Budding Romance?

[MetalMover]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12265562/1/could-american-help-alaska-face-the-delta-threat.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

[IORFA]

I would love SEA To open back up and add a couple international flights. Then Alaska could drop the Delta code share and remain AA exclusively. One can hope and pray, right!

 

[WorldTraveler]

With all due respect, the chances of AA coming into a market than is smaller than any of AA's competitive Asian gateways and winning over business it doesn't have is slim to none.

Everyone gets fascinated the idea of someone coming in as the white knight in the AS-DL shooting match but the same reasons why AS is doing what it does with DL apply to the same degree or larger with AA.

The same business based reasons why AS and DL are squabbling will be applied in any discussions regarding AA.

AS wants to think that it has some control of the situation but DL has dozens of new flights that are starting from AS' hub SEA in the next few months. Further, the notion that DL couldn't grow at SEA because of a lack of gates has been shown to not be an impediment to DL's growth at SEA.

If AA can offer AS something better, then by all means they should go for it.... but no one including AS has given any indication how AA can do more for AS than they are presently doing.

 

[RJcasualty]

Have we reached Peak Delta yet?

 

[robbedagain]

No lol

 

[WorldTraveler]

Have we reached Peak Delta yet?

what do you expect you will find there?

 

[Kev3188]

Have we reached Peak Delta yet?

 
I think we might be close... I've said it before on here, but sometimes I wonder if we're not flying a little too close to the sun...

 

[RJcasualty]

Peak Delta is the point in time when the maximum rate of revenue is reached, after which the rate is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak Delta 
 

what do you expect you will find there?

 
is based on the observed rise, peak, (sometimes rapid) fall, and depletion of revenues over time. The expansion of new routes, the development of new revenue techniques and the exploitation of American Airlines has resulted in revenue levels which will continue to increase until such time a tipping point is reached whereby a precipitous decline in revenues will occur.

 

[WorldTraveler]

interesting concept but I'm not sure there is any factual basis for that belief. I'd be interested in hearing the facts both of you have that lead you to that conclusion.

DL continues to grow its network including in key industry markets where other carriers have traditionally been strong while also defending if not gaining revenues in its own hub markets.

We'll hear from AA on their earnings this coming week but all the indications are that DL continues to produce superior revenue to the industry while also managing costs as good as or better than others while being well-positioned strategically.

Good companies know when their strategies need to be revised and proactively initiate change specifically to ensure they win.
Specific to this topic, DOT data for the 3rd quarter which has been noted here and which has just been published shows that DL's growth on the west coast and to Asia is doing well and that it is achieving what it needs to do regardless of whether AS supports them or not. Data seems to indicate that DL's concern about AS' lack of feed to DL's int'l flights at SEA is founded, including the statement that DL's SEA hub is 80-90% local.

Thus, DL's need to build its own domestic feed system for SEA is founded and AS now has to live with a secondary hub in its backyard.


What that means for AA remains to be seen but AS isn't going to have the SEA domestic market near as much to itself as it has had in the past. Even based on AS' exec comments, AA is focused first on making its current merger work which means DL's 2014 growth plan on the west coast will play out w/o a change in AA's role.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Clueless in Atlanta for $1000 Alex.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Apparently not.

We are talking about how AA is going to contribute to AS' need for a west coast partner since AS seems to be dissing DL.

Can you help us out with the topic?

 

[eolesen]

 

[robbedagain]

Perhaps wt this is what the game plan is... AA will use CLT as a way around the ole mighty ATL fortress hub for pax to connect in the Southeast etc

 

[700UW]

DL is cutting NRT and HND.

How is that growing?

 

[WorldTraveler]

uh DL just started SEA-HND less than a year ago and, unless you something the rest of us don't, it continues to operate.

SEA-HND is essentially a replacement for SFO-NRT which is ending.

DL is operating SEA and LAX to NRT with 744s in addition to 767s to HND and their average fare in both of those markets is higher than AA or UA. The issue with SFO is that they don't have the feed to fill up the rest of the aircraft that is not local - where DL is competitive with UA.

Since UA is also cutting SEA, it clearly shows that both DL and UA recognize that they can't operate TPAC service from every west coast gateway.

The AS-DL partnership is necessary to ensure that DL can get the connections it needs to support its int'l flights.

Since DL doesn't feel like AS is helping enough with connections, DL is putting in its own domestic flights to the top markets from SEA - other than to UA/AA/US hubs.

robbed,
CLT is already a very competitive east coast hub and the only viable alternate to ATL. AA and DL have hubs in the SE which is an advantage that UA does not have.

AA and DL have multiple hubs or large operations on the east coast in addition which will ensure the east coast remains very competitive.

On the west coast, TPAC flights are a big part of the ability to remain a dominant carrier. DL and UA both have two gateways that have multiple flights.

thanks for focusing on the topic at hand, robbed.