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Reasoning behind the opinions of the Economist

Ukridge

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Many of you who read The Economist are well familiar with the coverage this august publication has lent to the airline industry over the past few years. In mid November, the Economist ran an article that predicted vigorous growth in the world’s air markets. They freely admitted that this was not revelatory, but something that has been long predicted in contemplative and reasoned comment on the topic.
What piqued my interest was the continued opinion by the E’s staff of the importance of the United States dropping its limits on foreign ownership. There are two rather difficult questions that I was troubled by in this reading upon which perhaps someone could render clarification.
First, I thought it was nowadays jejune to use the word “foreign†when referring to those like me from distant shores. The U.S. government still refers to these as “foreign†ownership limits but did not CNN discontinue the use of the word in preference of “international?†So when I arrive in the FCs am I a “foreigner†and foul of manner and unclean of body? Or am I rather an Internationalist? How does one alight on “international shores†as opposed to the more lyrical “foreign shores? Does one master an “international tongue†or a “foreign tongue?†Are there “foreigners†in the land or “internationalists?†Is something “foreign to you,†“strange to you,†or “international to you? The problems are legion are they not? Are these laws not better referred to as “international ownership limits?†Ah, the Yanks are getting hoisted on their own petard with the language.
OK, joking aside, the real question is why there is such a drumbeat within the Economist’s editorial staff and other publications for the adjustment of ownership rules within the U.S. I can fully understand the argument for the free movement of capital across borders to enhance investment and growth. Where I stumble is that it seems that raising capital has never seemed to have been a problem in the U.S. air industry before. In other words the airlines have not come-a-cropper heretofore by a lack of investment monies at hand. Why then the constant push for “foreign†ownership? Is it purely a managerial skill issue? Can “foreign†managers better run what seems to be an extraordinarily vicious industry any better than the corps of current executives? Specifically just what would “foreign†ownership bring to the table? This has become a mantra but without detailed reasoning to back it up. Perhaps it would be good for the U.S., but if so, how? Why?
There is something odd about the amount of newsprint devoted to the need to change this law. Again, if finding investment capital is not (or has not been) an issue, why the need for any change.
The mid-November article was quite good and foresaw the emergence of Emirates as a powerful player in the field. The content was marred somewhat by the failure to explain the question I have laid out.
Any ideas?
Cheers
 
I agree with you.

Conventional wisdom is that Branson or any number of other successful businesspeople could magically bring profits to the US domestic system. All they need are relaxations on the US limits of foreign ownership.

My response to that? What unbridled arrogance.

Southwest, although still profitable, would be much less so were it not for their well-timed fuel hedging decisions (which no other USA-based airline did to the same extent).

Even wunderkid Neeleman, and his "do no wrong" JetBlue have faltered. In the third quarter, B6 lost money pre-tax, and only showed a positive net income due to the tax effects of the pre-tax loss. Analysts predict another loss in the fourth quarter ending 12/31/05.

If even ultra-low-cost JetBlue is losing money, what drugs cause people on the Continent to believe that European money and management would fare any better? No domestic air market on the globe resembles that of the USA. Effectively, each of our 50 states enjoys an "open skies" arrangement with the other 49. Instead of just BA and VS flying around the globe from the UK, we have six large airlines flying to the UK. Instead of just JAL and ANA flying from Japan, we have six airlines flying from the USA to Japan.

What foreign ownership will not alter in the USA is the domestic overcapacity that we currently see. Southwest and Jetblue have been growing like gangbusters (much faster than the economy has grown in the past few years) yet the old-style legacies have not removed a like amount of capacity from their networks. In cases like that, something has to give, and that something has been unit revenue (and yield).
 
Yes it is rather perplexing is it not FWAAA? The Economist is one to always lay out its reasons for taking a stance but I have found in this case for the number of times they bring the topic to the fore, that it remains strangely mute on the basis for taking such a position.
Oddly, many think of Europe as still in a post-state supported static model with only the vulgar RyanAir and Easy Jet providing the 'LCC' options. Actually Eastern Europe is afill with small airlines popping up and Western Europe is seeing quite a bit of this spillover. Is it enough at the moment to provide a mortal challange to the AF/LH/KLMs of the Continent? Probably not a mortal challenge, but one of which a European exec must certainly be cognizant.
This though lends even more credence to what you said. If markets (whether in the U.S. or in Europe) are flooded with capacity for a certain level of air service how would ownership from afield benefit? China and India both are making prodigious investment into Iranian gas production. This is a case though, in which the native infrastructure and managment experience would need outside expertise and money. This is not the scenario within the U.S. air industry (or even the Europe if for example, one were advocating A U.S. carrier purchasing the majority share of LH) and thus my bewilderment at the constant drumbeat of the mantra of 'foreign ownership.' These days (as opposed to past decades of governmental subsidy in Europe), the market will determine the winners. Opening the market to any and all will IMHO only make the culling process that much more vicious without any real benefit for the consumer.
Cheers
 
I think the issue isn't raising capital or the theoretical advantages of an entity in Country A owning and controlling an airline as an isolated, stand-alone business in Country B (the US).

I think rather that the issue is changes in the US ownership rules will permit more rapid consolidation on a global scale which could make the industry more efficient. For example, if (for example) Lufthansa would like to purchase UA to create a truly seamless global operation, right now under the current rules I don't think they would be able to.
 
I can see from the thousands of replies that I have brought up a real corker of a topic :blink: Not everyone at once 😀

Point well made Bear. The question I would then have is to what end would this global consolidation serve? I certainly do not disagree with your premise as I am not at all sure myself. If for example (and this is an example only!) LH were to actually merge or purchase United how long would it be before real efficiency and productivity benefits were realized? It would seem at the very minimum, (in this example only) LH would have to keep a pretty hefty staff dedicated to running the complexities of United's domestic operations alone. United in this scenario would have to be viewed as a complete division size structure within the overarching corporate body. What then if the Star were to become one firm - how would it be managed? What I am wondering is how these efficiencies would be realized across such disparite geographical and demographic customer bases. I have though, long advocated a central Star purchasing agent for everything used and consumed on a Star aircraft. The mere leverage of extreme bulk buying would of course yield significant savings.
The other question that I have regarding your point is that with global consolidation it would seem that the strong will only grow stronger and drive the medium to weaker players from the field. What for example, could the low-breds from RyanAir do in the face of a behemoth that could finally bring some rather large calibre field weaponry to bear? Within a global airline, capital could be allocated to various "hot spots" to drive any and all competitors from the pitch. No longer would it be United versus (insert a heel-nipper here as I am not all too familiar with whom is United's greatest menace) but a global entity that could afford to suffer grevious short-term losses so as to win the local battle and establish supremacy.
Is the Economist, in its desire for global efficiency within the air industry, realizing what may (or may not - I am not a prognosticator merely a questioner) occur if these consolidations were to occur. No longer would it be colusion when it came to fighting an upstart and even if it were, how would it be adjudicated and halted? Will the penultimate and ultimate beneficiaries be the consumers of air transport or rather those who hold equity in the global giants that will be created through the consolidation?
It is a fascinating idea to me and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
The question I would then have is to what end would this global consolidation serve?

I think you answered your own question:

[W]ith global consolidation it would seem that the strong will only grow stronger and drive the medium to weaker players from the field. ... Within a global airline, capital could be allocated to various "hot spots" to drive any and all competitors from the pitch. No longer would it be United versus (insert a heel-nipper here as I am not all too familiar with whom is United's greatest menace) but a global entity that could afford to suffer grevious short-term losses so as to win the local battle and establish supremacy.
 
"I think you answered your own question:"

Perhaps, but I imagine that I should have phrased that question 'What then is the specific motive of all those who champion foreign ownership....' To what specific end are they seeking? I only layed out two possibilities that I could envision but I cannot divine the motives of those who have been so vocal. What is it that they are looking for from the incresed effeciency of mega-carriers? Customer ease of travel or return on equity yielded from a position of unassailable strength.
Cheers
 
I would think it is for the same reasons any other business in any other industry (######? Microsoft? WalMart? Coca Cola? Toyota?) wants to keep on expanding and take over the world with their particular product. It seems to be what Big Business simply does, and airlines are uniquely constrained by government regulation from behaving like other members of Big Business.

Articluating exactly why there is an inexorable need to continually expand and take over the world is above my pay grade. Maybe someone more familiar with the thinking of the titans of industry could weigh in. But I think airlines just want the opportunity to do what comes natrually to global businesses without the artifical government interference other industries don't have to deal with (at least not to the same degree).
 

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