Probability of BK within the Airlines

topDawg

Veteran
Nov 23, 2010
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Holy crap guys. This is alarming, is it not? 75 Billion debt? Is this true?? If I remember correctly the last time they filed for BK they were a mere 32-35 Billion in debt. And now AA has a number (yes, more than a few) of law suits against them for many different reasons and from different entities, including the DOT, DOJ, and the suit on the NEA with JB that the Gov is suing over.
Just came across this article and was flabbergasted by how much debt AA has this time around (if all is true). Does this not put them at a 66%-75% chance of going BK again?? United at 52%, but has way more avenues they can go prior to hitting the BK button where AA does not any longer as they ate up all their options early on. I leave you all with the article below. Also don't forget the super increased pay for Pilots to keep flying at AA as well as at all the regional airlines that gets passed onto AA cost as well.
Prepare yourselves folks. It may never come to it, BUT, YOU never know, so prepare for the worse. Just like last time, NOBODY thought they would have filed for BK when they had all those BILIIONS 5-6 in cash and reserves last time, never say never, get prepared folks.


American is in sorry shape. They said they would focus on paying down debt this time so we will see if that comes true or if they start throwing out buy backs again to match Delta/United.
Although you are too deathly afraid to respond to what I present to you I’m still 100% positive that you read everything. Otherwise you wouldn’t be so angry and trying to constantly insult.

Do you know anything about Debt? Do you know there’s a difference between having good debt and bad debt? Good debt is borrowing used to generate income. Meaning in our business borrowing money to buy Airplanes. Bad debt is debt on the books that has no value. Such as old unused leases and old airplanes.

How many people do you know who have a Mortgage and a Car Loan? Is a Mortgage a good thing? Probably so if your payment is less than what you would spend to rent and you’re building equity. A car loan is also a good thing since it gets you to the place where you can get a paycheck to pay for your debt.

Many many many people in America today have more debt than what they’re worth. And most of them are in no way under any threat of Bankruptcy.

No I’m not at all concerned.

View attachment 16945
the bolded is wrong and is a large part of what got the airlines in trouble post 1999. (obviously 9/11 putt he petal to the metal on it though)

Buying airplanes can be good. The issue is, American added a metric **** ton of debt buying airplanes they didn't need to buy. Arguing they would get huge costs savings from new airplanes wrapped up in debt.
two problems with them. During a lot of that time, they just weren't seeing the fuel savings they presumed they would see (because fuel dropped post Obama administration) and its also very arguable they saw the gains promised from the maintenance "holiday".

And when American was buying all these plane, United's and Delta's CEO were happy tp point out the flawed logic and ended up being correct. Chasing "lowest average fleet age! woo hoo look at us!" is great till you take on a bunch of bad debt doing so and then not even really doing so as United and Delta (in that order) were able to get their average age down as well.

Now had oil stayed on its rocket ship path it was on during most of the Obama's administration, what you said might have been correct. American's management lost badly on the gamble.

The other issue American had and still has. They just don't make the money Delta and United (lessor extent) make. So while Delta was paying off debt (down to ~$6B pre-COVID), United was paying off debt (down to around ~$10B pre-COVID), American didn't (~$24B pre-COVID). Delta and United suckered American's management, BOD and shareholders in buybacks that American couldn't afford to do and pay down debt aggressively at the same time.
And thus American is in a situation now that is VERY concerning. Because they will once again lack the revenue advantage comparable to Delta and United while looking at a recession right in the face. And SWAMT correctly pointed out, with a DOJ lawsuit already over the NEA stuff, a big key to American's plan in the Northeast to outsource most of its domestic flying to jetBlue, plus use B6's current network to try to compete with Delta/United.
Now throw in a Spirit merger and NEA is almost certainly dead (minus a white house change more willing to allow something like NEA)

and of course if NEA some how survives that is all assuming jetBlue does. They are an absolute mess and could figure out how to make money last quarter with everyone else. Not sure if it is looking better for Q3 or not.

As E said the 200 unencumbered planes sounds great but are they 777-200ERs? Or are the 787-9s? Being able to park planes (and not pay for them) when needed is huge. But that only works when you need to park 200 or less planes. When you need to rapidly park 201, now I need to worry about using the planes I have to rase cash. Well, You aren't getting a ton of case for a 25 year old 738.
Yeah, go on, you company cheerleader, you... ;)

15+ years away from AA has indeed given me a different view. AA's a financial time bomb waiting to go off.

They've got nothing of value to try and leverage aside maybe from that nifty new HDQ complex, and who wants bigger offices in a day of remote work?...

Nobody needs route authorities anymore like they did 20 years ago before Open Skies agreements, and they can't just sell off a regional to United or Delta.

Their only hope right now is to make sure there's enough cash coming in to service the existing debt service.

What will be left to do is try and get concessions from labor (And does anyone seriously think they'll cooperate?... ) and ask the banks to renegotiate the debt.

Problem is they just did all that in 2014. That's ages ago in normal life, but banks tend to remember longer than a Twitter timeline or Instagram story...
exactly this.
If things stay as they were this summer and American's management can stay disciplined they might dig out of it.

The issue is we are in the early stages of a recession(as much as people wanna change the definition so "See it isn't TRUE!). US airlines right now are living on leisure and VFR travel as they wait for the corporate market to rebound/it become clearer what the post COVID corporate market will look like/still waiting for Asia to open back up and see how the marketplace rebonds there.
But that means the big three are living off of one of the first things that gets cut in a recession.
negative GDP growth isn't the only thing showing such a thing. Oil prices are dropping for a reason and the US housing bubble is starting to show signs of busting. I also believe I saw something from some of the big stores in the county (Wal-Mart, Amazon etc) that said they are starting to see softness in not necessity spending.
all of that points to bad things for the airlines in this country but American and ironically jetBlue are the two in the worst shape.
 
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SWAMECH

Senior
Apr 26, 2005
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American is in sorry shape. They said they would focus on paying down debt this time so we will see if that comes true or if they start throwing out buy backs again to match Delta/United.

the bolded is wrong and is a large part of what got the airlines in trouble post 1999. (obviously 9/11 putt he petal to the metal on it though)

Buying airplanes can be good. The issue is, American added a metric **** ton of debt buying airplanes they didn't need to buy. Arguing they would get huge costs savings from new airplanes wrapped up in debt.
two problems with them. During a lot of that time, they just weren't seeing the fuel savings they presumed they would see (because fuel dropped post Obama administration) and its also very arguable they saw the gains promised from the maintenance "holiday".

And when American was buying all these plane, United's and Delta's CEO were happy tp point out the flawed logic and ended up being correct. Chasing "lowest average fleet age! woo hoo look at us!" is great till you take on a bunch of bad debt doing so and then not even really doing so as United and Delta (in that order) were able to get their average age down as well.

Now had oil stayed on its rocket ship path it was on during most of the Obama's administration, what you said might have been correct. American's management lost badly on the gamble.

The other issue American had and still has. They just don't make the money Delta and United (lessor extent) make. So while Delta was paying off debt (down to ~$6B pre-COVID), United was paying off debt (down to around ~$10B pre-COVID), American didn't (~$24B pre-COVID). Delta and United suckered American's management, BOD and shareholders in buybacks that American couldn't afford to do and pay down debt aggressively at the same time.
And thus American is in a situation now that is VERY concerning. Because they will once again lack the revenue advantage comparable to Delta and United while looking at a recession right in the face. And SWAMT correctly pointed out, with a DOJ lawsuit already over the NEA stuff, a big key to American's plan in the Northeast to outsource most of its domestic flying to jetBlue, plus use B6's current network to try to compete with Delta/United.
Now throw in a Spirit merger and NEA is almost certainly dead (minus a white house change more willing to allow something like NEA)

and of course if NEA some how survives that is all assuming jetBlue does. They are an absolute mess and could figure out how to make money last quarter with everyone else. Not sure if it is looking better for Q3 or not.

As E said the 200 unencumbered planes sounds great but are they 777-200ERs? Or are the 787-9s? Being able to park planes (and not pay for them) when needed is huge. But that only works when you need to park 200 or less planes. When you need to rapidly park 201, now I need to worry about using the planes I have to rase cash. Well, You aren't getting a ton of case for a 25 year old 738.

exactly this.
If things stay as they were this summer and American's management can stay disciplined they might dig out of it.

The issue is we are in the early stages of a recession(as much as people wanna change the definition so "See it isn't TRUE!). US airlines right now are living on leisure and VFR travel as they wait for the corporate market to rebound/it become clearer what the post COVID corporate market will look like/still waiting for Asia to open back up and see how the marketplace rebonds there.
But that means the big three are living off of one of the first things that gets cut in a recession.
negative GDP growth isn't the only thing showing such a thing. Oil prices are dropping for a reason and the US housing bubble is starting to show signs of busting. I also believe I saw something from some of the big stores in the county (Wal-Mart, Amazon etc) that said they are starting to see softness in not necessity spending.
all of that points to bad things for the airlines in this country but American and ironically jetBlue are the two in the worst shape.
No kidding, wow. You really brought it all into more perspective. I read Spirit's 2Q earnings and quite frankly they did better than a lot of the other airlines at the top. At first glance it would appear that Spirit's books look way better than AA or JB's going forward. Mayb it should have been Spirit purchasing JetBlue huh?
Also note that the cheerleading articles have slowed over at JB to try and make their NEA and Spirit purchase look so advantageous to the DOJ for approval, wonder why that is. It all of a sudden got very quiet out there...
 

WeAAsles

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Oct 20, 2007
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Gotta love the Airline Forums Aviation experts here. If the clouds are so dark one has to wonder about all of these Aircraft orders including AA, Delta and Spirit Airlines.

“On July 7, Airbus closed a deal with American Airlines for four A321neo aircraft”

 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
22,337
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American Airlines CFO on fixing balance sheet after pandemic



The experts here aren’t going to pay any attention. The sky’s are all dark and the flooding is going to wipe out the town. Even the Cows on the roofs aren’t going to be saved.
 

CorvetteMan

Advanced
Jul 7, 2022
119
11
No kidding, wow. You really brought it all into more perspective. I read Spirit's 2Q earnings and quite frankly they did better than a lot of the other airlines at the top. At first glance it would appear that Spirit's books look way better than AA or JB's going forward. Mayb it should have been Spirit purchasing JetBlue huh?
Also note that the cheerleading articles have slowed over at JB to try and make their NEA and Spirit purchase look so advantageous to the DOJ for approval, wonder why that is. It all of a sudden got very quiet out there...
Spirit lost money. AA made money.
 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
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LOL

Hello pot, meet kettle!

Not at all. I was just thinking about all that green the Airline Industry spent for share buybacks between 2014 and 2019. From 2014 through 2019, United spent a total of $8.57 billion for stock buybacks and paid no cash dividends. Southwest spent $8.53 for buybacks and $1.38 billion for dividends, for a total of $9.91 billion. American spent $11.895 billion for buybacks and $1.064 billion for dividends, for a total of $12.959 billion. Delta spent $10.08 billion for buybacks and $3.168 billion for dividends.

Despite the idea of a possible recession which isn’t being seen by some of the talking heads on CNBC particularly Kevin O Leary and Tom Lee and the Airlines can get back to that pre pandemic revenue generation alone, and which does look promising even with inflation none of them should have major difficulties paying down debt. Over time of course.

A glass can be half empty or half full depending on how you look at it. Oh and I think AA has completed all of their major CapEx projects now too.
 

topDawg

Veteran
Nov 23, 2010
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Gotta love the Airline Forums Aviation experts here. If the clouds are so dark one has to wonder about all of these Aircraft orders including AA, Delta and Spirit Airlines.

“On July 7, Airbus closed a deal with American Airlines for four A321neo aircraft”

Lol. You are so childish sometimes. So lets play a game, I have two bachelor degrees, one in management and one in finance. I also have a masters in business as well. Why don't you tell me what you have a college education in.

and FYI, airline in literal bankruptcy order airplanes all the time. Hell your own airline ordered 460 737s and A32X airplanes 5 months before going into Chapter 11. (787 might have been a part of that too or it was in the same time frame as a separate order)
A 777-300ER order was in that time frame as well.
and thats just American.

I know Delta ordered planes in bankruptcy (nothing on the scope of the above) and I believe United did too.


and that mainline. They were all ordering regional jets like they were going out of style once the judges/unions let them.

The experts here aren’t going to pay any attention. The sky’s are all dark and the flooding is going to wipe out the town. Even the Cows on the roofs aren’t going to be saved.
Again, quit being such a child.
We have had two negative quarters of GDP growth. That is a recession. Its not an option. Its not up for debate, as much as the current administration is begging people to change the definition of a recession. Its a economic fact. Like a "things I learned today in which school economics class" fact.

and if you want to make it personal. Yes, compared to you, education wise, I am much closer to an expert than you are.

now I was trying to have a discussion on the matter. If you want to quit throwing a tantrum and grow up, I'd love to do that without throwing personal insults. If you want to continue to insult my intelligence on a matter like this that I am incredibly more knowledgeable than you are though, I can do the same.
Not at all. I was just thinking about all that green the Airline Industry spent for share buybacks between 2014 and 2019. From 2014 through 2019, United spent a total of $8.57 billion for stock buybacks and paid no cash dividends. Southwest spent $8.53 for buybacks and $1.38 billion for dividends, for a total of $9.91 billion. American spent $11.895 billion for buybacks and $1.064 billion for dividends, for a total of $12.959 billion. Delta spent $10.08 billion for buybacks and $3.168 billion for dividends.
And during that time Delta and United had the revenue advantage to pay down debt. American didn't.

Despite the idea of a possible recession which isn’t being seen by some of the talking heads on CNBC particularly Kevin O Leary and Tom Lee
Oh. Well. Thank God. The world has been saved. Those two quarters of negative GDP growth don't actually mean anything. I am so thankful that you taught the class today that the world's economic authority are talking heads are on CNBC.

Stupid books. I mean really who needs those anyways? I mean absolutely no way a left leaning new source is talking in partisan politics. That has, quite literally, never happened before. I also hear you can trust the news coming from China, North Korea back in the day Soviet Russia and of course everyone knows Nazi Germany never had that happen.

the Airlines can get back to that pre pandemic revenue generation alone, and which does look promising even with inflation none of them should have major difficulties paying down debt. Over time of course.
If gold bricks fly out of my but I'm going to buy American Airlines and pay for all the debt with the rest of the gold.

A glass can be half empty or half full depending on how you look at it. Oh and I think AA has completed all of their major CapEx projects now too.
Two things.

2+2=4. not 3. not 5. not 4.0000000000000000001. It equals 4. Dealing in the world of numbers and facts has nothing to do with glass full or glass empty. It has everything to do with knowing what you are talking about or not knowing what you are talking about. Thats point blank period.

second. No airline, especially the size of the US3, is ever done with capital expenditures. Ever.
Its really scary and sad I know more about your airline than you do but American has nearly 200 airplanes on order. Those will have to be paid for. (or leases paid.)
and before one of you say it, having the financing lined up does not = paid for.

On top of that. American has ~100 A319s, ~50 A320s, something like 20-30 A321s, ~80 738s and then of course all of the 777-200ER fleet (~50) airplanes that are in the 20s (some later 20s) or pushing that will need to be replaced. Obviously some of the 200 airplanes on order will fill that need but growth needs to be accounted for. I'm also sure American still isn't back to pre-COVID levels fleet wise, which also needs to be taken into account.
and thats the short term outlook. American then has to start to worrying about the next batch of planes due up to be parked.

and also its regional airlines that will need replacement airplanes.

So no. They haven't "completed all of their major CapEx projects". I am super excited to see what TWU and/or company quotes you attempt to use to prove all of this wrong though.


I'd love for some of the other people that use to be here to come back to have a rational, none crap slinging, adult conversation about this kind of stuff. Its a shame the web site owners have let a few people run all of them off. And I thought WT was bad.
 
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WeAAsles

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Lol. You are so childish sometimes. So lets play a game, I have two bachelor degrees, one in management and one in finance. I also have a masters in business as well. Why don't you tell me what you have a college education in.

and FYI, airline in literal bankruptcy order airplanes all the time. Hell your own airline ordered 460 737s and A32X airplanes 5 months before going into Chapter 11. (787 might have been a part of that too or it was in the same time frame as a separate order)
A 777-300ER order was in that time frame as well.
and thats just American.

I know Delta ordered planes in bankruptcy (nothing on the scope of the above) and I believe United did too.


and that mainline. They were all ordering regional jets like they were going out of style once the judges/unions let them.


Again, quit being such a child.
We have had two negative quarters of GDP growth. That is a recession. Its not an option. Its not up for debate, as much as the current administration is begging people to change the definition of a recession. Its a economic fact. Like a "things I learned today in which school economics class" fact.

and if you want to make it personal. Yes, compared to you, education wise, I am much closer to an expert than you are.

now I was trying to have a discussion on the matter. If you want to quit throwing a tantrum and grow up, I'd love to do that without throwing personal insults. If you want to continue to insult my intelligence on a matter like this that I am incredibly more knowledgeable than you are though, I can do the same.

And during that time Delta and United had the revenue advantage to pay down debt. American didn't.


Oh. Well. Thank God. The world has been saved. Those two quarters of negative GDP growth don't actually mean anything. I am so thankful that you taught the class today that the world's economic authority are talking heads are on CNBC.

Stupid books. I mean really who needs those anyways? I mean absolutely no way a left leaning new source is talking in partisan politics. That has, quite literally, never happened before. I also hear you can trust the news coming from China, North Korea back in the day Soviet Russia and of course everyone knows Nazi Germany never had that happen.


If gold bricks fly out of my but I'm going to buy American Airlines and pay for all the debt with the rest of the gold.


Two things.

2+2=4. not 3. not 5. not 4.0000000000000000001. It equals 4. Dealing in the world of numbers and facts has nothing to do with glass full or glass empty. It has everything to do with knowing what you are talking about or not knowing what you are talking about. Thats point blank period.

second. No airline, especially the size of the US3, is ever done with capital expenditures. Ever.
Its really scary and sad I know more about your airline than you do but American has nearly 200 airplanes on order. Those will have to be paid for. (or leases paid.)
and before one of you say it, having the financing lined up does not = paid for.

On top of that. American has ~100 A319s, ~50 A320s, something like 20-30 A321s, ~80 738s and then of course all of the 777-200ER fleet (~50) airplanes that are in the 20s (some later 20s) or pushing that will need to be replaced. Obviously some of the 200 airplanes on order will fill that need but growth needs to be accounted for. I'm also sure American still isn't back to pre-COVID levels fleet wise, which also needs to be taken into account.
and thats the short term outlook. American then has to start to worrying about the next batch of planes due up to be parked.

and also its regional airlines that will need replacement airplanes.

So no. They haven't "completed all of their major CapEx projects". I am super excited to see what TWU and/or company quotes you attempt to use to prove all of this wrong though.


I'd love for some of the other people that use to be here to come back to have a rational, none crap slinging, adult conversation about this kind of stuff. Its a shame the web site owners have let a few people run all of them off. And I thought WT was bad.

I have a Masters in Psychology actually. I always find it fascinating how easily I can get people riled up and obsessed with me online. I’m actually writing a book about it. BTW you do seem to think very highly of yourself.

WT is on the Cranky Flier Blog site if you didn’t know. It’s very easy to figure out who he is by his obsessive comments which I’m sure you would be familiar with. Otherwise I’m not really interested in engaging with your glass half empty, Worlds coming to an end viewpoints.

I actually used to learn a lot from you but it’s hard to pay attention to you now since you’re always so angry and insulting. And if anyone actually still does read here at least you can say you showed me though. Feather in your cap.

And BTW if AA ever does file BK again I’ll deal with it just like I dealt with all the other hardships. That’s life. But I “think” they’ll be fine.
 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
22,337
5,311
Lol. You are so childish sometimes. So lets play a game, I have two bachelor degrees, one in management and one in finance. I also have a masters in business as well. Why don't you tell me what you have a college education in.

and FYI, airline in literal bankruptcy order airplanes all the time. Hell your own airline ordered 460 737s and A32X airplanes 5 months before going into Chapter 11. (787 might have been a part of that too or it was in the same time frame as a separate order)
A 777-300ER order was in that time frame as well.
and thats just American.

I know Delta ordered planes in bankruptcy (nothing on the scope of the above) and I believe United did too.


and that mainline. They were all ordering regional jets like they were going out of style once the judges/unions let them.


Again, quit being such a child.
We have had two negative quarters of GDP growth. That is a recession. Its not an option. Its not up for debate, as much as the current administration is begging people to change the definition of a recession. Its a economic fact. Like a "things I learned today in which school economics class" fact.

and if you want to make it personal. Yes, compared to you, education wise, I am much closer to an expert than you are.

now I was trying to have a discussion on the matter. If you want to quit throwing a tantrum and grow up, I'd love to do that without throwing personal insults. If you want to continue to insult my intelligence on a matter like this that I am incredibly more knowledgeable than you are though, I can do the same.

And during that time Delta and United had the revenue advantage to pay down debt. American didn't.


Oh. Well. Thank God. The world has been saved. Those two quarters of negative GDP growth don't actually mean anything. I am so thankful that you taught the class today that the world's economic authority are talking heads are on CNBC.

Stupid books. I mean really who needs those anyways? I mean absolutely no way a left leaning new source is talking in partisan politics. That has, quite literally, never happened before. I also hear you can trust the news coming from China, North Korea back in the day Soviet Russia and of course everyone knows Nazi Germany never had that happen.


If gold bricks fly out of my but I'm going to buy American Airlines and pay for all the debt with the rest of the gold.


Two things.

2+2=4. not 3. not 5. not 4.0000000000000000001. It equals 4. Dealing in the world of numbers and facts has nothing to do with glass full or glass empty. It has everything to do with knowing what you are talking about or not knowing what you are talking about. Thats point blank period.

second. No airline, especially the size of the US3, is ever done with capital expenditures. Ever.
Its really scary and sad I know more about your airline than you do but American has nearly 200 airplanes on order. Those will have to be paid for. (or leases paid.)
and before one of you say it, having the financing lined up does not = paid for.

On top of that. American has ~100 A319s, ~50 A320s, something like 20-30 A321s, ~80 738s and then of course all of the 777-200ER fleet (~50) airplanes that are in the 20s (some later 20s) or pushing that will need to be replaced. Obviously some of the 200 airplanes on order will fill that need but growth needs to be accounted for. I'm also sure American still isn't back to pre-COVID levels fleet wise, which also needs to be taken into account.
and thats the short term outlook. American then has to start to worrying about the next batch of planes due up to be parked.

and also its regional airlines that will need replacement airplanes.

So no. They haven't "completed all of their major CapEx projects". I am super excited to see what TWU and/or company quotes you attempt to use to prove all of this wrong though.


I'd love for some of the other people that use to be here to come back to have a rational, none crap slinging, adult conversation about this kind of stuff. Its a shame the web site owners have let a few people run all of them off. And I thought WT was bad.

swamp, oh I mean swamech will be on momentarily to parrot, oh I mean praise you. I mean I know I don’t have many marbles left rolling around my head but that guy must have a bigger hole in his head because I think they all fell out. Along with the loose screws as well. (Report, Report, Report)
 

topDawg

Veteran
Nov 23, 2010
2,957
2,353
I have a Masters in Psychology actually. I always find it fascinating how easily I can get people riled up and obsessed with me online. I’m actually writing a book about it. BTW you do seem to think very highly of yourself.

WT is on the Cranky Flier Blog site if you didn’t know. It’s very easy to figure out who he is by his obsessive comments which I’m sure you would be familiar with. Otherwise I’m not really interested in engaging with your glass half empty, Worlds coming to an end viewpoints.

I actually used to learn a lot from you but it’s hard to pay attention to you now since you’re always so angry and insulting. And if anyone actually still does read here at least you can say you showed me though. Feather in your cap.

And BTW if AA ever does file BK again I’ll deal with it just like I dealt with all the other hardships. That’s life. But I “think” they’ll be fine.
As per usual, "Im taking my ball and going home because I don't like it when people say truthful things about the airline and union I love with all my heart"

and yes, when it comes to these things, I am quite confident in myself and because of my knowledge in such things, even with the looming recession my world isn't remotely close to coming to an end.

And then you finish it off by hurling more insults at people. You are quite literally the World Traveler of American Airlines, but you know a lot less. Very interesting.
 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
22,337
5,311
As per usual, "Im taking my ball and going home because I don't like it when people say truthful things about the airline and union I love with all my heart"

and yes, when it comes to these things, I am quite confident in myself and because of my knowledge in such things, even with the looming recession my world isn't remotely close to coming to an end.

And then you finish it off by hurling more insults at people. You are quite literally the World Traveler of American Airlines, but you know a lot less. Very interesting.

You’re the one chasing me around these boards. It’s not the other way around. And you have all those degrees but you’re still doing a blue collar job. Highly skilled I’m sure but you don’t have the capital that Mr Wonderful or Lee has. You don’t. That’s a fact.

You’re also the one who said you didn’t want to go through another Bankruptcy. You have ZERO control over that. Completely and totally beyond your control or that education. I’m cool with it if they do. I’m absolutely not shivering in fear.

And yes I love my Union. So what is that to you? I know many of those guys and I like and respect them. I also think they like and respect me. I could care less if you don’t like or want a Union. I’m not coming to the Delta threads or Facebook pages much anymore. Unfortunately that’s nothing but an unending Hamster Wheel. I got too dizzy for the ride.


BTW you wished for the old guys to come back. They won’t be coming back because it’s likely quite a few of them have died. Many were quite a bit older than me the first time I came here so it just stands to reason many have passed on.

And BTW I’m also not obsessed with Politics but you’ve made some sort of assumptions there too. FYI not all Union supporters are Liberals or automatically vote for someone with a D or an R on their hat. You can go up to the Water Cooler if you want to bat all that crap around though. Not my interest.
 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
22,337
5,311
Although the "two-quarter" definition is handy for analysts, journalists and the general public, it is not how economists think about business cycles.

That's partly because GDP is a broad measure that can be influenced by factors like government spending or international trade. And the first read on it from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is often revised quite substantially, and should - as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday - be taken with a grain of salt.


ARE RECESSIONS ALWAYS TWO STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF FALLING GDP?​

Usually, but not always.

For example, GDP in 2001, after revisions, fell in the first three months of the year, rebounded in the next three months and declined again in the fall.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics
Even though there were not two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, the situation was defined as a recession, because employment and industrial production were falling.


 

eolesen

Veteran
Jul 23, 2003
15,811
9,373
I suspect it's just a matter of time before job losses start in earnest. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation, which inevitably leads to less discretionary spending. That has a ripple effect on airlines, hotels, and cruise lines. There's a lot of pent up demand from people who couldn't vacation like they did in 2019, but I don't see that continuing into 2023.

I just saw where one of the largest aluminum plants in the country (20% of present capacity) is shutting down for at least a year because of energy prices. They won't be the only manufacturer to pull back -- certainly companies that needed that aluminum will see cutbacks.

I've seen two local restaurants call it quits over their food price increases and staffing headaches. I've seen a couple franchises close down as well, presumably for similar reasons.
 

WeAAsles

Veteran
Oct 20, 2007
22,337
5,311
I suspect it's just a matter of time before job losses start in earnest. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation, which inevitably leads to less discretionary spending. That has a ripple effect on airlines, hotels, and cruise lines. There's a lot of pent up demand from people who couldn't vacation like they did in 2019, but I don't see that continuing into 2023.

I just saw where one of the largest aluminum plants in the country (20% of present capacity) is shutting down for at least a year because of energy prices. They won't be the only manufacturer to pull back -- certainly companies that needed that aluminum will see cutbacks.

I've seen two local restaurants call it quits over their food price increases and staffing headaches. I've seen a couple franchises close down as well, presumably for similar reasons.

The jobs market is way too hot as it is. The turnover we have at AA is thru the roof when it comes to jobs like FA’s, CSA’s and Ramp. They’ve raised the starting pay in many cities but absolutely not enough to offset the flow. Wages haven’t kept up but they have increased. But that also obviously causes a lot of the inflation. The Fed raising rates will eventually solve some of the problems but the question is will it be a hard or soft landing?

I agree with you that demand for air travel will soften some next year. It has to. People obviously are still flush with cash that they want to blow and thankfully for my industry they want to blow it on flying right now.

Energy prices have been falling under the pressure of inflation. WTI has even gotten close to $85BP before now being back up to $90. Some Gas stations here in S Florida have Gas down to $3.35. The economy should be able to handle prices in that range. Housing is also starting to move down but food prices are still through the roof. (Edit: Two Gas Stations at $3.19 per GasBuddy)

I just had a meal in a restaurant last night and it used to cost $13.95 before the pandemic. Now it cost $17.95 for the same meal. Luckily I can afford the price rises but the question is how long do I want to?
 
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