THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL

[Bob Owens]

Mr. Owens;

Dont hang your hat on history. August 25th will be the last flight of the A300. The last A300 "B" check will be in July or early August. So unless JFK is going to get another "B" check, JFK will become just another class II station.
Also, Delta does just fine at JFK with MORE flights than AA, and no hangar. Hangars are only there for scheduled maintenance, anything that cant be fixed on the line will be ferried out, or they will rent space as needed. You may soon see JFK loose about 40-50 in headcount, and the integration of avionics into the general workforce.

Well there are around 350 mechanics at JFK, the B-check generates around 60 heads, so what do you think the other 300 are doing? APU changes, engine changes, fuel tank repair,wiring harnesses, windshield changes, antenna changes, gear swings and all sorts of other work in addition to regular maintenance. There are 7 bays in Hangar 10, the B-check uses one, 5 days a week at most, stop by any night of the week and you will see that every bay is occupied. With or without the B-check there's plenty of work to be done.

By the way you cant always ferry things out. Delta rents hangar space at JFK all the time and their nearest hub , Atlanta, is a lot closer than DFW.

Avionics and maintenance arent seperated because of the B-check, they are separated because of the size and depth of the operation. Most Class 2 cities operate 2 maybe three different fleet types, JFK has 6 different fleet types. Its very difficult to become proficent on every system of six different fleet types. If they want to integrate the two its fine by me, more overtime.

I dont think we will see a layoff even if they dont put another B-check in. The ACEP audit and attrition (through retirements and transfers) will place enough of a challenge on just keeping the place staffed. With the 100% compliance drive (driven by the company, when mechanics initiate it they call it a job action) more mechaincs will be needed.

Right now there's a lot of pent up attrition in that many mechanics who want to retire are waiting to see if there's a package or some other incentive. The sting of the market drop (uncertainty creates fear which makes people more reluctant to make a life changing decision)is wearing off and many are simply just tired. Workloads are increasing but they made it though the winter so why not stick around to see what they're offering? The company threw VBR rumors out there for line maint as bait to get them to stick around, the fact is they need them. By next winter we will likely see a surge of retirements either way. Most wont want to work through another winter, especially if workloads continue to increase, which they will. Seven years of maintenance cutbacks have taken their toll on the fleet.

The fact is despite all the doom and gloom this is a time of opportunity of Mechanics, even though most dont realize it. The fact is there's a shortage of mechanics.

At JFK we had close to 300 names on the recall list around 2 years ago, I believe the list has been exhausted.

Perhaps thats one reason why the company wanted to require that mechanics accept a position in the system or be terminated from the company in their Article 46 proposal.

*There are already real shortages at large MROs and manufacturing facilities. Higher fuel costs make far away MROs less cost effective.

In 2007 the number of new FAA certified mechanics is down to just 1500. Thats 1500 for the entire aviation industry, airlines, Business, manufacturing, MRO, and General Aviation. AA alone will likely attrit 500 mechanics over the next year.

1500 for the whole year, and to make things worse(better) half of the FAR147 schools have shut down permanently over the last 5 years. 37 of them shut down in the last 18 months. The numbers of new A&Ps for 2008 and 2009 will likely continue downward, could you imagine anyone who is starting out now wanting to go work for an airline? Do you think any current mechanics would let their kids follow in their footsteps?

There's no new supply coming, and for an industry thats expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.8% that means that the shortage of mechanics will be a very real problem even if this recession extends for a long period of time.

The average age in Local 562 is over 45, there was only one mechanic in a Local that covers JFK, LGA, EWR, PHL, SJU and BOS that is under 30 years of age, and he is 29. The majority of the workforce is beyond the halfway point in their working life (figure they start at 18 and quit at 62).

If AA were to layoff any of their mechanics they would screw themselves because unlike years ago when the majority of recalls would return the overwhelming majority of them do not return. Unlike years ago this job doesnt offer much. One week of paid vacation, work holidays weekends and night shift for $14.74/hr isnt going to draw in too many new workers. Target pays $15 and offers more vacation and higher shift premiums and are usually convienently located, and if you screw up you wont kill anybody , get fined or go to jail.


The fact is the airlines have successfully beaten us, they kicked our asses, and now people who have the skillsets we have, the skillsets needed to keep airplanes flying safely, simply arent coming here anymore. They can make more money under better conditions elsewhere.

1500 new A&Ps for the entire Aviation industry, most of them will likely go to GA. They will avoid the big high cost cities. They wont get rich but they will live comfortably.

The airlines will push for the ability to bring in unliscenced mechanics on the line but we would rather burn the place down first.



So as the company drags out the contract talks the shortage will continue to become more acute until we see where flights are cancelled not because of parts but because they dont have enough people to work the items.

Sure, there might be 10 million unemployed people out there, but how many of them can fix airplanes?

ACEP Audit
100% Compliance
Attrition
1500 new A&Ps issued for the entire year
A&P schools closing down
4.8% annual growth for the industry

T-I-I-I-IME IS ON MY SIDE,,Yes IT IS, T-I-I-I-IME is on my side, yes it is!!!

(*Thanks to Bill O'Brien R.I.P. for his last article in AMT)

 

[AA767JET]

My God!
Bob you are so right you hit the nail on the head on this one, hats off to you Sir.

 

[MCI transplant]

Does MCI have enough overnighters to justify being a B check station?...

Yeah, didn't think so....

Is the JFK hangar still on a month to month lease? Might they just be planning to keep it until August?...

<_< ------ Eric, if you think I'm trying to compare MCI to JFK, I agree! No contest! JFK has MCI beat! But my coment was in response to Bobs statement that in todays invironment hanger space (nation wide) is an assit! Or did I take his statement wrong?------ If indeed that's true, than AA has quit a few assets it's not utilizing! You stated " you need it where planes are"?----- Well, if not MCI, what about LAX?------ Planes, layovers, etc., they have plenty of! ------ Unused hanger space, also under utilized!

 

[MTheory]

Well there are around 350 mechanics at JFK, the B-check generates around 60 heads, so what do you think the other 300 are doing? APU changes, engine changes, fuel tank repair,wiring harnesses, windshield changes, antenna changes, gear swings and all sorts of other work in addition to regular maintenance. There are 7 bays in Hangar 10, the B-check uses one, 5 days a week at most, stop by any night of the week and you will see that every bay is occupied. With or without the B-check there's plenty of work to be done.

By the way you cant always ferry things out. Delta rents hangar space at JFK all the time and their nearest hub , Atlanta, is a lot closer than DFW.

Avionics and maintenance arent seperated because of the B-check, they are separated because of the size and depth of the operation. Most Class 2 cities operate 2 maybe three different fleet types, JFK has 6 different fleet types. Its very difficult to become proficent on every system of six different fleet types. If they want to integrate the two its fine by me, more overtime.

I dont think we will see a layoff even if they dont put another B-check in. The ACEP audit and attrition (through retirements and transfers) will place enough of a challenge on just keeping the place staffed. With the 100% compliance drive (driven by the company, when mechanics initiate it they call it a job action) more mechaincs will be needed.

Right now there's a lot of pent up attrition in that many mechanics who want to retire are waiting to see if there's a package or some other incentive. The sting of the market drop (uncertainty creates fear which makes people more reluctant to make a life changing decision)is wearing off and many are simply just tired. Workloads are increasing but they made it though the winter so why not stick around to see what they're offering? The company threw VBR rumors out there for line maint as bait to get them to stick around, the fact is they need them. By next winter we will likely see a surge of retirements either way. Most wont want to work through another winter, especially if workloads continue to increase, which they will. Seven years of maintenance cutbacks have taken their toll on the fleet.

The fact is despite all the doom and gloom this is a time of opportunity of Mechanics, even though most dont realize it. The fact is there's a shortage of mechanics.

At JFK we had close to 300 names on the recall list around 2 years ago, I believe the list has been exhausted.

Perhaps thats one reason why the company wanted to require that mechanics accept a position in the system or be terminated from the company in their Article 46 proposal.

*There are already real shortages at large MROs and manufacturing facilities. Higher fuel costs make far away MROs less cost effective.

In 2007 the number of new FAA certified mechanics is down to just 1500. Thats 1500 for the entire aviation industry, airlines, Business, manufacturing, MRO, and General Aviation. AA alone will likely attrit 500 mechanics over the next year.

1500 for the whole year, and to make things worse(better) half of the FAR147 schools have shut down permanently over the last 5 years. 37 of them shut down in the last 18 months. The numbers of new A&Ps for 2008 and 2009 will likely continue downward, could you imagine anyone who is starting out now wanting to go work for an airline? Do you think any current mechanics would let their kids follow in their footsteps?

There's no new supply coming, and for an industry thats expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.8% that means that the shortage of mechanics will be a very real problem even if this recession extends for a long period of time.

The average age in Local 562 is over 45, there was only one mechanic in a Local that covers JFK, LGA, EWR, PHL, SJU and BOS that is under 30 years of age, and he is 29. The majority of the workforce is beyond the halfway point in their working life (figure they start at 18 and quit at 62).

If AA were to layoff any of their mechanics they would screw themselves because unlike years ago when the majority of recalls would return the overwhelming majority of them do not return. Unlike years ago this job doesnt offer much. One week of paid vacation, work holidays weekends and night shift for $14.74/hr isnt going to draw in too many new workers. Target pays $15 and offers more vacation and higher shift premiums and are usually convienently located, and if you screw up you wont kill anybody , get fined or go to jail.


The fact is the airlines have successfully beaten us, they kicked our asses, and now people who have the skillsets we have, the skillsets needed to keep airplanes flying safely, simply arent coming here anymore. They can make more money under better conditions elsewhere.

1500 new A&Ps for the entire Aviation industry, most of them will likely go to GA. They will avoid the big high cost cities. They wont get rich but they will live comfortably.

The airlines will push for the ability to bring in unliscenced mechanics on the line but we would rather burn the place down first.



So as the company drags out the contract talks the shortage will continue to become more acute until we see where flights are cancelled not because of parts but because they dont have enough people to work the items.

Sure, there might be 10 million unemployed people out there, but how many of them can fix airplanes?

ACEP Audit
100% Compliance
Attrition
1500 new A&Ps issued for the entire year
A&P schools closing down
4.8% annual growth for the industry

T-I-I-I-IME IS ON MY SIDE,,Yes IT IS, T-I-I-I-IME is on my side, yes it is!!!

(*Thanks to Bill O'Brien R.I.P. for his last article in AMT)

Thats funny..... I think Arpey is singing the same tune. You and he must be best buds. I have been under this travesty of a contract for 6 years, and no end in sight. Time just keeps on tickin'.

 

[Bob Owens]

In 2007 the number of new FAA certified mechanics is down to just 1500. Thats 1500 for the entire aviation industry, airlines, Business, manufacturing, MRO, and General Aviation. AA alone will likely attrit 500 mechanics over the next year.

OOps, read that wrong, it was down by 1500, not down to 1500. Either way the replacement rate is not there. They need at least 8000 a year, they're getting less than 6000.

 

[FWAAA]

Given that the legacy airlines have not hired off-the-street mechanics for the past seven years, I would have figured that fewer students would enroll in training programs. But if legacies hang the help wanted signs outside the door, gotta figure that more kids would enroll.

And if too few mechanics are being minted, that can only help the wage situation. Too few mechanics = higher wages.

 

[Hopeful]

And if too few mechanics are being minted, that can only help the wage situation. Too few mechanics = higher wages.

One can only wish that were true. That logic is reserved for MBA's, not mechanics. When the AMT pool is dried up, wages will not increase to attract people into the field. What companies will do is lobby the government to use non-licensed mechanics to maintain aircraft.
The only thing that might prevent them from succeeding in this transformation is liability.

Right now, the company has us doing online training drilling into our heads continuously how we must not deviate from the maintenance manual. They beat into us how if we screw up, it's our licenses that are in jeopardy and how they will not protect us.

If a non-licensed mechanic screws up, it falls on AA because of the absence of a license.

But who knows, the bean counters might determine it will still be cheaper to use non-licensed mechanics by paying them half with no benefits and would far outweigh any lawsuit.

 

[Bob Owens]

One can only wish that were true. That logic is reserved for MBA's, not mechanics. When the AMT pool is dried up, wages will not increase to attract people into the field. What companies will do is lobby the government to use non-licensed mechanics to maintain aircraft.
The only thing that might prevent them from succeeding in this transformation is liability.

Right now, the company has us doing online training drilling into our heads continuously how we must not deviate from the maintenance manual. They beat into us how if we screw up, it's our licenses that are in jeopardy and how they will not protect us.

If a non-licensed mechanic screws up, it falls on AA because of the absence of a license.

But who knows, the bean counters might determine it will still be cheaper to use non-licensed mechanics by paying them half with no benefits and would far outweigh any lawsuit.

I think both you and FWAA are right. The shortage is certainly a plus for us and I agree that the airlines will lobby to reduce the skill levels but i think they will go by way of FAR66. Remember that? Give the airlines the ability to issue non-portable FAA certificates. The ACEP audit could be a front operation to say "They did so well with the audit let them go the next step and issue their own Certs".

They will hope that the fact that the certs will be non-portable will be the anchor, the leverage replacement that the airlines lose as they junk the pensions.

The fact is that legally the airlines can use unliscenced mechs on the line, our contract is what stops them. Look at Article 1(g) in the contract. In July and August of 2001 we were lobbying hard against the TA, one of the issues was FAR 66, During a break in the Kreuz Arbitration Art Luby asked me to back off and agreed to put in language addressing FAR66. Not exactly ironclad but 9-11 pretty much sealed the deal.

With the non-portable company issued certificates the airlines will claim that all their mechanics are liscenced. They will spin it that the FAA changed the certification requirements and they continue to meet those requirements.

This plan has been in place for a while. It started with the name change from A&P to AMT.

 

[Bob Owens]

Given that the legacy airlines have not hired off-the-street mechanics for the past seven years, I would have figured that fewer students would enroll in training programs. But if legacies hang the help wanted signs outside the door, gotta figure that more kids would enroll.

And if too few mechanics are being minted, that can only help the wage situation. Too few mechanics = higher wages.

I agree as far as the wages but I doubt that Help wanted signs with $14/hr base, work weekends, holidays and nights with only 5 paid days off a year would up the enrollments, besides half of the schools that were still open in 2001 are no longer even open.

The challenge will be a PR battle to get the public to want FAA Liscenced A&Ps fixing the planes they get on vs the airlines drive to put in company certified mechanics with minimal training in their place.
The biggest challenge will be to get A&Ps to reject the AMT title.

I'm an A&P. an FAA certified Airframe and Powerplant mechanic. An AMT is anyone who works on airplanes, certified by the FAA or not.

 

[eolesen]

I'm an A&P. an FAA certified Airframe and Powerplant mechanic. An AMT is anyone who works on airplanes, certified by the FAA or not.

You might not like having non-A&P's people working on aircraft, but I suspect you'd have a far better argument for higher pay on the line.

Aside from tradition and preserving union dues, is it really necessary to be a generalist (A&P) if you're working nothing but overhaul, or in a specialty like Avionics? Sure, it gives you a broader base of education, but if you never use the skills you learn in school, they're fairly useless after a few years.

They may have the same license and education, but the doctor who has done nothing but breast implants or radiology isn't going to be able to fill in as an ER doctor, and vice versa...

I almost can see a case for separate licenses. A&P for the line, perhaps Avionics as a standalone license and not an add-on, and perhaps something for the overhaul guys who do nothing but components. Just a thought...

 

[Hopeful]

You might not like having non-A&P's people working on aircraft, but I suspect you'd have a far better argument for higher pay on the line.




I almost can see a case for separate licenses. A&P for the line, perhaps Avionics as a standalone license and not an add-on, and perhaps something for the overhaul guys who do nothing but components. Just a thought...

The problem is the company wants more concessions from us without returning one thin dime to us. It's not like they're offering an outstanding generous contract in exchange for contractual changes that benefit them. They do not want to give us ANYTHING.
Instead of just consulting with former AA management acquaintances, speak with a local president like Bob Owens about what the company wants from us.

You may see it as a "need for change," but remember the company does not want to negotiate in good faith.

 

[MCI transplant]

You might not like having non-A&P's people working on aircraft, but I suspect you'd have a far better argument for higher pay on the line.

Aside from tradition and preserving union dues, is it really necessary to be a generalist (A&P) if you're working nothing but overhaul, or in a specialty like Avionics? Sure, it gives you a broader base of education, but if you never use the skills you learn in school, they're fairly useless after a few years.

They may have the same license and education, but the doctor who has done nothing but breast implants or radiology isn't going to be able to fill in as an ER doctor, and vice versa...

I almost can see a case for separate licenses. A&P for the line, perhaps Avionics as a standalone license and not an add-on, and perhaps something for the overhaul guys who do nothing but components. Just a thought...

<_< ------ Eric, I believe the bottom line here is, like Bob said, "liability"! An A&P is liable for "everything" he signs off! That record of his signature stays with that Aircarft "forever", or until it's cut up for scrape! That fact alone should speaks volumes for consideration of a premium in compensation!!! Now if the company wants that liability by issuing their own certificates, so be it!------- But I don't see that happening!

 

[eolesen]

Sorry, but I'm thinking beyond the company certificates to the FAA, and wondering if "one-license-fits-all" really works anymore.

 

[Hopeful]

Sorry, but I'm thinking beyond the company certificates to the FAA, and wondering if "one-license-fits-all" really works anymore.

An Airframe and Powerplant license encompasses everything. There isn't an avionics license.
Possessing both is required to sign a logbook. That's the way it stands now. Until airline management ban together under the ATA umbrella and push for eliminating the skill level required by law.

 

[MCI transplant]

Sorry, but I'm thinking beyond the company certificates to the FAA, and wondering if "one-license-fits-all" really works anymore.

<_< ----- O.K., so the company certifies that there will be, say, six categories of mechanics. One: sheet metal, two: power plant, three: fuel systems, four: avionics, five: hydraulics, and control systems, six: General, or interior.------ Now, my next question: Who takes the responsibility, or liability, for the actions of all of the above mechanics? :unsure: -------I'll tell you a little something I've learned while working for AA! ------ When we worked for TWA, and a part broken on an Aircraft, we took that part off, and fixed it, and put the Aircraft back in service.----- When we transitioned to AA, and a part broke on an Aircraft, the part was either sent back to Tulsa, or discarded, and a new part was installed.------ One day I asked my Supervisor why, if I could fix it, I was told to discard it and put in a new one. ------ Well, with TWA we couldn't afford new parts every time something broke, so we did what we did best, fixed it! ------ Well here was his answer: " If you fix it and something should happen to it, who's liable? You are!----- If you put a new part on, and something should happen to it, who's liable? The Company who manufactured it! ------ Two different philosophies! But it illustrates AA managements feeling as pertains to Liability!!!