Oil Heading Lower...

[767jetz]

Oil isn't going to drop to much farther. The Rag H..ds will cut production to keep the price at the $100 / bbl level. IMO

Well... One more hurricane is history and oil continues it's retreat. Right now we're at the $96 point. OPEC's production cut has not stopped the slide. The geopolitical landscape of declining world economies, the strengthening dollar, and the inevitable policy changes to limit oil speculation are far stronger driving forces than world oil supply.

The only kink in all this is the refining capacity (as usual). So we still have to see how long it will take for cheaper oil to reach the fuel trucks in the form of Jet A. As we see at the gas stations every day, gasoline is on the rise even as oil retreats. However IMO the gas price spike is temporary, and it is far more important that the oil prices stabilize below $100.

 

[gaucho99]

I believe the temp cut-off is 120F, not 116. PHX has had only ONE day since the late 1800s that exceeded that figure, in June of 1990 (122). Since then, official high temps have not exceeded 119 degrees.

The airport closed down for departures the day it hit 122. Once it hit 120, there was no information on weight and balance for temps that high. As soon as the temp fell back below 120, they opened it again. There was one or two more days where the temp hit 120 since then but the charts were updated so they did not have to close down. Also, the official thermomotor was moved to a diffeent location so the chances of anther 120 day are pretty slim. I think the old location was affected by buildings and concrete that increased the temperture. The new location has more natural desert vegetation and will give a more accurate reading...a few degres cooler. We never see official temps over 115 or 116 now.

 

[jimntx]

The only kink in all this is the refining capacity (as usual). So we still have to see how long it will take for cheaper oil to reach the fuel trucks in the form of Jet A. As we see at the gas stations every day, gasoline is on the rise even as oil retreats. However IMO the gas price spike is temporary, and it is far more important that the oil prices stabilize below $100.

If you mean the shutdown of the refineries because of the hurricane, I wouldn't worry too much. Because the oil companies had sufficient warning to perform orderly shutdowns, it won't take that long to bring them back on line. If they had to shut down in a hurry, as they brought the plants back on line, they would have to stop frequently and test for any damage possibly caused by the rapid shutdown.

If you mean the total refining capacity, well you are going to have to overcome the NIMBY philosophy in this country. Everyone agrees we need more refineries, but not in my city, county, or state. And, as someone who has spent a lot of time in oil refineries--NIMBY!

 

[BugWash]

Well... One more hurricane is history and oil continues it's retreat. Right now we're at the $96 point. OPEC's production cut has not stopped the slide. The geopolitical landscape of declining world economies, the strengthening dollar, and the inevitable policy changes to limit oil speculation are far stronger driving forces than world oil supply.

The only kink in all this is the refining capacity (as usual). So we still have to see how long it will take for cheaper oil to reach the fuel trucks in the form of Jet A. As we see at the gas stations every day, gasoline is on the rise even as oil retreats. However IMO the gas price spike is temporary, and it is far more important that the oil prices stabilize below $100.

Hey 767, how were things in Denver? Just wondering what is going on out there.

 

[767jetz]

Hey 767, how were things in Denver? Just wondering what is going on out there.

Not much. Pretty much looked like a deserted town. Very little activity, which surprised me with all the bumps and retraining. It was the weekend though.

As for me, it was the normal routine. Drink from the fire hose, check some boxes to make the FAA happy, and off you go back to the general population. 😱

 

[novaqt]

Oil closed Friday at $77 per shr. I hope United is benefitting from this and is doing some hedging?