Next new Destination ?

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Ok fellow AAers,
As I "glance" around the globe, I feel AA is running out of places to fly to.(Meaning "places" that make SENSE for AA)
With europe pretty well covered, + the addition of India,and Ireland, I don't really see any "voids" in the system.(I still think we should fly JFK-ATH)(I realize ATH CAN be "problematic")

Middle East..."FORGET IT" !!!!
Africa.....????

Mexico/Carribean/Central/South America... "COVERED like a blanket"

Which leaves the FAR East, especially CHINA.
Seems like EVERYONE is flying to Beijing(SP?) from the USA

So whats left in China, or near Mainland China ?
HKG or Taiwan ?? And from where ? ORD??

Lastly I think we should Fly to SYD. But SYD to where?
(If AA had the a/c that could fly SYD-ORD, they probably do it in a Heartbeat.

Your thoughts ???

NH/BB's

 

[FWAAA]

As open skies agreements have spread, there are very few places left where competition is limited - and limits tend to equal wildly profitable. Like LHR and NRT. Both subject to very restrictive treaties. Same thing with China, although the new China agreement provides for substantial expansion of flights in the next several years.

And thus my prediction: AA applies for and is granted additional route authorities and frequencies in the next round. That's where the restricted expansion opportunities lie, and they may very well be profitable.

Either that or it buys ScabAir and quintuples its China flying overnight. Pare down the once-proud Redtail by dumping the commodity aspects (like MEM, MSP and much of DTW) and keep the valuable parts - like NRT and China. Yep, we've discussed it before, and I still think this is how it plays out.

 

[B.O.B.]

Either that or it buys ScabAir and quintuples its China flying overnight. Pare down the once-proud Redtail by dumping the commodity aspects (like MEM, MSP and much of DTW) and keep the valuable parts - like NRT and China. Yep, we've discussed it before, and I still think this is how it plays out.

I agree with you 110%!

 

[MAH4546]

Middle East..."FORGET IT" !!!!
Africa.....????

Mexico/Carribean/Central/South America... "COVERED like a blanket"

NH/BB's

A handful of new markets to go into, especially in Brazil pending a new US-Brazil air treaty which is expected in 2006 - Brasilia, Manaus, Belem, Salvador, Fortaleza, Recife, and Belo Horizonte can all support 3x weekly service to MIA, at least. Manaus and Salvador already have MIA service on other airlines. Also Valencia, Cordoba, Iquitos, Roatan, return to Barranquilla, Porlamar, Merida, Quetarao(sp), Georgetown, Paramaibo, Cayman Brac, Grand Turk, new Bahamaian destinations (the problem with this is that AA is really hurting themselves not having anything smaller than the ATR-72s, because many destination can't support that large a plane), and small RJ markets in Mexico.

In the Middle East they can make a killing going to Tel Aviv, but then there would be those issues with flying there given the ex-TWA employee situation they had. Oh well...El Al starts Miami-Tel Aviv non-stops in March.

In Africa, given the proper equipment (i.e. 787s), Cape Town, Johannasburg, Dakar, Lagos, and Accra can prove to be profitable markets from MIA, IMO. MIA has great potential to be developed as a US-Africa hub, especially given that it is the closest major US city to most of Africa and also, as a result, already has strong cultural and economic ties to the region. In this respect we are talking very long-term (2010-2015) growth prospects, but potential none the less.

Look for service to Mumbai, India to be announced in 2006, probably via Brussels.

 

[Kev3188]

In the Middle East they can make a killing going to Tel Aviv, but then there would be those issues with flying there given the ex-TWA employee situation they had. Oh well...El Al starts Miami-Tel Aviv non-stops in March.

(If I can stray off topic for just a second here....)

What was the end result of the dispute with the TLV TWA'ers?

 

[flyhigh]

...from a coulpe different people, I've heard that twice before (once before the acquisition & once as part of) AA had an assessment compiled on serving TLV. It seems logical given the large JFK presence. What the assessments stated was that there is no bigger target than a big shiny plane with the word "American" across the side of it. Unfortunate, but I think that until there is true piece there, AA will stay out...most likely, so will UA given both having been targeted during 9/11...

 

[L1011Ret]

TLV had too many employees, and given the rather restrictive State sponsored labor rules, it was impossible to reduce staffing to make the station profitable unless you did some intra-european flying as TWA did like TLV-ATH, TLV-FCO, TLV-CDG, etc.

And as noted here, big signs saying AMERICAN are likely to be targets for terrorists.

 

[WorldTraveler]

NHBB,
AA has a rather small European route network; lots of flights but most go to one city. DL and CO have AA beat hands down to continental Europe. There are alot of places AA could go in Europe.

The middle east comments are certainly true but remember that El Al is DL's partner, not AA's and DL is going there as well.

As for India, BOM is possible but I don't think AA would jump into the market via Europe now when other carriers will be flying nonstop to the US in a couple years. DL and NW already provide plenty of India capacity via Europe.

As for Africa, it is an untapped market for US airlines but JFK is the closest gateway to Africa, not MIA. And AA could fly to Africa now; South African can't fly nonstop to the US in both directions and no US airline has the 777-200LR on order - it's not even certain the 787 could fly JNB-JFK northbound given the high elevation at JNB.

Yes, there is probably some South American potential left to be tapped but AA's best prospects are in developing Asia and they could do that now if they had planes - or reallocated the ones that have.

 

[TWAnr]

TLV had too many employees, and given the rather restrictive State sponsored labor rules...

Here are some additional details:

But more than 75 employees of TWA in Tel Aviv stand to lose not only their jobs but severance pay and pension benefits, which are protected by Israeli law, not American law. They say American's decision to suspend service just doesn't make sense.

"TWA has the best [time] slot for JFK," said Noah Neumann, Supervisor of Maintenance for TWA. The direct flights depart from Israel at 1:00 a.m. and arrive in New York at 6:00 a.m., leaving the entire day free for business, and returning at 10:30 p.m. to Israel, Neumann said.

A statement from the AMR, parent company of American, said that if the airlines continued the TWA route and later decided to discontinue it, "American might be expected to take on TWA's obligations to pay severance to its employees, which could total as much as $9 million to $18 million. Combined with the other market factors, this presented an unacceptable financial risk for the airline."

Neumann spoke of the TWA employees as being like a family, working together day and night for the corporation.

He headed a delegation of employees, which this week pressed its case for benefits in a bankruptcy court in Delaware. The judge agreed they had a good case, but by the time they could win it, he warned, there might not be any money left to pay them.

But the main problem for the employees, Neumann said, is that no one from American Airlines will speak to them.

American Airlines Stopping Tel Aviv Route, Prompting Outcry

I'll just add that Tel Aviv District Court Judge Varda Alshech entered a judgement against AA for the value of the lost severance pay suffered by the former TWA employees. TWA, under AA management while still operating under the US Bankruptcy Court supervision, pulled out of TLV in the stealth of the night, stranding a crew in TLV for several days until they were DH out of there on BA, for fear that the airplane would be impounded.

 

[L1011Ret]

TWAnr' post says it all. The article he posted, American Airlines Stopping Tel Aviv Route, Prompting Outcry, is just about the way I understood it too. TWA also had other good routes like Milan and Madrid but they were way overstaffed too. As I remember it, TWA had about 85 employees in MAD for one flight a day. JFK-FCO was also another year round route that did well. AA pulled out of Cairo-Riyad too, I think because of political considerations after 9/11. My spouse was supposed to be flying that trip that night but AA cancelled.

Then again TWA had some other routes passed to AA like Tunis and Tripoli that might have some future value.

 

[jimntx]

As much as I would like to see AA serve Italy, I know from my years at Texaco that doing business at a profit in Italy is almost impossible. When I was at Texaco, even MANAGERS in Italy had a union! (I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but the Managers Union cut across a lot of industries and companies.)

Our head of Information Technology at Texaco Italie lead a department that had less than 15 employees. Yet, he was entitled to 7 weeks paid vacation a year. If he decided he didn't want/need all of that, the company was required to buy back unwanted vacation if declared in advance, or pay after the end of the year for any unused vacation. The manager admitted to me that each year he notified the company that he wanted only 4 weeks vacation. The company then had to pay him a lump sum equal to the other 3 weeks pay immediately. He used that money to go on the other 4 weeks vacation.

IIRC, AA was flying to Milan when I first started with AA in 2000, but it was one of the first routes eliminated after 9/11.

 

[JFK777]

I think AA future is in extending the corners of it route map. India, China & South Africa should be on the horizon. Service to Moscow would be nice too. Hong Kong should be the main priority for Asia from ORD & DFW since Cathay has JFK & California well covered, both are ONEWORLD partners. South Africa from both JFK & Miami should be in the 4 year plan, I hope AA thinks of buying 777-200LR for these new longer range services. Bangkok, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei and other cities in Asia should be in the mix. DFW to Dubai, I doubt Emirates would fly to Texas, with 777-200LR for the oil industry, 25 years ago Braniff was talking Texas to Bahrain nonstop with 747SP. Since Qantas has an itch to NOT order the 777-200LR DFW to Sydney should go too. Just a few ideas on "extending" the corners of the route map.

 

[Imagolfer]

As much as I would like to see AA serve Italy, I know from my years at Texaco that doing business at a profit in Italy is almost impossible. When I was at Texaco, even MANAGERS in Italy had a union! (I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but the Managers Union cut across a lot of industries and companies.)

Our head of Information Technology at Texaco Italie lead a department that had less than 15 employees. Yet, he was entitled to 7 weeks paid vacation a year. If he decided he didn't want/need all of that, the company was required to buy back unwanted vacation if declared in advance, or pay after the end of the year for any unused vacation. The manager admitted to me that each year he notified the company that he wanted only 4 weeks vacation. The company then had to pay him a lump sum equal to the other 3 weeks pay immediately. He used that money to go on the other 4 weeks vacation.

IIRC, AA was flying to Milan when I first started with AA in 2000, but it was one of the first routes eliminated after 9/11.

HELLO!! AA does fly to Italy seasonally from Chicago and JFK to ROME!!!!

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I just took a look on BOEING.com,.. and was amazed at the 777-200LR-Worldliner. I hope we pick up a "half dozen" of these beauties. With a range of ORD(DFW)--SYD, I can't see were we need much more in the way of airplanes.

Sure we can replace the S-80's with more 737's, and the 787 to replace the 767-300's and 757's(When that time comes)

The only odd-ball is the A-300's, and there really is'nt a replacement a/c for that ol'(money making) pig.

When all is said and done, AA can operate a 3 airplane fleet..........737/777/787.

Talk about a money making/saving fleet !!

NH/BB's


ps,
YES FWAAA, I realize that the 777-200LR Worldliner "ONLY" has 2 engines !!!!!!!

 

[Kev3188]

L1011RET/TWAnr

Thank you for the info/links!