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Profit Estimates

Itestwell,

The subject of changes at other airlines is discussed ad nauseum on other sites, including our own boards. Look at FFOCUS' boards or at FlyerTalk and you will see similar discussions regarding just about any other airline. This board is US-centric for the most part, and the core readers and posters here are employees not customers. That is why you may see a perception of us only discussing US here.

Fair enough. I looked at FT posts back to January '10, and I do not see any public comments from you with respect to negative changes at other airlines. I do, however, see many on the US page, both here and at FT.

[quote/]Management at other airlines has been very receptive to our point of view, and I can say in fact that some pending changes were reconsidered after they became aware of our differing point of view.[/quote]

This is good! Why not post them on here, in their respective forums, making this board less "US centric"?

[quote/]We all acknowledge that things will not be as they were, and that many of the changes we will have to live with...but in many cases customer groups or advocates (not always me by the way) are consulted in advance and our feelings are valued and considered...and sometimes we win and sometimes we lose, but at least they care what we have to say. US management has the attitude that they know everything and that they don't need to listen to customers or employees. I have spent my own money flying to Tempe on more than one occasion to come out with empty promises and lies.[/quote]

So US never listened, or US could not make the promises that you wanted? And, do you feel that this has to do with other airlines having much higher revenue generating capabilities as compared to US, or do you think that the "weak hubs" argument is a smoke screen for a cheap airline?

[quote/]With regard to US employees empowerment, I can say that they cannot issue certain waivers, nor can managers, agents sometimes get in trouble for issuing meal or hotel vouchers when they are entirely appropriate, and the version of SHARES used by US is of the Walmart variety and stripped to the core. I watched yesterday as agents tried to work and the system would not let them do things that were perfectly in line with policy and perfectly appropriate-some rebookings were rejected for example, when they were certainly appropriate. A certain pet peeve is that no agent or manager can offer a distressed traveler (even a Chairmans Preferred member) a Choice seat without charging for it....but under certain circumstances they CAN upgrade that person to First...things like this make NO sense.[/quote]

Sounds pretty archaic and incredibly customer unfriendly on the US side. However, you never answered my last question. How is it that this type of poor service not relayed in the latest DOT metrics? Why is US still not consistently on the bottom like it was for the past few years, post merger?

[quote/] I don't see the need to continue bashing me for that--so let's let that one go.[/quote]

Where have I "bashed" you? I am respectfully disagreeing with you on certain matters, and agreeing with you on others. No name calling. Just debate and disagreements.

[quote/]At the end of the day, if you know my history, you know that I had been one of the most fierce advocates for US and its employees since 1999. It is SOLELY the senior management's attitude and disdain for both customers and employees alike which made me leave and take a few hundred loyal flyers with me...at the end of the day I hope US can re emerge stronger than ever, but time will tell.[/quote]

We share that same hope. We have a lot of great employees who are invested here, and who do great work.

[quote/]I will say they appear to be on the right path for the most part.[/quote]

[quote/]The fact that the amount of the profit is roughly equal to the amount collected in baggage and ancillary fees, however, indicates a fundamental flaw in the business model, which was actually admitted by Doug himself when we met with him earlier. [/quote]

The above two posts (the second quote from this thread, reply #10), are sending me mixed messages. Do we worry, or not?
 
Itest,

I think you always worry...anything can happen in the airline business and it usually does. Point one-things appear headed in the right direction...yes they do. We see what appears to be a sustainable profit, at least for now. We saw a commitment to invest in the product, which is always good.

I also admitted that other airlines are in a similar position in which the ancillary fees collect equal or exceed the amount of profit...which DOES indicate a fundamental problem with the current pricing structure...no need to rehash that.

With regard to FT and other sites, I have been plenty vocal there and on FFOCUS, in particular changes to UA/CO's programs and pricing policies. Very few customers of those airlines post here, so I don't feel the need to rehash. I discuss US issues here because most of this board is in fact US employees, and there are some frequent customers who still post here.

Some of my discussions with the management team at the other carrier are in fact confidential, however. Their willingness to listen has more to do with their realizing that those who fly almost every week spend considerably more than those who fly once or twice a year, and that a productive dialog and honest discussion of what can and cannot be changed is actually a good business practice. They also use revenue as a metric when measuring customer loyalty by the way. In short, they respect their customers -- and their employees I might add.

My dissatisfaction with my meetings with US had little to do with not hearing what we wanted to hear, it had more to do with a condescending attitude, an obvious perception that they really didn't know what was going on (if it wasn't on a spreadsheet they couldn't get it), and the fact that on at least three issues, they outright lied to me. That was the primary reason for me moving on - lack of trust, and a belief that they really don't care about their customers OR their employees--which manifests itself regularly. It is obvious talking to front line folks that morale is lower at US than almost any other carrier, with the possible exception of AA at the moment.

With regard to DOT, I said that things have gotten significantly better, and I cannot answer your question regarding the stats. Most of the folks I speak to on and off line, however, are very frustrated with their limited ability to help in some case.

At this point, I just want to say that I had a very positive experience this week, despite the weather foulups, and I would like to commend EVERYONE in CLT for doing an outstanding job the past two days....
 
How is it that this type of poor service not relayed in the latest DOT metrics? Why is US still not consistently on the bottom like it was for the past few years, post merger?
Because the front line workers work hard at correcting and defusing the problems all the wile trying to stay under the radar of the service fee police
 
So, Arts basic problem with US Airways is management hurt his feelings! Art has it occurred to you that they were not being condescending but brutally honest about their business and that the other Airlines are blowing smoke to make you feel good? This management team has been nails with regards to the industries financial issues and US Airways place in that. In fact they are so well regarded if there ever was a merger with AA for example the investors would insist that this team would be the surviving management. While your complaints are individually valid we know the exact same or similar ones can be made about any airline, your beef seems personal.
 
What are you smoking at the Sandcastle?

Doug and his team are the poster children on How not to Merge Airlines.

No Merger has ever been like this one, five years and still not completed.

Look at DL/NW and CO/UA on how to get things done.
 
So, Arts basic problem with US Airways is management hurt his feelings! Art has it occurred to you that they were not being condescending but brutally honest about their business and that the other Airlines are blowing smoke to make you feel good? This management team has been nails with regards to the industries financial issues and US Airways place in that. In fact they are so well regarded if there ever was a merger with AA for example the investors would insist that this team would be the surviving management. While your complaints are individually valid we know the exact same or similar ones can be made about any airline, your beef seems personal.
"The Investors would INSIST............" :lol: :lol: 🙄 :lol: YOU certainly Do Need Help. We are at THE POINT where You have Succumbed to Toxic Poisoning from drinking TOO MUCH Corporate Koolaid. You appear to need a spot in Rehab MUCH sooner than Charlie Sheen. Play nice with Lindsay. I'll give You INSIST.......... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
What are you smoking at the Sandcastle?

Doug and his team are the poster children on How not to Merge Airlines.

No Merger has ever been like this one, five years and still not completed.

Look at DL/NW and CO/UA on how to get things done.


100% correct. I think I need whatever he's smoking 🙄
 
This management team has been nails with regards to the industries financial issues and US Airways place in that. In fact they are so well regarded if there ever was a merger with AA for example the investors would insist that this team would be the surviving management.

😀 😀

This is nonsense on so many levels. US is currently subject to credit card holdback by its card processors. AA is not. US' failure to maintain its ratios and negotiate effectively with the card processors puts its future at risk.

US is currently not hedged and fuel is heading higher. As AA has done for many years, it has hedged a large portion of its 2011 jet fuel consumption.

US "invested" hundreds of millions into auction rate securities that, for several years, have appeared to be worthless but have since recovered some of the lost value. AFAIK, AA avoided those worthless securities.

US did slash its employees' pay much more severely than at AA. If paid at AA's payrates, I doubt the US management team would look like such geniuses.

US management is so highly regarded by its alliance "partners" that they won't even let US play in the transatlantic antitrust immunity reindeer games, leaving US as the only legacy airline forced to compete with its alliance "partners" across the Atlantic.

There are plenty of other examples of the US management team's lack of financial and operational expertise. Read the financial statements.

When US and HP were joined, the investors chose the lesser of two evils. Doubt anyone would make the mistake of choosing Drunken Parker & Co if AMR and US were married.
 
When US and HP were joined, the investors chose the lesser of two evils. Doubt anyone would make the mistake of choosing Drunken Parker & Co if AMR and US were married.

The investors really had no choice. Lakefield made it abundantly clear at every opportunity that presented itself that he did NOT want to run an airline....any airline. And it was Lakefield would cobbled together the investors, so it was probably quite clear up front that Parker would have to run the show. In fact, Lakefield probably set up the merger just to get himself out of US Airways front office.

But you are correct in that, if US and AA were merged, Parker and team would be sent packing. Of course with his pockets full of filthy lucre ripped off the backs of his employees, but sent packing nevertheless.
 
If Parker and Company are so great, why did Delta spurn him?

And US isnt under a credit card hold back anymore.
 
If Parker and Company are so great, why did Delta spurn him?

Good point.

And US isnt under a credit card hold back anymore.

Wrong. The first question in the conference call was about the credit card holdback. Since you didn't listen to it or don't remember it, here's a copy of the transcript:

Hunter Keay – Stifel Nicolaus

Can you give us an update on – sorry, I missed some of the prepared remarks, can you give us an update as further restricted cash situation and the credit card holdback, if you still have one, sort of what triggers it, and already in that causes you think that the trigger to fuel runs up a bit just because of your hedge situation?

Derek Kerr

Yeah. Hi, it’s Derek. Our restricted cash situation we have $364 million of restricted cash. That numbers down to 120 million year-over-year, primarily due to reduction in the credit card holdback. We currently have about a $100 million in credit card holdback that has driven – our contract has three different tiers, a holdback of 0%, 15%, and 25%. And we are at that second tier right now. I mean it’s all driven by fixed charge ratios and other numbers.

So, I think from our perspective, the max holdback can be 25% at this point in time and we’re in good shape, we’ve had reduced throughout the year, and we believe we’re planning all year, at the tier two level which is 15% holdback. But if things get better that could be reduced to zero at certain ratios.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/248868-us-airways-group-ceo-discusses-q4-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=qanda

So Kerr is planning on a 15% holdback for all of 2011. When fuel gets close to $3/gal, and the numbers deteriorate further, that may rise to 25%. That's just what US needs; unhedged fuel and the possibility of further credit card holdbacks.
 
This is good news- that the airline is profitable...congratulations to you all, and I hope you do get nice profit sharing checks.

The fact that the amount of the profit is roughly equal to the amount collected in baggage and ancillary fees, however, indicates a fundamental flaw in the business model, which was actually admitted by Doug himself when we met with him earlier. There needs to be a wholesale realignment of fares, with the number of loser fares reduced substantially. Pricing needs to be transparent, and there are ways to do it without making people feel like they are being nickel and dimed. A tiered fare structure ala AC or Airtrash comes to mind. Pick one price you don't get a seat. Pick the next highest you pick your seat and get to check a bag. Pick the next one and you get a premium seat....etc....this is a much more transparent, and I would think easier to manage than the current system, and would go far to reduce customer outrage at having their pockets picked every time they fly.

Currently sitting in CLT waiting for a flight- let's hope I make it home today 🙂

My BEST to you all...
First let me say that I do not presume to be as knowledgeable regarding finances and pricing structures at all airlines as the rest of you. Somehow, however, I think that a basic principle has been deliberately overlooked. We are a business, not a non-profit. As such our goal is to make money. In order to do that, you must charge a price that covers the costs of doing business. While I agree that our most loyal customers are an important part of our base line and that they should receive a few perks for their loyalty, I do not agree that we should give away the store.

Let's face it, the general public is unwilling to pay the price per seat that it cost to transport them from point A to point B. The airlines have to look at other ways to cover the remaining costs, hence the "nickel and diming" fees. The flying public has left us no other alternative and the blame lies there. It amazes me that the average Joe Public doesn't balk at a $200 cable fee each month so they can watch all of the trash TV they want and yet they think it unreasonable to actually pay what it cost to travel. My personal opinion is that these "Frequent Customer" programs have gone to excess and have been instrumental in causing this mentality.

Now for a few questions:
Does your company absorb the costs of your travel to do business or is it figured into the price of the goods or services you provide?

Does your company reimburse you for your travel expenses or do you "contribute" these out of the beneficence of your heart? (I'll include here that you do not write them off on your taxes for my point.)

Is a company actually better because it has a management team that is charming and knows how to soothe the savage beasts without really changing the way they do business?

Basically, you asked for it, you got it. The employees here have done a remarkable job, as you said, of doing a lot with very little. Our hands are tied daily. Could our management do a better job? Of course, along with every other management team out there. Your quote is correct, "It's the fares." We do need to charge more, then maybe we'd have those extra premium seats left to give to our most loyal customers, to take care of distressed passengers, etc.

Right now though, I am happy to "nickel and dime" everyone who doesn't want to pay higher fares as long as they don't dig into my pocket again to cover the costs of everyone else doing business or pleasure.
 
And US isnt under a credit card hold back anymore.

Not according to Derek Kerr. From the 2010 Q4 Earnings Conference Call, January 26th.. (bolding mine):

"Derek Kerr

Yeah. Hi, it’s Derek. Our restricted cash situation we have $364 million of restricted cash. That numbers down to 120 million year-over-year, primarily due to reduction in the credit card holdback. We currently have about a $100 million in credit card holdback that has driven – our contract has three different tiers, a holdback of 0%, 15%, and 25%. And we are at that second tier right now. I mean it’s all driven by fixed charge ratios and other numbers.

So, I think from our perspective, the max holdback can be 25% at this point in time and we’re in good shape, we’ve had reduced throughout the year, and we believe we’re planning all year, at the tier two level which is 15% holdback. But if things get better that could be reduced to zero at certain ratios."
 

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