Oil Drops Sharply As Gas Plummets

a320av8r

Veteran
Aug 20, 2002
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www.usaviation.com
April 07, 2005 12:38 PM EDT

Oil futures prices fell nearly $2 a barrel Thursday afternoon, following the lead of gasoline futures, and brokers said there appeared to be further downward momentum.

"It's collapsing," said Ed Silliere, a broker at Energy Merchant Intermarket Futures in New York. "The market was extremely overbought."

Light, sweet crude for May delivery dropped $1.97 to $53.88 a barrel in afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline futures dropped 7.8 cents to $1.58 per gallon, or roughly 15 cents below last Friday's settlement price.

Mario Chavez, a broker at ABN Amro in New York, said the steady decline in prices in recent days triggered a huge wave of technical selling. "It was crazy," he said.

The selloff came as the U.S. Energy Department on Thursday predicted that gasoline prices, now averaging $2.22 a gallon nationwide, would peak at about $2.35 a gallon this summer.

On Wednesday the U.S. Energy Department said the supply of unleaded gasoline stood at 212.3 million barrels, or 5.5 percent higher than last year. However, gasoline demand remained healthy, up 2 percent from a year ago.

Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures, said he expects high gasoline prices to persist as "people are accumulating inventories before the summer driving season."

The government report also showed that the nation's inventory of crude oil was 317.1 million barrels, or 8 percent higher than last year.

"U.S. oil demand is holding up well, and will help to support prices at lower levels," investment bank Barclays Capital said in a note. "There is ... nothing in the U.S. data to support another push up toward $60 yet."

Emori said the current oil market remains "highly exaggerated," and that if prices followed market fundamentals, they should hover around the low $40 range.

"Although demand still remains strong, supplies are normal, as seen from the U.S. reports," he said. "Even the current spare capacity is not that tight."
 
Winglet said:
Even at $45, the legacies are toast . . . especially U and UAL.
[post="261106"][/post]​

How wrong you are. Without disclosing exact numbers, let's just say UAL's business plan assumes an average price above that mark.

Can't speak for US though.
 
Based on what I've seen, US has a business plan that assumes fuel in the low to mid $40s per barrel. With a ten dollar drop in the price of fuel, most of the legacies will get a lot healthier in a hurry. Whether that happens remains to be seen.
 
savyinvestor said:
Did the Republicans cause this good news? They get blamed for the bad. Savy
[post="261121"][/post]​

Savvy,

I for one do not think it's a HUGE coincidence that W is an busted Oilman that is involved heavily with the Oil industry. Much like Enron running up the prices in Calif. before they were toasted, Remeber the phone calls they had on tape from the Enron guys laughing about the "old lady in the dark, taking a cold shower". If they can get a handle on the oil situation I am sure that you will find W's hand prints all over much of this. How deep was Kenneth Lay in with the Bush clan? There is a paragon of virtue if I ever saw one. I am sure he like Bernie Ebbers hadn't a clue of the dirty dealing that were taking place. SURE.
 
Well, that's good news, but it will only be great news if it gets back into the low 40's again...

Fingers crossed
 
767jetz:

767jetz said: "How wrong you are. Without disclosing exact numbers, let's just say UAL's business plan assumes an average price above that mark. Can't speak for US though."

USA320Pilot comments: US Airways' business plan does too.

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
Global Jet Fuel Prices
(midpoint) as of April 7
NY Jet Barge
166.77 cts per gallon

Chicago Jet
165.28 cts per gallon

West Coast (LA) Jet
186.63 cts per gallon

European: Rotterdam Barges Jet
179.83 cts per gallon

Asia/Pacific: Singapore Kero
175.17 cts per gallon

Source: Platts
 
USA320Pilot said:
767jetz:

767jetz said: "How wrong you are. Without disclosing exact numbers, let's just say UAL's business plan assumes an average price above that mark. Can't speak for US though."

USA320Pilot comments: US Airways' business plan does too.

[post="261141"][/post]​

USA, Thanks for confirming.

767 go put the good news on the UAL board...tks a U fan.....
 
Do you know why the republicans hated Bill Clinton so much? He opened the strategic reserve several times in order to keep oil speculators from running the price of oil up to abnormal levels. It's harder to rob the working folks when the goverment is on their side.
 
magsau said:
If they can get a handle on the oil situation I am sure that you will find W's hand prints all over much of this. How deep was Kenneth Lay in with the Bush clan? There is a paragon of virtue if I ever saw one. I am sure he like Bernie Ebbers hadn't a clue of the dirty dealing that were taking place. SURE!

It always amazes me how people associate white collar crime with Republicans. Can you elaborate more on your conspiracy theory and enlighten us all rather than spewing one sided, politically biased drivel?
 
You know, if I wanted to read juvenile political drivel about how evil Republicans and evil oil companies are to blame for everything, not just high oil and gas prices, I'd just email some of my inbred distant relatives who live in rural midwestern states. Their daily existence seems to revolve around such tripe.

But instead I come here to read discussions of aviation, not some unsophisticated crackpot political conspiracy theories.
 
George W Bush does not have any influence over the oil companies.In case you didn't notice the prices started going up before last year's election.

Old fashioned greed is what is driving the oil prices and the Arab sheiks and U.S. oil companies are just trying to find out where the price tolerance threshold is and then keep the prices at that level.

If I owned an Oil Company I would increase the price until people stopped buying the gasoline then lower the price until my market share returned and keep it at that level.It is just business and not politics.
 
If I owned an Oil Company I would increase the price until people stopped buying the gasoline then lower the price until my market share returned and keep it at that level.It is just business and not politics.
[post="261173"][/post]​
Based on road conditions around the clock(I am sure its the same all over the US), I see no evidence of people cutting back on driving whatsoever..its like 2.20-2.40+ a gal is a drop in the bucket to them. Therefore the price will not come down based on lesser consumption(this go around, unlike 25-30 years ago when people actually tried to conserve)..The consumer has no one to blame but themselves for gleefully outshelling their dough into the oil companies and the sheiks hands every time they fill up without blinking an eye. They are laughing at the gas guzzlers all the way to their gold encased Bank lock boxes. I for one can't blame 'em..
 

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