It’s quite late at night here in rainy Los Angeles (yes, it does happen) and I can’t sleep. My mind is racing with the endless scenarios of what will happen to our beloved US airline industry. Will Northwest survive Chapter 11? Will Delta survive Chapter 11? Will we all survive another WT post about the stone-etched certainty of United’s demise? So many questions; so few answers.
Before I start into the real meat of my post, I have to give some props to my favorite poster, NH/BB. I gotta tell you, I think your posts are hilarious. You're one funny dude. Your style is unique and you always make me laugh.
Now that the lovefest is over, let’s get on with it. This is my best "I'm just a passenger and I'm not in love with my airline of choice" shot at predicting (not prophesying – I’ve read what happens to those who claim that and turn out to be wrong) what will most certainly be a likely scenario for an industry-wide shakeout. (Warning: Bear's gonna love it and WT isn't.) In deference to our favorite Captain (the second funniest poster on this site), I call it: Project Turkey. Here goes:
AA buys DL (AA name stays)
US buys NW (US name stays)
CAL buys UA (UA name stays.)
B6 merges with F9 and buys Midwest (JetBlue name stays)
Here's where it gets fun:
AA trades the DL JFK hub, the non-GE 763s, and DL's BOS terminal to US for NW's Pacific routes, NW's 747s, NW's 787 delivery slots and US' BOS terminal. US keeps six slots and enough gates at NRT to run non-stops from their major hubs (PHL, JFK, PHX, DET, MSP, CLT).
At JAL’s request (or maybe something a bit stronger), AA realigns the NRT hub to service only deep SE Asia and southern India. All intra-Asian flying to China, Taiwan, and Korea is flown directly from US hubs.
US keeps the DL JFK European flying intact because the first three months of the expansion under the previous management was better than anyone expected and is clearly the path to world domination. (Putting his Masters Degree in Napoleonic History to good use, Mr. Parker suspends all flights to Moscow during the winter months.)
US closes (or at least heavily reduces) MEM, PIT (again!), and LAS as hubs.
AA closes (or at least heavily reduces) CVG and STL as hubs.
UA closes (or at least heavily reduces) CLE as a hub.
Since there is now only 1 US legacy airline not serving LHR (US) and one British airline not allowed to serve the US from LHR (BMI), the US DOT and the UK agree to thumb their noses at the EU and scrap B-II and phase in an open skies for LHR once T5 is completed. The EU sues the UK and the issue remains in European courts for 10 years, effectively keeping the lid on open skies for at least another decade.
AA purchases/leases 7 slots from BA at LHR for flights from ATL, DFW*, RDU* and SEA (more in a minute on this).
UA purchases/leases 10 slots from various alliance partners at LHR for flights from Denver*, Newark and Houston*.
US purchases/leases 12 slots from BMI for flights from JFK, PHL, DET, MSP, PHX, and CLT.*
(*only applicable upon successful completion of open skies)
UA trades CAL's 737NGs and 757s to AA for DLs 757s. (The combo of DLs and CAL's 737s allow AA to retire a boatload of MD80s and delays the neccessity of having to purchase a replacement for that type for at least 10 years; the extra 757s allow UA to fly from Newark to every airport in western Europe.)
Budweiser announces a 20% reduction in the price of a 6-pack of Bud products, due mainly to the dramatic drop in the cost of aluminum on the open market. Wall Street analysts agree that the rapid, near-simultaneous retirement of NWs DC9s, AA’s MD-80s, and all the 737-200, -300, and -400 series aircraft is the main cause.
US uses assets from hub restructuring to start focus-city/mini-hub at SAT.
(Here's my favorite part): AA trades the Western half of SLC (keeping the connections to major East Coast, Mid-West and all hub cities) to... Alaska. AK also gets the 737-700s and -900s (from CAL). AA gets AK's LAX hub (AK keeping flights to SEA, PDX, SLC and DCA if they can't move the rights). AK moves their LAX operation to Term 5. AA makes Term 3 into their AE operation. AA announces that LAX will be the long-anticipated Pacific/Asian and Central American Gateway/hub. (Don’t worry AA fans, it will be dismantled two years later.)
AK takes over DL’s gates at SFO and consolidates them with what they already have. AK uses Mexican Gateway strategy at SFO that they used at LAX. AK also provides low-fare option at SFO, thereby forcing another 2 year delay on Virgin America as it now must choose its hub from very competitive, attractive offers made by CVG, SJC, MEM, STL, PIT, RDU, SJC, BNA, and Reno (trend, anyone?).
AA uses DL's 764s to replace the Airbii. Or, since that might actually happen, they decide to use the 764s to set up a second US-Asia hub in HNL, flying to HKG (you knew they’d get there eventually!), ICN, NRT, TPE, etc... (Actually, come to think of it, that idea is my favorite part.)
B6 becomes the first successful hybrid airline (US abandons the plan with the purchase of NW) with hubs in JFK, DEN, MKE and MCI and focus cities in LGB and MCO. (You know, with the exception of the terminal situation at MCI, that’s not a bad hub structure. Has anyone mentioned this before?)
AK buys and changes their name to Western Airlines. Gerry G. joins Western's BOD.
Alan Mullaly asks Doug Steenland to come on board as the new VP of Labor Relations at Ford Motor. News of the offer is leaked to the Wall Street Journal. Ford drops 25% in 3 hours, forcing a halt in trading on the company’s stock. However, it rebounds to a 52-week high later in the day when reports surface that Steenland has turned down the job and will instead take the helm of Airbus’ A380 program.
AK (ne, WA) joins oneworld and gets ATI with BA and AA (who still don't get it with each other until the open skies agreement is in full effect).
US stays in Star.
UA (remember, CAL is the buyer) goes Skyteam.
AA stays in oneworld.
B6 creates new international alliance called “Par Avionâ€. A certain NY Senator starts a philibuster in the US Senate until they change the alliance website to www.voteforschumer.com.
AA finally agrees that my idea has merit and starts BUR-ORD (on an RJ, of course!).
Southwest sees the newly available gates at airports all around the country and says: "Great. Now we finally have someplace to put those 300 planes we're due to receive next week."
OK, there it is. Will this happen? Who knows? But I can confirm that this very scenario (many scenarios?) is being talked about extensively in the hallways of my home (after my wife goes to bed) and in the executive suites at the office (always with the doors closed, lest any SEC folks happen by).
Best Regards.
AAMD80Passenger
Before I start into the real meat of my post, I have to give some props to my favorite poster, NH/BB. I gotta tell you, I think your posts are hilarious. You're one funny dude. Your style is unique and you always make me laugh.
Now that the lovefest is over, let’s get on with it. This is my best "I'm just a passenger and I'm not in love with my airline of choice" shot at predicting (not prophesying – I’ve read what happens to those who claim that and turn out to be wrong) what will most certainly be a likely scenario for an industry-wide shakeout. (Warning: Bear's gonna love it and WT isn't.) In deference to our favorite Captain (the second funniest poster on this site), I call it: Project Turkey. Here goes:
AA buys DL (AA name stays)
US buys NW (US name stays)
CAL buys UA (UA name stays.)
B6 merges with F9 and buys Midwest (JetBlue name stays)
Here's where it gets fun:
AA trades the DL JFK hub, the non-GE 763s, and DL's BOS terminal to US for NW's Pacific routes, NW's 747s, NW's 787 delivery slots and US' BOS terminal. US keeps six slots and enough gates at NRT to run non-stops from their major hubs (PHL, JFK, PHX, DET, MSP, CLT).
At JAL’s request (or maybe something a bit stronger), AA realigns the NRT hub to service only deep SE Asia and southern India. All intra-Asian flying to China, Taiwan, and Korea is flown directly from US hubs.
US keeps the DL JFK European flying intact because the first three months of the expansion under the previous management was better than anyone expected and is clearly the path to world domination. (Putting his Masters Degree in Napoleonic History to good use, Mr. Parker suspends all flights to Moscow during the winter months.)
US closes (or at least heavily reduces) MEM, PIT (again!), and LAS as hubs.
AA closes (or at least heavily reduces) CVG and STL as hubs.
UA closes (or at least heavily reduces) CLE as a hub.
Since there is now only 1 US legacy airline not serving LHR (US) and one British airline not allowed to serve the US from LHR (BMI), the US DOT and the UK agree to thumb their noses at the EU and scrap B-II and phase in an open skies for LHR once T5 is completed. The EU sues the UK and the issue remains in European courts for 10 years, effectively keeping the lid on open skies for at least another decade.
AA purchases/leases 7 slots from BA at LHR for flights from ATL, DFW*, RDU* and SEA (more in a minute on this).
UA purchases/leases 10 slots from various alliance partners at LHR for flights from Denver*, Newark and Houston*.
US purchases/leases 12 slots from BMI for flights from JFK, PHL, DET, MSP, PHX, and CLT.*
(*only applicable upon successful completion of open skies)
UA trades CAL's 737NGs and 757s to AA for DLs 757s. (The combo of DLs and CAL's 737s allow AA to retire a boatload of MD80s and delays the neccessity of having to purchase a replacement for that type for at least 10 years; the extra 757s allow UA to fly from Newark to every airport in western Europe.)
Budweiser announces a 20% reduction in the price of a 6-pack of Bud products, due mainly to the dramatic drop in the cost of aluminum on the open market. Wall Street analysts agree that the rapid, near-simultaneous retirement of NWs DC9s, AA’s MD-80s, and all the 737-200, -300, and -400 series aircraft is the main cause.
US uses assets from hub restructuring to start focus-city/mini-hub at SAT.
(Here's my favorite part): AA trades the Western half of SLC (keeping the connections to major East Coast, Mid-West and all hub cities) to... Alaska. AK also gets the 737-700s and -900s (from CAL). AA gets AK's LAX hub (AK keeping flights to SEA, PDX, SLC and DCA if they can't move the rights). AK moves their LAX operation to Term 5. AA makes Term 3 into their AE operation. AA announces that LAX will be the long-anticipated Pacific/Asian and Central American Gateway/hub. (Don’t worry AA fans, it will be dismantled two years later.)
AK takes over DL’s gates at SFO and consolidates them with what they already have. AK uses Mexican Gateway strategy at SFO that they used at LAX. AK also provides low-fare option at SFO, thereby forcing another 2 year delay on Virgin America as it now must choose its hub from very competitive, attractive offers made by CVG, SJC, MEM, STL, PIT, RDU, SJC, BNA, and Reno (trend, anyone?).
AA uses DL's 764s to replace the Airbii. Or, since that might actually happen, they decide to use the 764s to set up a second US-Asia hub in HNL, flying to HKG (you knew they’d get there eventually!), ICN, NRT, TPE, etc... (Actually, come to think of it, that idea is my favorite part.)
B6 becomes the first successful hybrid airline (US abandons the plan with the purchase of NW) with hubs in JFK, DEN, MKE and MCI and focus cities in LGB and MCO. (You know, with the exception of the terminal situation at MCI, that’s not a bad hub structure. Has anyone mentioned this before?)
AK buys and changes their name to Western Airlines. Gerry G. joins Western's BOD.
Alan Mullaly asks Doug Steenland to come on board as the new VP of Labor Relations at Ford Motor. News of the offer is leaked to the Wall Street Journal. Ford drops 25% in 3 hours, forcing a halt in trading on the company’s stock. However, it rebounds to a 52-week high later in the day when reports surface that Steenland has turned down the job and will instead take the helm of Airbus’ A380 program.
AK (ne, WA) joins oneworld and gets ATI with BA and AA (who still don't get it with each other until the open skies agreement is in full effect).
US stays in Star.
UA (remember, CAL is the buyer) goes Skyteam.
AA stays in oneworld.
B6 creates new international alliance called “Par Avionâ€. A certain NY Senator starts a philibuster in the US Senate until they change the alliance website to www.voteforschumer.com.
AA finally agrees that my idea has merit and starts BUR-ORD (on an RJ, of course!).
Southwest sees the newly available gates at airports all around the country and says: "Great. Now we finally have someplace to put those 300 planes we're due to receive next week."
OK, there it is. Will this happen? Who knows? But I can confirm that this very scenario (many scenarios?) is being talked about extensively in the hallways of my home (after my wife goes to bed) and in the executive suites at the office (always with the doors closed, lest any SEC folks happen by).
Best Regards.
AAMD80Passenger
---- Night, night!
