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The 2011 Depression

Glenn Quagmire said:
I think it was actually Schiff who predicted the well known 2011 depression and the collapse of the economy. His dad is in prison for tax evasion (twice). He sold books and taught people that they did not need to pay taxes. Worked out well for him, huh?

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722762-dont-listen-to-peter-schiff-or-any-other-market-forecaster

"Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824-being-wrong-for-five-years-makes-peter-schiff-right-now
 
If you take away flooding the country with food stamps and 96 weeks of unemployment, where would we have been back then?
 
Schiff's old man does the scam......never heard mention of Geithner and some of his pals working for O......why is Schiffs old man an issue?
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-economy-gdp-idUSKBN0K111Y20141223

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0 percent clip in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear.

Some of the strength appears to have been sustained, with other data on Tuesday showing consumer spending rising solidly in November, offsetting surprisingly weak durable goods orders.

The reports further set the U.S. economy apart from the rest of the world, where growth is sputtering or activity shrinking.

"Our economy is firing on most cylinders, whereas the global economy is essentially in dire need of a spark," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.

In revising up its third-quarter gross domestic product estimate, the Commerce Department cited stronger consumer and business spending than previously assumed. It was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003.

Previously, the economy was reported to have expanded at a 3.9 percent annual rate. Growth has now been revised up by a total of 1.5 percentage points since an initial estimate in October.

Coupled with a hearty 4.6 percent advance in the prior three months, the economy has now experienced the two strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2003. Underscoring the firming fundamentals, growth in domestic demand was revised up to a 4.1 percent pace, the fastest in nearly four years.

Wall Street had expected growth would be raised to only a 4.3 percent rate."
 
Suddenly.....
 
Ten warning signs of a market crash in 2015 Stock markets opened lower on the first day of trading of 2015, and the credit markets that forewarned the 2007 crash are showing signs of strain
 
Vix fear gauge
 
For five years, investor fear of risk has been drugged into somnolence by repeated injections of quantitative easing. The lack of fear has led to a world where price and risk have become estranged. As credit conditions are tightened in the US and China, the law of unintended consequences will hold sway in 2015 as investors wake up. The Vix, the so-called “fear index” that measures volatility, spiked to 18.4 on Friday, above the average of 14.5 recorded last year.

Rising US Treasury yields
 
With the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, and the latest QE3 bond-buying programme ending in October last year, credit markets are expecting a poor year for US Treasuries. The yield on two-year US Treasuries has more than doubled from 0.31pc to 0.74pc since October.

Rising US credit risk
 
The wider credit market is also flashing warning signs. The TED spread, as reported by Bloomberg, is the difference between the rate US banks are willing to lend to each other and the Federal Reserve rate, which is seen as risk free. The TED spread is taken as the perceived credit risk in the general economy, and increased 9pc in December to its highest level since the end of 2013.
Interest rate shock
 
Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around five years. The US is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from the current 0-0.25pc around the middle of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening US currency, with the pound falling 10pc against the dollar since July to hit 1.538 on Friday. UK interest rate rises are expected by the end of the year.
Overvalued US market
 
In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio - or Shiller CAPE - for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher - in 1929, 2000 and 2007.



 
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html
 
Dog Wonder said:
What year?
 
“Other details in the report also sounded troubling notes. Long-term unemployment did not drop in December. As in November, 2.8 million Americans remain unemployed for more than six months.
“The average duration of unemployment also remained nearly unchanged at 32.8 weeks—seven and a half months. Americans who lose their jobs take almost twice as long to find new ones as they did before the recession started,” Sherk explained.
“Moreover, average hourly earnings dropped 5 cents in December, almost entirely offsetting Novembers’ wage gains,” Sherk added. “Over the past year average hourly earnings have grown just 1.7 percent. Fortunately inflation has fallen so this represents modest growth in inflation-adjusted wages.”
Despite this, many have been expressing their excitement of what they see as great news.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/10/expert-warns-jobs-report-not-as-good-as-it-would-seem/
 
Falling oil for sometime. Same thing happened '07-'08.
Now China is throwing a wrench into it. On purpose?
 
Read the Fed has no back up plans, no cash to bail out, no programs.
 
Bad thing now, not too many gov'ts in good fiscal shape......
 
See what happens this time....boy that old can got the crap kicked outa it.
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stock-up-on-canned-food-for-stock-market-crash-warns-former-gordon-brown-advisor-10469509.html
 
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html
 
Dr Ron Paul told us this would happen. Over and over and over. Yet we reelected a crony capitalist, bankster Liar. So here we are folks. In the crapper again because the Oligarchy owns most of the politicians.
 
Following this for a while and it appears there aren't a lot of alternatives to get out of the woods so to speak.
Global financial reserves aren't ready to cope. Interest has been at 1% or lower for several years.....what can they do IF?
 
 
"I've been telling everybody for a long time China's taking our jobs. They're taking our money. Be careful: They'll bring us down," Trump said in the post. "You have to know what you're doing. We have nobody that has a clue."
 
More From Trump
 
 
SparrowHawk said:
Dr Ron Paul told us this would happen. Over and over and over. Yet we reelected a crony capitalist, bankster Liar. So here we are folks. In the crapper again because the Oligarchy owns most of the politicians.
 

So far he has not predicted crap. He predicted a drop of significantly more than 10% which is what it dropped over the past two days. It will have to drop considerably more for his 'prediction' to come true. Many have predicted a market correction. When looking at the history of the DJ there have been many corrections over its history.

He may be right, he might not. No way to know till it happens.
 
I wonder how those PRO BUSINESS,................CAPITALISM at any COST,.............401K's are faring   ???????
 
I don't have 1  'RED  F'n  CENT' in a 401k, stock, bond, MF, Pork Bellys, Oil ,.........NONE of that RIGGED...Las Vegas SHIIT.
 
Love those definded benefit, Railroad Retirement board, Social Security Checks though  !!
 
(gotta' make sure I've got an extra key to the Bank (fire proof) safety deposit box though. (where ALL the 'frog skins' are) !
 
Here's to hoping economic calamity predicted by Ron Paul, and championed by Sparrow and the OP will come true one day. Even if it doesn't happen in 2011 (are we there yet?) we can all hold out hope for the day that they can say "I told you so".

One of those old sayings about broken clocks come to mind here. Other than the fact that they are right twice each day...
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
One of those old sayings about broken clocks come to mind here. Other than the fact that they are right twice each day...
On average twice more a day than the prognosticators around here.
 
I suppose his prediction of the housing bubble was just a fluke too.
 
I am not certain that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and the rest can stem the tide. Historically fiat currencies collapse over time. We've managed to avoid that for 102 years.
 
I sincerely hope and pray that Dr. Paul is wrong. At best this is a warning shot for the world to get its economic house in order and tomorrow is none to soon to start doing that.
 
Between the tax and debt burden the Repubs and Dems are crushing the working man. With the staggering debt it will be very difficult to maintain the social safety net AND the military empire building foreign policy. 'Welfare, whether it be Tax credits for General Electric or Tax credits for Obama Care is no longer sustainable. Furthermore the staggering debt stifles our economic growth at every level
 
I love the "free Market" solves all types. They are right except for the annoying fact is we have no free markets. I'm a strong proponent of the invisible hand of the free market, just so long as that hand isn't tipped because it's attached to the Crony Capitalist, Central Bank Oligarchy.
 
Glenn Quagmire said:
Here's to hoping economic calamity predicted by Ron Paul, and championed by Sparrow and the OP will come true one day. Even if it doesn't happen in 2011 (are we there yet?) we can all hold out hope for the day that they can say "I told you so".

One of those old sayings about broken clocks come to mind here. Other than the fact that they are right twice each day...
 
The ironic thing is that if were to happen they would be the one's most negatively affected by it.  Maybe they can live together under a bridge and talk about how Obama ruined the world economy.
 
The biggest impact of a worldwide currency/debt crisis would be felt by??? OH Geez! Guess who? Get some Windex and clean that mirror so you can look clearly at those affected most. Our fiat currency since 1913 has inflated away 97% of the value of the USD.
 
This will impact Seniors and disabled most as they rely on Social Security and if we collapse so far as to cause hyperinflation they will be living in cardboard boxes. As to blaming Obama, this started long before he got here. However both he and Mr Bush made it far worse.
 

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