My Real Concern...

[Rico]

I spent A LOT of time on here yesterday, wrestling with a variety of others more or less over the general state of things at US Airways.

I apologize if at times it became a bit testy, or uncivil. But I have to be honest that my level of anxiety has increased lately, and it reflected upon my posts.

I used to think, "no problem, we will just re-enter BK, force changes upon those who did not change with the rest, clean the balance sheet, and out we come a stronger company for it..."

I do not think that way anymore. Oh, IMO I still see BK looming over us, but not reorganization, I doubt we will even get the chance anymore...


To be honest, my greatest concern has NOTHING to do with past or current management, the IAM, ALPA, none of that.


My greatest concern right now is...

Oil is at 46$ a barrel.

What that means, is that the people that invested into US Airways, and those which US Airways owes a lot of money to are looking at us in a different light.


With oil at 46$ a barrel, IMO they are seriously thinking that their best bet is not to allow another attempt at bankruptcy reorganization.

IMO They are starting to consider shutting US Airways down, splitting up the remaining cash, and selling the assets of value (such as DCA/LGA slots and so on)


With oil at 46$ a barrel, they (the creditors) are less willing to chance their inveswtment on our possible turnaround.

They pull their funding, then they pull our plug.

It is not personal, it is just business. If the creditors think that after reorganizing we can be as successful as planned, then they will stay the course. But, with Fuel at 46$ a barrel, they are already unsure.


THE ONE set of investors that WILL get screwed over if US Airways falls is the employees.

YOU are an investor, ALL your concessions really were was an investment into US Airways. You did so looking to keep US Airways afloat, and to hopefully get returns later on.

I have heard endless complaints on how you have "invested" enough, that you will not do so anymore. But if you tink about it, if US Airways fails, then you have lost all the money you invested into it beforehand.

It is not the fault of Mr. Bronner or lakefield that oil is at 46$ a barrel. Nor is it the fault of Steve W, Dave S, or the company at all.

But reality is that 46$ a barrel oil will sink this company unless we are willing to further invest in our future. Allow us to survive long enough for normal gas prices to return, allow us to survive long enough to make real changes and bring in real revenue

But most of all, to show the OTHER investors that we are willing to save our company. If we do not have that kind of faith i our own company, why should they...?

 

[Rico]

The union hired investment banker Michael Glanzer to examine whether the $300 million in concessions the company seeks from pilots is warranted. In his report, released last week, he says pilots have two choices: Cut a deal now on the most favorable terms, or "be prepared to accept liquidation."

The report bolsters management's previous claims that US Airways' finances are so dire that it might seek bankruptcy protection by mid-September. It would be the airline's second filing in two years.

Glanzer writes that a second bankruptcy filing could lead to failure mainly because wary creditors have made claims on the airline's cash to protect themselves. Also, he said, US Airways now faces more competition from discounters, and has fewer potential lenders willing to finance a turnaround.

US Airways faces mounting skepticism from financing partners such as GE Capital (Parent: GE) and American Express (AXP), he writes. If one pulls the plug on financing, he writes, "They all will, and the airline will fail."

 

[Walmartgreeter]

I agree Rico. There is NO second BK, only an ordered breakup and sale. On the other hand, a simple move of oil to $50 could negate any need for concessions...it might simply be the end. Concessions with oil dropping might be the opposite of the perfect storm...maybe a chance for U to survive. I really don't think we are looking at a problem of U employees giving until it hurts...rather it is a TOTAL mistrust of management's intents that is the problem. Look at Lakefield's tantrums...yet he ALLOWS middle management to trash current contracts while asking for a good faith leap into further concessions. This IS a problem of leadership, and Lakefield is trying to play both sides, hoping his friendly side can win consessions, while his angry side can force the issues without accountibility. Most of the unions are at the table...only they are being the fed the same leaderless exchanges of offers..Jet Blue, Air Tran..etc. Not going to work! He had better become educated, start honoring CURRENT contracts (including the mechanics) and move forward. The pilots alone have made some very large offers...but are being ignored in the hopes management can get "even more." "Even more" will be the death of this company. Thanks for the jumpoff to a rant. Best. Greeter.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Rico,
it is easy to blame the current industry problems on oil but the reality is that the last 3 years have seen one event (excuse) after another. Other airlines (predominantly of the LCC variety) have weathered the same storms and are growing. Businesses have to be able to absorb a certain amount of difficulty as part of their industry. High oil prices are always a risk in a transportation business. Washington and the business community are no longer interested in excuses for why the legacy airlines can't make it. At this point, they are willing to allow economic forces to work. And just like Bank of America or the ATSB, employees have a limit to what they will invest in order to keep the enterprise running. Since the bulk of the restructuring of US has been borne by the employees, it is they who may be the first to say "enough is enough". Employees who realize there is no longer a viable economic reality for continuing to prop up US should not be castigated any more than any other investor.

Change is very frightening. I wish you well but also encourage you to seek the counsel of people outside of the industry that can help you sort through the changes you have faced and will face. And obviously develop multiple contingency plans - something neither US or UA has done well.

 

[cavalier]

I agree Rico. There is NO second BK, only an ordered breakup and sale. On the other hand, a simple move of oil to $50 could negate any need for concessions...it might simply be the end. Concessions with oil dropping might be the opposite of the perfect storm...maybe a chance for U to survive. I really don't think we are looking at a problem of U employees giving until it hurts...rather it is a TOTAL mistrust of management's intents that is the problem. Look at Lakefield's tantrums...yet he ALLOWS middle management to trash current contracts while asking for a good faith leap into further concessions. This IS a problem of leadership, and Lakefield is trying to play both sides, hoping his friendly side can win consessions, while his angry side can force the issues without accountibility. Most of the unions are at the table...only they are being the fed the same leaderless exchanges of offers..Jet Blue, Air Tran..etc. Not going to work! He had better become educated, start honoring CURRENT contracts (including the mechanics) and move forward. The pilots alone have made some very large offers...but are being ignored in the hopes management can get "even more." "Even more" will be the death of this company. Thanks for the jumpoff to a rant. Best. Greeter.

[post="169496"][/post]​

Excellent Post! Poignantly Concise.

 

[Rico]

My thinking is, that IF US Airways goes under, than all of that hard work, and ALL of the concessions that we all gave beforehand are really wasted.

If US airways goes under then we all will face a 100% pay cut.


Unemployment Compensation, well takes up to four weeks to start coming in most states from what I have read checking the various state webpages.

Cobra for health coverage, geeze :blink: , I got a estimate when leaving my old plan with Allegheny, was like $500+ a month


I understand people are pissed off, and mad that they gave before thinking that would be enough. All in all I figure I went from 55K to 35K a year, hoping that would "be enough".

But really,

All that aside. I REALLY doubt anymore that any of our petty arguments are going to matter anymore. We either buck up and make further concessions, or the money men will figure they will make more closing us down and selling off everything.

Not much to argue about there.

The idea that it is already a "losing cause" already me too. Why give up and close the doors for sure in SEP, if we can fight to save this place.

The other investors/creditors are willing to stay the course if both the employees do what is necessary, and the company changes (like it is already starting to do),

If they have not counted us out yet, then no one should.

But make no mistake, what Mr Bronner has said, what Mr Lakefiled has said, is no tactic or ploy...

Oil is 46$ a barrel, and if we are forced into BK, that means IMOP we are not coming out. We are lucky to have this last chance.

Hate the further cuts, don't blame ya, but you will stiull have a paycheck, and can land a new job while still getting paid, while still under health coverage, while still able to travel...

Even if you think US is still doomed, and concessions will only prolong the death, then think of it as that much longer that you can set yourself up with a new job.


I do not like the choices, but with Oil at 46$ a barrel, I do not see much in the way of other options.

Peace B)

 

[Rico]

World,

Whatever Management has or has not done will not matter a bit if we are closed down by our creditors.

Will it...?



IT IS Mr Lakefield's responsibility to deal with whatever has occurred, and to follow through on what was planned and promised. I agree.

But, it will not matter if the creditors close the doors, and sell off assets to recoup their funds.

They will get something if US Airways closes, Employees will get nothing



Enough already with the sins of the past, Staying alive is what matters now.


IF you are already gone, then good for you, hope you are happy. But for those of us that remain. We either make it work, or watch it fall.

I have not heard a rational reason to let Airways fail, past and present managment errors certainily IS NO reason to let Airways die, is it...?


These are people's jobs and familes we are talking about now, wishing that Airways die is beyond petty. Refusing to do anything while others are trying to save your job is unethical.

Oil not at 46$ a barrel = room to play "the game"

Oil at 46$ a barrel = We go into BK, no more games, the lights just go out...

 

[BoeingBoy]

Rico,

Maybe you should listen to the professional investors - "It is not personal, it is just business."

"What that means, is that the people that invested into US Airways, and those which US Airways owes a lot of money to are looking at us in a different light." And yet you say that the employees that have invested more in U than anyone else should not look at U in a different light. They (and remember, so far it's just mainline employees in the crosshairs) have more right than anyone to say "it's not personal, it's just business. We're not going to bail out a failing enterprise again."

In one sense I "feel your pain". You're on the outside, at least as far as the negotiations with mainline employees go. You can't call your union rep and tell them to "do whatever it takes" to try and keep this place afloat. So in effect you're asking others to help you keep your job. Those same people who made your current job possible. After all, would MDA have gotten off the ground without the mainline concessions leading up to and during the first BK.

Other thoughts...

You've said in another thread that your personal "bottom line" is $35 per hour (if I'm off $1 or so, forgive me - I pulled the figure from memory). So you've set your personal bottom line. Why then so much pleading with others who've merely done the same, whatever their bottom line is.

In another thread (or maybe the same one) you talked about how U employees need to be "more productive". This is one of my personal favorites - and I'm not picking on just you but any of those who have said the same thing.

Maybe you can have your wife show you where in her CBA it says that the podiums at most of the gates in PHL or CLT have to be staffed at the same time, then the CSA's get to take a break until it's time to staff most of those podiums at the same time again. Chances are she won't be able to find it. That's because the lack of productivity this produces is the result of the way management has the airline structured (traditional hub and spoke), not the fault of the CSA's. The same goes for the folks loading bags, catering, servicing lavs, etc.

Perhaps you can get a mainline mechanic to show you where in his CBA it says that he must call maintenance control before he can perform any but the simpliest or most routine maintenance (tighten a knob, change a lightbult, do a daily inspection). Instead of beginning work, he spends 5 minutes on the phone first Chances are he won't find that in his CBA either. It's the system management has set up for him to work in.

Perhaps you can get a mainline pilot to show you where in their CBA it says we can't fly over 55 or so block hours a month (that's the number management claims is true). That's probably not in there either. When every pilot that can is flying 85 hours a month (for not only the $$$ in the paycheck but the $$$ in the new pension scheme), then what brings the average down? Could it be the multiple fleet types (more training on average), the more senior workforce having more average vacation/sick usage/etc, the extra "pad" in the schedules (especially PHL) to keep the on-time stats good, the extra taxi time at PHL (because of the chronic congestion), etc. And who signed the order for the multiple fleet types, who downsized the airline so much, who "pads" the schedules, who hasn't depeaked the PHL operation, etc? I don't know of any line pilot who did any of that.

To blame the employees that have kept this airline going, and going pretty well at that, for a lack of productivity when they have had no say in creating the model that imposes poor productivity on them is impolite at best.

Jim

 

[Walmartgreeter]

" I REALLY doubt anymore that any of our petty arguments are going to matter anymore. We either buck up and make further concessions, or the money men will figure they will make more closing us down and selling off everything."

So you are on the Titanic, and the Captain comes to you and says if you jump off now, he might be able to save the ship, and your family. You have NO faith in the Captain, and think he is dishonest. You choose to stay ON the ship and spend the last moments WITH your family...knowing full well any concession to said leader was simply wasted. WEAK story, I know...but just doing something, anything in the face of adversity is NOT always the solution. Sometimes its just out of your control, aka "oil." Fly safe, and think of each leg as maybe your last! Not such an awful idea, especially in light of what just happened in Florida. Rico, nice posts by the way. And of course I agree that the employees of U must help as much as possible...just make it count. Greeter.

 

[Mike]

PA unemployment max..1600.00 per month for 24 weeks..after that 0. Insurance for a family..min 500.00 per month. Just a few points to ponder for those who want full pay till the last day. We are now surrounded by lean mean airlines. PS..creditors do not care if you lost your job or not..they want their money. Signed ..a former USAirways employee. DOF..January, 2002

 

[WorldTraveler]

Rico,
you are right that the creditors are likely to keep US afloat unless the employees or any other investor decides they are no longer willing to keep US alive. In reality, it is very hard to profitably redeploy assets, particularly for the Boeings which have very limited resale value. Even the Airbuses are difficult to redeploy given that Airbus is cranking out new ones so fast that no new airline wants to mess with anyone's leftovers. Airbus is interested in market share, not residual value.

While it is true that the ship will keep going as long as everyone wants to stay onboard, the cracks are clearly growing and it will really only take one party for the ship to run aground.

 

[700UW]

Excellent post Jim

 

[cavalier]

Rico,
you are right that the creditors are likely to keep US afloat unless the employees or any other investor decides they are no longer willing to keep US alive. In reality, it is very hard to profitably redeploy assets, particularly for the Boeings which have very limited resale value. Even the Airbuses are difficult to redeploy given that Airbus is cranking out new ones so fast that no new airline wants to mess with anyone's leftovers. Airbus is interested in market share, not residual value.

While it is true that the ship will keep going as long as everyone wants to stay onboard, the cracks are clearly growing and it will really only take one party for the ship to run aground.

[post="169526"][/post]​

This is what I was trying to say in an earlier post where some people believe that the books are cooked, sure they are. It comes down to how bad the employees want this baby to continue, that simple. This is exactly why I have been saying U is finished because it sure as hell seems the employees no longer care enough to bleed themselves for what they feel is a hopeless cause. And I don't believe some white knight will come in at the last second and save the day either.

But we shall soon see if that knight in shiny armor comes galloping in just in the nick of time, but I am not going to bet good money on it. I think this gold mine has been mined out and the smart money is now looking to greener pastures to lay their money. The money people unlike the U employees look at this situation in a completely different reality then the one we live in. Reality: something that constitutes a real or actual thing, as distinguished from something that is merely apparent.

 

[to much time to quit]

It is not the fault of Mr. Bronner or lakefield that oil is at 46$ a barrel. Nor is it the fault of Steve W, Dave S, or the company at all.

But reality is that 46$ a barrel oil will sink this company unless we are willing to further invest in our future. Allow us to survive long enough for normal gas prices to return, allow us to survive long enough to make real changes and bring in real revenue

[post="169486"][/post]​

I got a great idea, will put a special clause in all of our new giveback agreements. When the fuel prices turn around so do the concessions! To bad thats a pipe dream because the reality is this company wants it all from us. :down: They wouldn't even consider it. I personally would never agree to anymore givebacks anyway. The rides been nice and I'm going to stay on till the end.

 

[NeedForSpeedNFS]

PA unemployment max..1600.00 per month for 24 weeks..after that 0. Insurance for a family..min 500.00 per month. Just a few points to ponder for those who want full pay till the last day. We are now surrounded by lean mean airlines. PS..creditors do not care if you lost your job or not..they want their money. Signed ..a former USAirways employee. DOF..January, 2002

[post="169525"][/post]​

Scare tactics.....Pure and simple!!!! When the doors close, and they will, you do what you need to do to survive!!! Is unenemployment helpful?? of course!!! People.....be resourceful!!!! Do what needs to be done, and survive!!! THERE IS LIFE AFTER USAIRWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!