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The Death Of An Industry

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mweiss said:
I agree that many small communities would lose service (perhaps it's because they can't be served profitably???). But where on earth is your evidence about internationial fares?
You are basically supporting what I've been saying on this BB for a long time...

The low fares that people want can only result from an industry in turmoil. As long as there are start-ups who can afford to undercut the competition and provide a service below normal cost because of venture capital, tax breaks, free airplanes, slave labor, etc., the consumer will be happy. So every 5-10 years as companies mature, they go out of business to make room for the next new entry.

This is exactly why the industry needs regulation. The consumer doesn't want a stable industry because it would mean prices would rise to a more reasonable level again. People want to fly anywhere on Earth for the same fee as riding Greyhound.

I will not debate this with you forever. There has been enough evidence posted on this thread that proves that you do GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR.

As for my comment about international fares, Let's see an LCC fly from Grand Rapids to Asia without charging $10,000 or per seat. You simply can not provide international service without a hub and spoke system. You need feed to fill the seats of a 747 or 777. That's exactly why these niche carriers could never provide the service a legacy airline can. They are 2 different animals, and this constant comparison between the two is getting old. Either you get it or you don't.

If you your only answer is "So What?" then it's obvious that you don't, and I give up trying to explain it.

Enjoy your cheap tickets. You get what you pay for.

Over and out,
767jetz
 
dbcwaar said:
Lets not forget that Value jet purchasing Airtran and then adopting their name to spin the DC-9 crash they had into the everglades, or America West's being fined for 41 thousand safety violations back in 1998! I believe this was the largest fine in FAA history at around 5 million.. If I recall they were not securing luggage in their plans and had some various other safety issues...



http://www.wsws.org/workers/1998/july1998/air-j16.shtml
AWA had significant operational problems around 1998, but again, I'd say that's an example of where the mgt focused on fixing the operational issues, and that has helped them maintain/improve their cost position, not caused them to become high cost. As much as the network changes and new pricing structure, the turnaround in their operations has been a major part of the reason for their survival. (Any one want to crunch the Mx costs per seat mile or some similar metric between 98 and now for AirTran?)

Just because a supplier is shoddy and cheap (sticker price for the service), doesn't mean it's low cost (total cost of outsourcing the work). I bet SW is looking at the cost of oversight and rework (as well as safety risk) and deciding they can do the work better and cheaper in house when they are insourcing the work. In fact, when you cite SW as an example, it proves the point -- you can be focussed on being low cost and maintain focus on safety at the same time. Local12 -- you can't have it both ways. Or are you claiming that Southwest has suddenly lost it's focus on cost control?

When looking at outsourcing (any industry) you have to look at total cost of the outsourced work, including contract mgt, oversight, rework (if there are quality issues), costs of disruption to schedulke if rework is required, and the potentially huge costs of poor work causing a safety issue or, God forbid, an accident.

Local12 -- I'm not disagreeing in any way with what you have seen first hand. But just as LH Technik and Haeco do high quality work, others will see the need for quality work and offering lower total cost -- not just a cheaper sticker price and shoddy work (as discussed on several threads -- e.g., ST MAE). Just because Local12 you've worked in a low-cost shop and found it to be poor quality, I wouldn't put all 3rd party suppliers (at whatever price point) in the same bucket, which is what you are doing.

Mx gets particularly emotive because of the very real safety concerns. But just as jetBlue and Virgin have shown that you can deliver a higher quality service for coach or biz class passengers at lower cost, just as Toyota and Honda showed that you don't need to buy a $40,000 car to get quality and reliability, the Mx providers that survive and succeed, long-term (in-house, OEM, or 3rd party) will be those that work out how deliver high quality at lower costs. Is it difficult, yes? Can cost cutting lead to decisions that impact safety if not thought through, yes. Does that mean it can't be done (high quality, high safety, high productivity, lower cost)? No -- it absolutely can be.

767jetz: your last post, summarized, says you cannot have universal service and low fares, so re-regulate. I.e., the public is wrong, government knows better. Lots of companies have said that this or that, demanded by consumer, can't be done, and have gone to the wall. It may cause a lot of change in the process, but the companies in any industry that win are those that decide it can be done, and focus on figuring out how to do it, rather than claiming it can't be done. No-one thought you could get a package overnight from any point A in the US to any point B in the US overnight, but FedEx saw the demand for that (and UPS (I'm guessing), USPS (certainly) all existed at the time) and figured out how to do it.

I think that's the fundamental debate on this board. Those who believe that something can be done (even if it's bloody diffcult and few do it well now) and those who have just decided it can't be done. It just so happens, the focus is heavy Mx, but it could be anything with a price tag.
 
The Ronin said:
Hey maintenance....why are you wasting your breath? Why are you wasting your time? You and I know whats going on. You and I know how much we catch before these a**holes climb aboard. Was on a guppy, intermittant aft galley light log. Been relamped several times, or cleared with op check. I dug a little deeper, OSV been messing around ceiling area. Got up in there where the ballast is, shook the harness and bingo, we had sparklers. They didn't tighten down the lugs. We got a lump out of BFM, been chronic since the day it left with stab msgs. Also, first class laptop pwr cycled on and off with PA. Alot of OSV wiring in P8 area, stab trim indicator shorting out the MAWEA cards. Didn't go into OSV like that, but came out with it. Was down for a week. Found the laptop pwr wired to the PA keyline relay and not decompression relay where it should have been. We contract over at AW. Planes are a hodge podge of tail numbers. Really junky airplanes and they have a hard time with parts because of such dis-jointed effectivities, but people climb on all day long, just like ATA next to them. I just do what I can. F*ck' em, sooner or later let time tell the story. I ain't shedding one freak'n tear. Appreciate yourself, appreciate your fellow mechanic (the ones that give a sh*t and work anyways), cause all the rest is falling on deaf ears. :up:
Yer ain't just whistling Dixie there Bro. Folks don't want to know what goes into the sausages they're eating. But it's ok, the FAA says so. Go along to get along. Hey, if Forklift Joe can stay in the bidniz, there can't be a problem with maintenance.
 
dbcwaar said:
Lets not forget that Value jet purchasing Airtran and then adopting their name to spin the DC-9 crash they had into the everglades, or America West's being fined for 41 thousand safety violations back in 1998! I believe this was the largest fine in FAA history at around 5 million.. If I recall they were not securing luggage in their plans and had some various other safety issues...
 
"look im not ging to say SOUTHWEST MECHANICS are hacks and thats what your trying to twist my words and say, i know several s.w. mech. and they are very knowledgeable but the company has outsourced maint. for years and its now rearing its ugly head. THEY ARE NOW BRINGING MORE WORK INHOUSE BECAUSE OF THIS FACTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!! does that spell it out where you can understand now?"

Local 12, getting a little emotionally bent over this, are you? Got enough exclamation marks in there? Relax...it's just a bulletin board. We're not going to solve the problems of the airline industry here. 🙄

Now...Who's trying to put words in whose mouth? I never once thought you were taking a shot at Southwest Mechanics as a workgroup...I thought I cleared that up in my last post. I meant exactly what I said...I believed you were making implications as to the safety of the aircraft. I replied that there was no correlation between a "dirty" plane and the maintenance work done on it. And I was saying that our safety record bears our quality out, contract maintenance or no. You were also implying that cheap tickets = poor maintenance (work, not the workgroup), and I'm also saying that's an incorrect correlation...or at least at Southwest.

Now, are we bringing more maintenance back inhouse? Yes. Is it a quality issue? Depends on whom you speak with. Quite frankly, what I've been told by many mechanics is that it's more an issue of speed...our mechanics can do it faster. Thus, cheaper. Not to mention better. And as long as our mechanics remain efficient, we will likely continue to do as much of our own maintenance as we can. We still have some of our heavy maintenance outsourced, and probably always will, because building enough hangars for that type of work requires a ton of money.

And if we ever had to, it's not likely that we could sell a hangar very easily to get that money back if necessary.

And if we want to rip on contract maintenance, we can, because I'd much rather have our own maintenance do the work as well. But I'll also say this...to be fair, I can think of an awful lot of aircraft incidents/accidents that have been traced back to inhouse maintenance. So I wouldn't be TOO quick to throw stones. JMHO
 
767jetz said:
You are basically supporting what I've been saying on this BB for a long time...
About the only thing we seem to agree on is that airline service to communities of less than 10,000 people is an endangered species.

The low fares that people want can only result from an industry in turmoil.
People just don't want to pay more than they have to. It's that simple. It's not about Greyhound fares. It's not about people not being happy unless those serving them are on welfare. It's about people gravitating toward the greatest value. That's no different in the airline industry than it has ever been in any industry.

The consumer doesn't want a stable industry because it would mean prices would rise to a more reasonable level again.
The consumer doesn't care about the stability of the industry unless that stability benefits the consumer. Why should it be any different?

I will not debate this with you forever. There has been enough evidence posted on this thread that proves that you do GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR.
Not really. If people were getting more value by paying 10x as much, they'd be paying 10x as much. Saying that you get more by paying more is rather meaningless. If you don't get twice as much value by paying twice as much money, then you're actually getting less than you're paying for. Value is the key.

As for my comment about international fares, Let's see an LCC fly from Grand Rapids to Asia without charging $10,000 or per seat.
I hardly see how the lack of service at GRR means that LCCs are a failure. I'm sure they can get someone from OAK to Asia for under $1,000 per seat. And I suspect they'd be willing to drive the three hours to MDW to get to OAK for $200, since that'd mean they would get to Asia for $1,200 instead of $10,000. I'd happily drive three hours to save over $8,000, and I suspect the vast majority of the flying public would do the same.

You simply can not provide international service without a hub and spoke system. You need feed to fill the seats of a 747 or 777.
I have two answers to that. First, every LCC has a hub system. It's just that WN has far more hubs than anyone else. What else would you call DAL, HOU, PHX, LAS, BWI, etc.?

Secondly, it'll only be a few more years before the 7E7 is flying. You won't need to fill a 777; half that size will do. If there was ever an airplane designed to put LCCs in the international space, it's the 7E7.

That's exactly why these niche carriers could never provide the service a legacy airline can. They are 2 different animals, and this constant comparison between the two is getting old. Either you get it or you don't.
And, apparently, you don't. Because the airline world isn't binary. True, WN has held one end of the spectrum, and UA the other. But B6 has shown that you can climb up from the bottom. This is precisely what Toyota did; once upon a time people put Toyota into the "LCC" bucket and GM into the "legacy" bucket and said the same things you said. It was wrong in the 1970s for the automobile industry, and it's wrong now for the airline industry.

The winners going forward are those who give the greatest value. That means getting the most for your money, not getting from point A to point B at the lowest price. Value means different things to different people, and so the market will likely segment along different value lines, just as in other industries. The winners will be those who meet the needs of each segment the best.
 
And it’s worth noting that GM is back in the business of being a world-class automotive manufacturer but they do have significant scars from their legacy days. Most of the Asian manufacturers are far more profitable than GM and now build their highest volume models on US soil; GM hasn’t given up (they have huge pension obligations too) but they decided several years ago that they can’t do business the way it was done for years and they didn’t expect anyone would fix their problems for them.

You won’t see the legacies as a whole totally abdicate their worldwide leadership but there will not be as many legacies as there are today and there will be LCCs flying international routes. The legacies that do remain will be larger and obviously much more capable of facing the competition.
 
hobbs im very emotional about aircraft maintenace because its my job, i do it with pride and expertise. i have seen enough shoddy work done by contract hack shops to know what im talking about so ill not try to convince you or anyone else on this board! we are starting a dangerous trend in this industry and i believe time will certainly be the yard stick by which measure. as far as southwest goes im very pleased that they are realizing it can be done cheaper with better quality without compromising safety. yes there have been accidents at the majors and they to farm out alot of work on airframe, powerplants, and thousands of parts which can have unforseen flaws but and this is a BIG but, inhouse maintenace overall is far superior. ive seen both sides so you or no one else will hide that truth from me or any other mechanic who has turned wrenches in this ailing industry. cheaper isnt always better especially when things go wrong at 30,000 feet and this is JMHO.
 
"This is exactly why the industry needs regulation."

Yeah, that would be nice wouldn't it, once again the majors get to carve up the country and routes into a nice little comfort zone. The new CAB can set the prices and no new entrants will be allowed.

Wonder how much DAL and the CAB will cede to Airtran, probably nothing and Airtran will be asked to cease operating, same with jetblue, ATA etc.

I think that one ranks right up there with the no furlough clause!
 
The way you stated everything in that last post, I agree with everything you said. May have taken 5 pages of discussion to get there, but we made it.
 
hobbes said:
We still have some of our heavy maintenance outsourced, and probably always will, because building enough hangars for that type of work requires a ton of money.
Hobbes,

Hey! :up: Idea here, maybe you can share the DIA (United) hagar with us (Frontier). We don't outsource any maintenance except to the Live TV folks, which is under contract. 😀
 
hobbes said:
"as i said in the end you get what you pay for!............oh yea have you ever looked at how dirty those southwest jets look up close? makes you wonder about what you cant see! .......enjoy your cheap flight"

Low blow. Better take a good look at Southwest's safety record and compare it to other carriers, including your own, before you start throwing stones.
Im jumping in late hobbes, but good post.

I don't see where the outside of our a/c is any more dirty that anyone elses. But you're correct, I'd tend to worry about an airlines safety record more that I would if their paint was dirty.
 
Excellent post mweiss, :up: . Cheap seats can equal a quality product, :up: .
 
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