UAL + CAL = AMR + NWA

[Fly]

If anything was ever learned from Pan Am, I can assure you that NW is never selling their Asian routes unless it is an equal merger. AA doesn't normally play fair so I doubt they'll be part of the equation.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I 2nd the high flying sister. airlines do learn from other's mistakes and NW will not sell one iota of its core flying assets unless they are ready to shut themselves down. And remember that their Chinese authorities are divided between the passenger and cargo divisions.

While these hypothetical exercises are fun, there has to be some basic understanding of each of these airlines to come up w/ any scenario. I'll not belabor the point much longer except to say that the characterizations of DL above are simply incorrect. 1st, DL has pulled an aweful lot of capacity out of the domestic system, particularly leisure markets. DL is not solely a leisure airline anymore. And, although DL is expanding aggressively in international markets, they are far from unique.... Tel Aviv is as different from Edinburgh as Sao Paulo is from Budapest. DL has really diversified its international growth very well. 2nd, DL is starting ATL-TLV in 2 months and that route cannot be flown w/ a 767. DL has also applied for ATL-PEK (Beijing) again and word is they are likely to get it this time around. 3rd, DL is not a high cost airline. In the 3rd quarter of 05 (the last quarterly statistics available), DL had the lowest non-fuel CASM among the majors/legacies. Bankruptcy will only lower their costs further. DL is moving both the revenue and cost levers very quickly in the right directions. Their Nov revenue filing w/ the court showed that they have essentially stopped burning cash through operations... pretty commendable in a high fuel period just 2 full months after filing bankruptcy.

And because the industry is so cyclical, DL will recover about the time that some other carriers start experiencing turbulence again - and the current "up" business cyle is likely to come to a close within a couple years.

 

[FWAAA]

I 2nd the high flying sister. airlines do learn from other's mistakes and NW will not sell one iota of its core flying assets unless they are ready to shut themselves down. And remember that their Chinese authorities are divided between the passenger and cargo divisions.

There are no limitations on the NW China authorities; they are all combination authorities, which allow NW to fly pax and/or cargo (or, as the name implies, a combination of both, if it wishes) with every one of their 29 weekly frequencies.

Even if DL has the lowest CASM (ex-fuel), the fact is - you gotta buy fuel. Ex-Wages, someone else is probably cheaper. But you gotta pay wages.

Having the lowest CASM isn't a guarantee of profits. JetBlue has much lower CASM yet it is expected to report a 4th Q loss tomorrow. What matters is the delta between RASM and CASM, not the absolute numbers.

 

[Cosmo]

There are no limitations on the NW China authorities; they are all combination authorities, which allow NW to fly pax and/or cargo (or, as the name implies, a combination of both, if it wishes) with every one of their 29 weekly frequencies.

Sorry, but that's not correct. Northwest has 21 combination frequencies (all currently used via NRT) and 8 cargo-only frequencies per week to China. In fact, the 3 most recent weekly China frequencies received by Northwest were awarded in a DOT cargo route case (I don't remember the Docket number) where IIRC Fedex, UPS and Polar also received 3 weekly frequencies each in one of DOT's more King Solomon-like decisions. And if Northwest doesn't use these cargo frequencies, they will be returned to DOT to be awarded to one or more other cargo carriers.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

World Traveler,

If I'm understanding you correctly, then DL "hooks up with NO ONE"

If, that IS what your saying, I AGREE wholeheartedly.

Minus their JFK opperation, DL would only bring(to anyone they "may" combine with) DOMESTIC..DOMESTIC..DOMESTIC, which you and I KNOW, COST's MORE $$ to operate than it's worth.(blame JB WN) !!

Most of us "experts" know things change by the DAY, in this business, and as far as AA is concerned, the HOT topic is AA/BA.

Unlike AA/BA, UAL(even if they go UA/LH), still needs CO for central/south America, not to mention a nice "juicy" NY area HUB(EWR)

Like the ol' commercial (use to ) say,
"You can pay me now, or you can pay me (MORE) later"
translated,
"YOU can "consolidate NOW, or LATER(providing "your" still a "going concern"

Forget(for the moment) the Bankruptcy's.

DL is in a very UNDESIRERABLE position, given their Worldwide ROUTE system !!(or lack thereof)

NH/BB's

 

[FWAAA]

Sorry, but that's not correct. Northwest has 21 combination frequencies (all currently used via NRT) and 8 cargo-only frequencies per week to China. In fact, the 3 most recent weekly China frequencies received by Northwest were awarded in a DOT cargo route case (I don't remember the Docket number) where IIRC Fedex, UPS and Polar also received 3 weekly frequencies each in one of DOT's more King Solomon-like decisions. And if Northwest doesn't use these cargo frequencies, they will be returned to DOT to be awarded to one or more other cargo carriers.

Doh! You're correct - as usual. My bad. NW holds 20 combination frequencies and nine all-cargo frequencies (three granted in each year of 2004, '05 and '06), all detailed here:

http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/p80/316402.pdf

Well, looks like AA will have to keep an all-cargo division when it takes over NW later this year. Been about 25 years since AA dismantled its dedicated cargo fleet - guess it's gonna be resurrected. B)

 

[Platinum Steve]

Northwest has 21 combination frequencies (all currently used via NRT) and 8 cargo-only frequencies per week to China.

Thanks for the answer to my China frequency question (even if you were responding to someone else). Does anyone know the answer to my question about the number of slots (used, un-used, and total) NWA has at NRT?

Steve

 

[FWAAA]

Thanks for the answer to my China frequency question (even if you were responding to someone else). Does anyone know the answer to my question about the number of slots (used, un-used, and total) NWA has at NRT?

Steve

No problem:

Straight from the 10-K:

Pacific. Northwest has served the Pacific market since 1947 and has one of the world’s largest Pacific route networks. Northwest’s Pacific operations are concentrated at Narita International Airport in Tokyo, where it has 362 permanent weekly takeoffs and landings (“slotsâ€￾) as of December 31, 2004, the most for any non-Japanese carrier. As a result of a 1952 U.S.-Japan bilateral aviation agreement, Northwest has the right to operate unlimited frequencies between any point in the U.S. and Japan as well as extensive “fifth freedomâ€￾ rights. Fifth freedom rights allow Northwest to operate service from any gateway in Japan to points beyond Japan and to carry Japanese originating passengers. Northwest and United Airlines, Inc. (“Unitedâ€￾) are the only U.S. passenger carriers that have fifth freedom rights from Japan. Northwest uses these slots and rights to operate a network linking eight U.S. gateways and twelve Asian destinations via Tokyo. The Asian destinations via Tokyo are Bangkok, Beijing, Busan, Guam, Hong Kong, Manila, Nagoya, Saipan, Seoul, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Singapore. Additionally, Northwest flies nonstop between Detroit and Osaka and Nagoya, and uses its fifth freedom rights to fly beyond Osaka to Taipei and beyond Nagoya to Manila.

http://ir.nwa.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=111021&p...TI1NyZkb2M9MQ==

Don't know how many of the 362 slots are unused.

 

[Platinum Steve]

FWAAA:

Many thanks.



If someone else knows how many of these 362 are unused, I'd love to know.

steve

 

[WorldTraveler]

no NHBB, you don't understand me. I believe DL will successfully restructure and take a leadership position at the profit table of the industry. Just today AA complained about the "benefits" bankruptcy afford its competitors, obviously indicating that AA knows that someone (likely UA or DL) is gaining some significant cost benefits which AA cannot obtain right now.

I don't think any of the four airlines that have been through bankruptcy would have chosen to go through it but since they have, they are going to make the most of what it offers. In DL's case, I think they have had a superior turnaround plan to other airlines before they ever filed and probably could have stayed out of bankruptcy if they had a 6 month headstart on the whole process. I think you'll see numbers this spring and summer which will indicate the strength of DL's turnaround.

NHBB, if you still think that DL is solely domestic then you are simply ignorant of the industry specifically and DL in particuarly. DL is the largest carrier among of all US airlines to Europe and the 2nd largest to S. America. Perhaps it makes you feel better to think that DL is nothing but a penniless, poverty-stricken imp but those who need to know (including DL's competitors) do know that DL is a substantial competitor both domestically and internationally. And on top of its international presence, DL still serves more cities in the US than any other airline.

I do believe that DL will be both a survivor and an acquirer. And I believe they are only interested in one of the two airlines that have substantial Asian presences. One is in bankruptcy and one just emerged. We'll have to see who of the three heads to the top and stays there. Remaining profitable is what it will take to call the shots when it comes to industry restructuring.

Steve,
slots at any airport cannot remained unused for long or they are forfeited. NW (or any carrier) could lease out slots to other carriers for periods of time until NW expect to use them again.

 

[Kev3188]

If anything was ever learned from Pan Am, I can assure you that NW is never selling their Asian routes unless it is an equal merger.....

Interesting quote from the NWA ALPA site regarding yesterday's court testimony:


"Interestingly, later in the day during the PFAA’s cross examination of Michael Becker, Senior VP of Human Resources and Labor Relations, Mr. Becker was asked by PFAA attorney Lee Seham if NWA intended to sell the Detroit hub?
“No,†answered Becker.
“Does Northwest intend to sell its Minneapolis hub?†Seham continued.
“No,†answered Becker.
“Does Northwest intend to sell its Atlantic Division?â€
“No,â€
“Does Northwest intend to sell its Pacific Division?â€
“Not at this time.†Becker replied, glancing toward the management attorneys. "

 

[whaledriver]

“Does Northwest intend to sell its Pacific Division?â€￾
“Not at this time.â€￾ Becker replied, glancing toward the management attorneys. "[/i]

Nice try Becker...stick with your day job.

Just another example of managment 'scare tactics' for the good people of NWA.

They have NO intention of ever selling the pacific...just want to start a little 'Employee BUZZ' talk that may facilitate in breaking the unions. Trust me, it's all about the unkown and the fear that it instills towards the employee groups. NWA mgt. is extremely shrewd in this area and knows how to play the game better than anyone.

 

[Kev3188]

They have NO intention of ever selling the pacific...just want to start a little 'Employee BUZZ' talk that may facilitate in breaking the unions.

Exactly. And what better way to get the "ball rolling," than to play the game in a courtroom full of pilots?

 

[TDR1502C]

Exactly. And what better way to get the "ball rolling," than to play the game in a courtroom full of pilots?

Low shot there Kev. Only folks that get it more wrong than the pilots playing "Post Office" is the press.

As a locked out red tail I'm stuck on the side-lines, but I wouldn't wish a merger on my enemies, having been through two. It would be ironic for Delta to aquire Northwest and have the Northwest leadership team rise to the top.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Well since I started this Topic "58" replies ago, I feel it my responsibility to "keep on, keeping on" .

"IF" UA + CO "cohabitate"
AND
"IF" for whatever reason AA is not Interested in an NW "in play", There would be ENORMOUS pressure on DL to "make it happen " with BIG RED !!

I have to admit that from a HUB standpoint, DL would look pretty good with hubs in ATL/DTW/MSP and a "focus" JFK,
while closing MEM/IND/SLC and CVG.

I DISagree BIG TIME with World Traveler that DL will "make it" as a stand alone.
There is a TON of difference in a AA "stand alone", and a DL "stand alone". ($4.3B Ton of difference) !!!!!!

The "Lynchpin" will be UA, one way, or the other.

NH/BB's