer the obvious question. What does US bring to the merger that would add value to the newly formed airline? The true answer is not much. An argument could be made for PHL, CLT, shuttle and landing slots in LGA and DCA. But our meager international ops brings almost nothing to anyone, except maybe NW. And our widebody fleet fits into no other widebody fleet, again except maybe NW. PHX and LAS bring no value to anyone. My point is the next round of consolidation probably won't involve US unless we are the aquirer. And based on DL's reaction last year, I don't think that is going to happen. US might actually be better off not getting involved this time. Instead focus on fixing what we have, building from our assets, growing on our own and creating a brand new LCC from the ground up; all the while enjoying the benefits of reduced industry capacity created from everyone else consolidating. Let everyone else do the dirty work.

 

[FWAAA]

When US/UA attempted to merge in 2000, I recall hearing that a lot of DCA would have to be sold because US is the dominant carrier at DCA and UA is dominant at IAD. Rather than sale their slots to a competitor, the proposal was to create a new airline, DC Air. US Airways then launched a new express carrier, Potomac Air, that was to later become DC Air. DC Air was to be owned by Robert Johnson and would have been the first African-American owned airline. Also worthy of mentioning here is at that time, Robert Johnson sat on the US board of directors. DC Air was to purchase the F-100s, I think.

Correct. DC Air was to get many of the AA F-100s in addition to the US F-100s. The plan was for UAL and AA to jointly own the US Shuttle ops.

 

[bigbusboy]

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/b...irline1205.html

Read this article! It makes some very good points. The best point being if a merger between UA and US made sense, it would have happened by now.

 

[Tiger 1050]

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/b...irline1205.html

Read this article! It makes some very good points. The best point being if a merger between UA and US made sense, it would have happened by now.

Bigbusboy,
It sounds as if you have missed your calling as an airline analyst on wall street... 🙄

 

[deltawatch]

If I were the CEO of AA, UA, NW or DL contemplating a merger with US, I would have to first answer the obvious question. What does US bring to the merger that would add value to the newly formed airline? The true answer is not much. An argument could be made for PHL, CLT, shuttle and landing slots in LGA and DCA. But our meager international ops brings almost nothing to anyone, except maybe NW. And our widebody fleet fits into no other widebody fleet, again except maybe NW. PHX and LAS bring no value to anyone. My point is the next round of consolidation probably won't involve US unless we are the aquirer. And based on DL's reaction last year, I don't think that is going to happen. US might actually be better off not getting involved this time. Instead focus on fixing what we have, building from our assets, growing on our own and creating a brand new LCC from the ground up; all the while enjoying the benefits of reduced industry capacity created from everyone else consolidating. Let everyone else do the dirty work.

Airline Stocks Rise on Lower Oil, Buyout Speculation


NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors have been pushing for airline consolidation to cut costs. Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl expects UAL and Northwest Airlines Corp. to be potential sellers and Delta, US Airways Group Inc., AMR Corp. and Continental Airlines Inc. to be potential buyers.

"Most of the participating parties seem to be ready to 'get on with the show,'" Neidl said in a note to investors, "including labor, managements, and financiers/the market -- even government regulators are moving in that direction." He noted that he does not expect consolidation to be "imminent, but when it comes it will be fast and furious."

 

[bigbusboy]

Bigbusboy,
It sounds as if you have missed your calling as an airline analyst on wall street... 🙄

Nope just observant. But I will offer one more analysis. DP has proven nothing yet to investors and Wall Street. He has yet to merge the labor forces, meaning still two separate companies. The operation of the combined HP/US is the worst of all carriers. The customer service rankings are off the charts...from the wrong end. The stock is tanking. The RES system and WWW are third world at best. The list could go on. He has yet to successfully merge two airlines. I'll bet he's having trouble getting investor support right now, meaning money, to do what he wants to do. The money just isn't as accessible as it was last year for DL. Investors want to see real evidence of DP being successful at merging two airlines first. I'm sure he wants to merge with UA or NW or do some sort of deal with anybody. He just can't get the money to do it. And this is the reason why he sent SK to Wall Street the other day to say we are a huge proponent of industry consolidation ready and willing, we just need investor support.....money to do it. Please help.

 

[Freighterguynow]

Wow. With Nicolau, where would that leave you? On furlough yet again??

Once the Western furloughs begin, no one in their right minds would entertain a joint contract that exposes the East to St. Nic.

 

[Elevation]

Nope just observant. But I will offer one more analysis. DP has proven nothing yet to investors and Wall Street. He has yet to merge the labor forces, meaning still two separate companies. The operation of the combined HP/US is the worst of all carriers. The customer service rankings are off the charts...from the wrong end. The stock is tanking. The RES system and WWW are third world at best. The list could go on. He has yet to successfully merge two airlines. I'll bet he's having trouble getting investor support right now, meaning money, to do what he wants to do. The money just isn't as accessible as it was last year for DL. Investors want to see real evidence of DP being successful at merging two airlines first. I'm sure he wants to merge with UA or NW or do some sort of deal with anybody. He just can't get the money to do it.

One fact that overcomes all, Parker has almost made a BILLION dollars in PROFIT since this train wreck began. I you want to be creditable you have to start there and end there, its business.

 

[bigbusboy]

One fact that overcomes all, Parker has almost made a BILLION dollars in PROFIT since this train wreck began. I you want to be creditable you have to start there and end there, its business.

Very true, however, success is not measured by cash in the bank short term, but rather strong cash flow and profits long term. Based on today's operation, that is questionable. This is what investors/Wall Street look at.

 

[PA18]

Wow. With Nicolau, where would that leave you? On furlough yet again??

What will be interesting is how the Nicolau award will affect the UAL pilots in any upcoming merger.

The ALPA merger policy was changed to remove the importance of date-of-hire in 1991, and rumor has it that this change was at the behest of the UAL pilots and their representatives. Then, UAL hired like mad for years after that, and enjoyed years of quick movement up the list.

But remember, that was almost 17 years ago. One would expect -- and I don't know, but would welcome the info from any UAL types monitoring this frequency -- what your average garden variety 17-year pilot at UAL can hold as far as seat, equipment, and domicile, but I would expect they are reasonably far up the food chain by now.

So let's say that UAL merges with another ALPA airline. The pilot seniority fight will go to arbitration. (It always does.) But now the most recent iteration of "ALPA Merger Policy" is the Nicolau award. We know that ol' George is off the list of potential arbitrators, but what is the next arbitrator going to do? Use the most recent arbitrations as a template. And two of the most recent arbitrations among ALPA carriers are... US Airways/America West and US Airways/US Airways Shuttle.

Both done by George Niclolau. Both done the same way. By slotting. (Because US Airways had retired its last 727, and had no more flight engineers, The US Shuttle flight engineers were treated the same way as the furloughed pilots at US Airways in the AWA merger. They were stapled. So in siding with Nicolau, in his zeal to screw the US East pilots, the UAL pilot neutral essentially threw his own furloughed fellow UAL pilots under the bus in any upcoming merger.)

So the 17-year UAL captain could very well see a pilot from a younger, smaller airline leapfrog him or her in seniority, if Nicolau is used as the template. Even if UAL and the combined USA/AWA merge, while the UAL pilots might delight in seeing the US East pilots not get DOH seniority, they may also find themselves looking up at a US West pilot who was hired after they were.

It seems pretty obvious that ALPA merger policy eliminated DOH as a defense against the old fart pilots of USAir and TWA. (Pan Am and Eastern were already gone by then.) In that same vein of one-way thinking, the French built the Maginot Line facing Germany, to defend themselves against that one enemy.

But just as the Germans eventually entered France through Belgium and the Netherlands -- and by flying airplanes over the Maginot Line and dropping paratroopers behind it -- so might the 1991 ALPA merger policy prove to be an obsolete defense of the seniority of the UAL pilots.