The Mechanics are not waiting around.
http://wcco.com/traffic/local_story_225152625.html
Will the pilots join them? That depends on whether or not they remember history. Once a company goes on the path of union busting they wont stop. Surely the pilots, if they have any sense whatsoever, must realize that once NWA is done with the mechanics the other unions are fair game.
I suspect that if they bust the mechanics they will take the company into BK then they will go after the rest.
You know the saying, "as long as you have your pilots and mechanics you have your airline". Thats because other groups are more easily replaced.
As the article above says some have had enough. They may have to take a 50% pay cut while starting a new career but thats less than the cut we take when we go from one airline to the next. Within 5 years we are back up to where we were. You also have to remember that the article is from Minnesota, not New York. In places like New York the initial paycut is much less. Two 15 year employees at AA in JFK quit this spring and went to work for Con Ed (NYC Electric utility). They took around a 10% hourly pay cut but are earning more because there is plenty of OT. Their hourly pay will surpass their AA pay in two years.
So mechanics will fare OK, probably better than any other group of workers as far as matching their airline pay. Lets not forget that in order to bust the mechanics NWA had to pay scabs more than they want to pay their mechanics. When they go after the other groups that will not be the case, they will offere the scabs less than their current workers are making. Other groups probably will not do as well as the mechanics will on the outside, and the company knows it. When you compare the salary of a commuter mechanic to a legacy mechanic the difference is within a few dollars. Maybe ten thousand a year. 20 to 30% at the most. However when you compare the salaries of a commuter pilot to a legacy pilot the difference is tremendous. Some of the commuter pilots top out at around $50K while some legacy pilots top out at $200K. A $150,000 difference or around 300%.
The two hardest groups to replace are mechanics and pilots. While there are a lot of laid off workers from both groups mechanics usually dont have that much difficulty finding work that will match what they lost over a reletively short period of time. A topped out mechanic with 25 years can expect to find a job and earn a comparable wage within three to five years, a 25 year pilot would probably never match the wage he was earning. The ease through which mechanics can transfer their skills is why NWA has had so much trouble recruiting scabs and why they had to pay so much. NWA has reportedly been training scabs since June, so they have already paid each scab around $13,000 in wages plus meals and lodging. The IAM and PFAA are the most vulnerable because it does not take as much training to replace them. Maybe a week at most for the ramp guys , three weeks for the FAs. Scab pilots would probably attend the training for free to get simulator time and most probably still see their career as a pilots the most promising, even if it topped out at $100K instead of $200K. So the question for pilots is do they stand together with the mechanics or do they simply wait as the company picks them off one at a time? By busting the mechanics first the company will have already jumped their most expensive andone of their biggest hurdles, a few hops over the other work groups and NWA will have the momentum to jump over the pilots too. The mechanics and the flight arttendants may be enough to trip the company up. However if the other work groups stood as one big hurdle the company could never make it over. But will they realize this? Judging from the IAMs reaction, probably not, and those fools probably dont realize that no matter how much they give back that they are next.
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