Petroleum Report For Week Ending 10/28/05

BoeingBoy

Veteran
Nov 9, 2003
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U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 13.9 million barrels per day during the week ending October 28, up 346,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average, as more Gulf Coast refiners were able to begin operating again. Refineries operated at 82.5 percent of their operable capacity last week (capacity temporarily lost is not subtracted from operable capacity). Gasoline and distillate fuel production both rose, reaching over 8.7 million barrels per day and 3.8 million barrels per day, respectively.

Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged over 1.2 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel imports averaged 323,000 barrels per day.

Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1.0 million barrels last week, putting them in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories inched lower by 0.2 million barrels last week, and remain just above the lower end of the average range for this time of year. A decline in high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate
fuel more than compensated for an increase in low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel.

Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.5 million barrels per day, or 1.8 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over 8.9 million barrels per day, or 1.7 percent below the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 1.5 percent below the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 4.2 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Spot prices for jet fuel.....10/28.....10/21....10/14.....10/07.......9/30......9/23......9/16.......9/09.......9/02.......8/26
New York Harbor.........$2.0050 $2.0275 $2.1150 $2.3050 $2.4200 $2.0700 $1.9450 $2.0100 $2.2750 $1.9100
Gulf Coast...................$1.9640 $1.9325 $2.3050 $2.8400 $2.6450 $2.1750 $1.9050 $1.9488 $2.2050 $1.8675
Los Angeles................$1.9150 $1.8850 $2.0350 $2.0850 $2.3050 $2.0000 $1.8850 $1.9500 $2.2538 $2.0000

Spot prices for crude......10/28...10/21...10/14...10/07....9/30.....9/23....9/16.....9/09.....9/02.....8/26
WTI Cushing.................$61.30 $61.05 $62.61 $61.81 $66.21 $64.67 $62.91 $64.21 $66.91 $66.71
Brent............................$59.47 $56.94 $58.45 $57.29 $61.70 $62.17 $60.48 $62.62 $65.95 $67.26

Current crude prices:

CNBC reports $59.95 @ 10:40am

Finally, average spot prices of jet fuel (per gallon) by month (by quarter once the quarter is over):

Delivery point.....1Q05.....2Q05......3Q05.....Oct05.....Nov05*
NY Harbor...... $1.4861 $1.5833 $1.9253 $2.1438 $1.9490
Gulf Coast..... $1.4400 $1.5649 $1.9263 $2.3981 $1.8240
Los Angeles.. $1.5228 $1.7008 $1.9585 $2.0166 $1.8300

*thru 11/01/05

Finally, the chart of daily WTI and jet fuel spot prices since the Friday before Katrina came ashore:

View attachment 3579

As you can see, the Los Angeles "crack spread" has dropped below pre-Katrina level, while Gulf Coast is still slightly higher and NY Harbor is still quite a bit higher. It should be noted, however, that NY Harbor is the import point for quite a bit of the extra jet fuel being imported, so that includes transportation cost.

Jim
 
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