Delta To Issue Major Widebody RFP For 747/767 Replacements

[700UW]

And the program has some problems, the delivery dates have been pushed back because of issues with the test flights and its not even certified yet.

 

[WorldTraveler]

given the lack of anywhere close to the number of orders to make the program viable and the fact the C series pushes into mainline jet territory which A and B will aggressively defend, it isn't inconceivable that Bombardier's transportation division might be defined solely by earthbound products in the future.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

This statement also validates what I have also said regarding use of the 777 the way AA uses it
 
Anderson is pushing for a new 275-seat aircraft that would have a range of 5,000-5,500 naut. mi. He argues that “aircraft that underfly their range are uneconomical. You cannot make a 777 consistently profitable flying only East Coast to Europe. That would be routes 1,000 or 2,000 naut. mi. shorter than what it was designed for

 
Meh. Unimpressed.
 
Somebody better tell fellow SkyTeam member AirFrance that they are making a huge embarrassing blunder, using 777s and A380s on TATL routings. Oh wait, that's JV money, isn't it? And Richard Anderson has nothing to say about that? Hm.

 

[WorldTraveler]

JVs don't include coordinated aircraft selection.
 
I'm sure there are things AF doesn't like about what DL does either.
 
On what they find in common, they coordinate. 

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Still it kinda pokes some giant holes in you and Dick's theory that anything bigger than an A330 has no business plying the North Atlantic.

 

[WorldTraveler]

How DL chooses to operate doesn't mean that others can't.
 
It is worth noting that DL's TATL network had a 25% operating margin based on DOT stats in the latest quarter - similar to its Pacific network.
 
having one out of every four dollars that walks thru the boarding door become profit is a pretty impressive achievement for most businesses.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

And AF's operating margin is...?

Apparently high enough as well.

 

[737823]

JVs don't include coordinated aircraft selection.
 
I'm sure there are things AF doesn't like about what DL does either.
 
On what they find in common, they coordinate.

While I'm not privy to the specifics of the DL-KL-AF-AZ JBV, they certainly do have input in capacity decisions and capacity is set through gauge and frequency. Seriously WT its almost as if you just go around pointing out insignificant and often obviously ways DL manages their operations and then says "oh look this is the industry leading practice". Seriously, plenty of other carriers operate 777s across the Atlantic, it may not the pushing the range of the aircraft but its certainly an appropriate stage length for it to be deployed. And I know you caveat ed this saying "East Coast to Europe", but based on what I see loaded now DL is indeed operating the 777 ATL-LHR and DTW-AMS this summer.

Josh

 

[WorldTraveler]

you clearly don't understand the difference between capacity planning and aircraft acquisition coordination.
 
AF-KL in fact has been losing money... I'm not sure that their fleet decisions have anything to do with it but the reality is that AF/KL is not consistently profitable.  The Euro carriers as a whole aren't doing as well as their US partners right now.  .
 
Remember also that AF and most Euro carriers have ONE major intercontinental hub - LH is one exception. 
 
The US airlines have multiple gateways on both sides of the Atlantic and also fly point to point routes.
 
As for the 777s, DL has often operated them in part because they are essentially "spare" capacity from the way Pacific flights operate.  GIven that DTW is a high 777 Pacific operation and many of the planes would sit on the ground for 18 hours at DTW, DL and NW before has long sent otherwise "Pacific" aircraft to Europe.  The 744 has also done the same thing for the same reason. 
 
Anderson himself made the comment that DL is not going to buy aircraft that have hours more capability than what is needed  and that includes both the Atlantic and Pacific.  Extra range requires extra weight which requires more fuel. 
 
Perhaps part of the reason DL's fuel costs are comparable to its peers despite using older aircraft is that DL uses its aircraft closer to their design limits without incurring operational penalties while other carriers lug around tons of extra unneeded aircraft weight.
 
Again, Anderson just made the statement again as part of the RFP.  DL's aircraft philosophy reflects that philosophy whether other carriers including DL's JV partners believe it or not. 

DL's philosophy about not using too-large of aircraft probably has more roots with NW than DL.  NW passed on the 777 to choose the 330 precisely because the 777 was too heavy for most of NW's Atlantic routes.
 
Remember DL did use the 777 to Europe and flew lots of widebodies within the US. 
 
Also,  NW chose generally the lowest thrust engine options while DL has typically chosen the highest.  DL's philosophy has remained regarding engines.

 

[topDawg]

Looks like DL is going to have a lot of obligations, and you know who slammed AA for their future orders causing cash outlay and debt.
 
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=%2Farticle-xml%2Fawx_03_11_2014_p0-671113.xml
 

ahem, I wouldn't talk to much, the bulk of your new fleet is going to be leased, not owned. The agreement for the 787s vis GECAS means GE will own all of them. 
The Airbus agreement for the CEOs....Airbus will own all of those birds. I believe they are also going to be owning all the NEOs. 
and the bulk of the 737/757/767/777 fleet was sold and leased back in AA's BK. I think the only fleet type they own a large chunk of is the M80s. 
 
Delta on the other hand is buying its new fleet types minus the 717s....but it has been said Delta is going to buy them as the leases with Boeing come to an end. 
 
 

Just what everyone needs, more f'n airbii

 
meh, agreed. 

I find it a bit humorous that Anderson considers the 777X as too experimental, yet the C-Series (which has yet to gain a major customer) is still a viable option.

and the 330NEO too. I think he is just talking. I don't see a 777X future at Delta though. 779 is to big. Maybe a small fleet of 778s to replace the 777LRs. (I do not think airbus, as of now, has a A350 that can completely replace the 777LR, but some talk of an A350-900R would be a replacement) 
 

I mentioned several months ago that this was coming.
 
DL's interest in Airbus aircraft is undoubtedly driven by its complaints that the US subsidizes foreign competitors thru loans for Boeing aircraft by the ExIm bank.  Airbus might have a strong chance of future orders at DL until the issue is addressed.
what? no it doesn't. It will have no impact on this order at all. Just like it had no impact on the 100 + 30 737s Delta ordered. 
No size of the order has been announced but even if it involves 70 or so aircraft over 5 years, that is comparable to what DL is spending on new aircraft today with the 739ER and new 333s which are expected to be paid for by existing cash generation. 
its for around 50 orders, but it will have enough options to completely replace the 767-300ER fleet along with the 747s. also some room for growth. 
DL has previously said it is generating $5B in cash per year, has paid down extra debt, bought new aircraft. bought back stock, and reduced pension liabilities - and still is generating surplus cash.  DL has the ability to spend $2B or more on aircraft without taking on additional debt.    Neither AA or UA has yet demonstrated they are generating enough cash to cover their purchase obligations.
 
Whether DL goes with the 330NEO or not, it is a cheap option for Airbus to develop and something that puts the pressure on Boeing, esp. if the competition is the 787 which is a costly aircraft.  The 320NEO and MAX are both engine derivative aircraft that gain most of their cost savings from the engine.  DL apparently believes the value of new technology wings and fuselage isn't there even for widebodies at current prices. 
how in the world did you get that? the 77X/330NEO isn't an option at this time and unless Delta waits a long time(6months +) the 330NEO wont even be lunched. right now it doesn't have an engine(Rolls is working on a new Trent 700 using T100/TXWB tech). your buying to much into it. 
this is a 787 v 350 order. Both will be ordered, 787-8/9/10 A350-10 will all be in the Delta fleet. 
If the 330NEO is really a viable aircraft, it shoots the theory of needing an expensive rework of the wing which is what is involved in the 777X.  The value of increased performance comes as much from the engine relative to the acquisition cost as a whole new body option.
Hey, John leahy, calm down. It isn't even on the market. hell airbus hasn't even said it is for sure coming. 
 
and to top it off its an NEO......without an engine. 
 
thats a Delta order 3 to 4 years down the road. 
This statement also validates what I have also said regarding use of the 777 the way AA uses it
 
Anderson is pushing for a new 275-seat aircraft that would have a range of 5,000-5,500 naut. mi. He argues that “aircraft that underfly their range are uneconomical. You cannot make a 777 consistently profitable flying only East Coast to Europe. That would be routes 1,000 or 2,000 naut. mi. shorter than what it was designed for
he can want all he wants but he isn't going to get one. Even a 330NEO will have 6,500-7,000nm. Hell, even his beloved 767-300ER has better range than that. 
 
He can and will have the option of lowering the MTOW and engine numbers on the 788 to make it into that plane though. 
 
DL's interest in the geared turbofan goes back decades. Bombardier's future as a planemaker will live or die based on its ability to produce a new generation aircraft.   The CR9 is just not a long-term competitive aircraft and they know it. But it is not viable at current prices.  DL is a tough negotiator and prices.

and for the record WT, the Airbus offering can't replace the 763. They are all simply way to large. If they went with a 350/330 replacement it would cost Delta a ton of jobs. (the translantic network would become half the size it is in frequency)  
Just to add, one thing he is not saying, but is thinking. Delta could, and most likely will be able to take its wide body fleet with 4 types and 6 engine types down to 2 types and 2 engine types. Over time I fully expect Delta to shift to a A350/B787 fleet. all Trent powered. 
 

Is there any chance at all that DL will consider 747-8i as a possible replacement for the 747-400? 

no. Twins are the future of Delta. 
Also I think your going to see Delta shift to more Rolls engines, I expect 50+ each Trent 1000s and TrentXWB engines in the fleet. 
 

JVs don't include coordinated aircraft selection.
 
I'm sure there are things AF doesn't like about what DL does either.
 
On what they find in common, they coordinate. 

Delta doesn't tell AF not to buy A380s, but they do have a say so in where AF sends them. So if DL/AF/KL/AZ say only LAX/JFK-CDG can work on the 380 then we aren't going to see AF order 50 A380s. So in a round about way....they do have a say so. 
 

 
Meh. Unimpressed.
 
Somebody better tell fellow SkyTeam member AirFrance that they are making a huge embarrassing blunder, using 777s and A380s on TATL routings. Oh wait, that's JV money, isn't it? And Richard Anderson has nothing to say about that? Hm.

It has shown Anderson what he has been saying all along, the 380 is a money pit. 

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Doesn't AF have A330s they could be flying across the pond if they wanted to?

 

[topDawg]

Doesn't AF have A330s they could be flying across the pond if they wanted to?

They do, 
and they do. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

AF buys what they want and deploys them as they wish. DL can say that certain routes won't work on a given aircraft. btw I am in CDG having just arrived on DL and connecting to an AF longhaul flt that is part of the JV and ops on a big twin that DL doesn't fly
 
The JV works.... is it everything either side wants? no... because it is a partnership of two companies.  But DL and AF/KL work well together.

DL could pass on the 330NEO ...maybe Anderson just wants a bettter deal.

 

[metopower]

Question for Dawg.... Why the rools over the GE? I personally love the GE and dislike the rools. It must be in the costs .

 

[topDawg]

AF buys what they want and deploys them as they wish. DL can say that certain routes won't work on a given aircraft. btw I am in CDG having just arrived on DL and connecting to an AF longhaul flt that is part of the JV and ops on a big twin that DL doesn't fly
 
The JV works.... is it everything either side wants? no... because it is a partnership of two companies.  But DL and AF/KL work well together.

DL could pass on the 330NEO ...maybe Anderson just wants a bettter deal.

do you remember Anderson saying he would order the 787-10 yesterday if Boeing would offer.......yet no 787-10 order?
He wants competition.
 
having said that, if/when AB offers a 330NEO i fully expect Delta to order. The issue now is it is highly unlikely one is offered by the time the RFP becomes an order. (unless they sit on it for a year/2 years).
 
If there was an engine for the NEO then I would say Delta may launch it, but Rolls has already said they will offer a newish engine....I bet GE will also. (I don't see Pratt offering anything)  
 

Question for Dawg.... Why the rools over the GE? I personally love the GE and dislike the rools. It must be in the costs .

Why Rolls? Two reasons, 
1) NWA's order was with the T1000. Had Delta anted GE they would have made the change post merger. Even though the order is pushed way back they are still making payments to RR and Boeing. 
2) because AA/UA both have gone GE, I am betting Rolls is going to do anything and everything to keep Delta on the Trent 1000. They want a Trent carrier in the US. I simply don't see GE making a better offer at this point because they already have 100-200 engines in the fleet with AA and UA. (or will) 
 
As for the TrentXWB, it is the only choice for the 350XWB. 
 
Also, I can see it being a big chance for Delta TechOps to get into the MRO game for those to engines. (assuming they build a new test cell. Probably in Mexico) 
 
Now, it is very possible Delta goes both on the 787 fleet, it will be a large fleet, IMO 100 airframes or more. So a mix fleet of GEnx and T1000s would not be shocking at all. (the current 767 fleet is a mix of CF6s and PW4000s) 
 
 
 
Also watch out for the 777-300ER in this order. Delta is going to look at it also. I think they are betting on Boeing offering 20-30 frames cheap t keep the line moving before the 777X gets rolling. (I still don't see it, the GE90 still has a lot of bugs and is a very costly engine to overhaul)