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The 2011 Depression

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0K111Y20141223

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0 percent clip in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear.

Some of the strength appears to have been sustained, with other data on Tuesday showing consumer spending rising solidly in November, offsetting surprisingly weak durable goods orders.

The reports further set the U.S. economy apart from the rest of the world, where growth is sputtering or activity shrinking.

"Our economy is firing on most cylinders, whereas the global economy is essentially in dire need of a spark," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.

In revising up its third-quarter gross domestic product estimate, the Commerce Department cited stronger consumer and business spending than previously assumed. It was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003.

Previously, the economy was reported to have expanded at a 3.9 percent annual rate. Growth has now been revised up by a total of 1.5 percentage points since an initial estimate in October.

Coupled with a hearty 4.6 percent advance in the prior three months, the economy has now experienced the two strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2003. Underscoring the firming fundamentals, growth in domestic demand was revised up to a 4.1 percent pace, the fastest in nearly four years.

Wall Street had expected growth would be raised to only a 4.3 percent rate."
 
Glenn,
 
Did you get a chance to "Look Inside" the numbers? Where is this growth coming from? With growth like that you'd expect better numbers regarding unemployment, size of workforce, percentage of new jobs that are part time, etc. How much of the growth is due to currency manipulation? With all of this growth we are still in a "Trickle Up" environment similar to just before the Great Depression.
 
While the growth numbers if real are a welcome change, the underlying numbers of Debt and government guarantees will continue to curb growth
 
SparrowHawk said:
Glenn,
 
Did you get a chance to "Look Inside" the numbers? Where is this growth coming from? With growth like that you'd expect better numbers regarding unemployment, size of workforce, percentage of new jobs that are part time, etc. How much of the growth is due to currency manipulation? With all of this growth we are still in a "Trickle Up" environment similar to just before the Great Depression.
 
While the growth numbers if real are a welcome change, the underlying numbers of Debt and government guarantees will continue to curb growth
 
blinders.jpg

 
Things look great on paper when you don't factor in the size of the workforce after '08 and now....just for one thing.
Who has monetized the debt and what has that done to the Dow and economic stats?
Or massaging the employment figures.
 
Dog Wonder said:
Who has time to go through 28, oops 29, pages on a depression that never happened?
 
Do you find that depressing?
 
 
LOL......Merry Christmas too, Buddy
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0K111Y20141223

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0 percent clip in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear.

Some of the strength appears to have been sustained, with other data on Tuesday showing consumer spending rising solidly in November, offsetting surprisingly weak durable goods orders.

The reports further set the U.S. economy apart from the rest of the world, where growth is sputtering or activity shrinking.

"Our economy is firing on most cylinders, whereas the global economy is essentially in dire need of a spark," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.

In revising up its third-quarter gross domestic product estimate, the Commerce Department cited stronger consumer and business spending than previously assumed. It was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003.

Previously, the economy was reported to have expanded at a 3.9 percent annual rate. Growth has now been revised up by a total of 1.5 percentage points since an initial estimate in October.

Coupled with a hearty 4.6 percent advance in the prior three months, the economy has now experienced the two strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2003. Underscoring the firming fundamentals, growth in domestic demand was revised up to a 4.1 percent pace, the fastest in nearly four years.

Wall Street had expected growth would be raised to only a 4.3 percent rate."
 
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department released a fantastic estimate: In the third quarter of 2014, U.S. GDP grew at a rate of 5 percent, the fastest it’s grown since 2003.
But things might not be all they’re cracked up to be.
“Overall the economy is quite weak,” Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital Inc., told TheBlaze this week.

 

The fact that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero, where they’ve been since the onset of the recession in 2007-08, speaks volumes about what the nation’s financial leadership really thinks about the economy’s strength, Schiff said.
 
“If this economy really is so strong, why haven’t they raised rates?” Schiff questioned. “Why do they have to be patient? What are they afraid of?”
 
He said that the third quarter GDP figures, “however the stats are doctored up,” belie the true fragility of the U.S. economy — and its dependence on the Federal Reserve’s largesse.
 
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/12/27/its-gonna-be-a-bloodbath-expert-says-the-economy-is-actually-still-weak-and-that-a-day-of-reckoning-needs-to-happen/
 
Schiff also pointed to less-noticed indicators, like “the 5 percent decline in movie box office sales” to back up his point: “It’s all a bubble masquerading as a recovery.”
 
Schiff also pointed to less-noticed indicators, like “the 5 percent decline in movie box office sales” to back up his point: “It’s all a bubble masquerading as a recovery.”]
People still go to movies? Why aren't they streaming them?
 
I think it was actually Schiff who predicted the well known 2011 depression and the collapse of the economy. His dad is in prison for tax evasion (twice). He sold books and taught people that they did not need to pay taxes. Worked out well for him, huh?

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722762-dont-listen-to-peter-schiff-or-any-other-market-forecaster

"Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824-being-wrong-for-five-years-makes-peter-schiff-right-now
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
I think it was actually Schiff who predicted the well known 2011 depression and the collapse of the economy. His dad is in prison for tax evasion (twice). He sold books and taught people that they did not need to pay taxes. Worked out well for him, huh?

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722762-dont-listen-to-peter-schiff-or-any-other-market-forecaster

"Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824-being-wrong-for-five-years-makes-peter-schiff-right-now
 
The only problem is he's right.  Smoke and mirrors.
 

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