US Airways says costs to rise more than expected

The fourth quarter will be the first in which the company can no longer play a shell game with the numbers and inflate US Airways' financial performance at the expense of America West. All one big happy family now. Funny. I bet those industry-leading margins are about to go away. We will still lead the industry in CASM though.

One of the things I've noticed in the company's traffic releases this past quarter is that while passenger RASM has been improving year-over-year, it's largely due to higher load factors. Or, in other words, yield (fare paid per mile by the passenger) is more or less flat. To illustrate, the numbers for July-September:

July: Load factor up 2.2 points, passenger RASM up "over four percent."
August: Load factor up 5.0 points, passenger RASM up "over five percent."
September: Load factor up 5.4 points, passenger RASM up "over five percent."

It should also be noted that August and September were relatively easy comparisons year-over-year, given that traffic was depressed due to the heavier security and the temporary ban on liquids being carried aboard aircraft.

Now, if you look at CO's numbers:

July: Load factor up 1.0 point, passenger RASM up 3.0 percent
August: Load factor up 2.9 points, passenger RASM up 7.3 percent
September: Load factor up 0.8 points, passenger RASM up 4.5-5.5 percent

We see that Continental's RASM numbers are generally improving even more than their load factors, implying that they are also seeing yield improvements that US is not seeing.

In all fairness to US Airways management, the word "burden" was the choice of the reporter working for Reuters. The company's filing with the SEC only makes mention of "higher profit sharing expense."
 
Does this mean the West will lose even more money in the 4th quarter.

Unfortunately, it won't be broken out on the next report and management can make up any number they want (see PIT losing $40 million a year).