DL starting LAX-SAT

[topDawg]

interesting about DL's comment about 150-160 flights per day being the sweet spot. DL is right now at 135-140 flts/day so there is growth based on that number.

a couple other numbers are worth noting....

AA/US right now is at about 175 flts/days with 35% RJ of some type. AA's number of flights will grow with the new gates but it is hard to know what their gauge will do.

UA is at about the same number of flights but has the smallest aircraft gauge among the big 3.
at last check UA was closer to 200-210 flights a day. 
DL's average aircraft size at LAX is almost 40 seats larger than UA's and 15 seats larger than AA's.

DL is about 45% RJ (all large RJ) as UA but with larger gauge.

the difference between the number of seats per carrier is not going to be a whole lot different although it is likely that AA will end up with more overall seats as they upgauge to large RJs and also take over the additional terminal 6 gates.
remember, AA is getting four T6 gates but is losing at least two T3 gates(and I fully expect them to move out of T3 completely). So its really only a net gain of 1 maybe two gates. 
Also AA was pretty tight at T4, I don't think you'll see much growth for AA out of those gates. 
 
the TBIT gates will probably lead to more international flying. (PEK, HKG, ICN) but I expect UA and possibly DL to react. (making those markets just as big of a money pit at TYO and PVG) 
However, DL's opportunity to grow will come as much from upgauging large RJs to mainline as well as adding another dozen or so new flights.

also, DL has the highest percentage of local traffic per operation at LAX compared to AA and UA. DL is focusing its LAX operation on the local market instead of trying to use it as a hub other than to support international flights.

The overall size of the big 3 in the local market is not going to be significantly different and, given that DL and UA both have hubs north of LAX, it also means the majority of their focus can be on the local market.

And yes DL is keeping 752s longer and they are also gaining seats which makes them the largest domestic aircraft in the US carrier domestic fleet other than the 753s which DL and UA both operate including frequently to/from LAX and the occasional widebodies that are used by other carriers as well as DL's domestic 763s.

 
what I mean is the 757 fleet can be flexed. If they want to they have 10-20 frames that they are looking at as flex airplanes. (ie they might not get parked) 
 
Also about half of the 320 fleet is in question. Of course it is a cycle limit question with them, so not sure what Delta is going to do there. 

I do not think DL will start BWI PHX anytime soon  but stranger things have happened before.   not sure how well WN does on the BWI PHX run but I do know our PHX runs even during the flex flight periods do real well

I mean LAX-BWI. 

 

[robbedagain]

dawg  If DL started BWI-LAX   how bad would it hurt UA  I do know UA has 1 or 2 a day to LAX   Think they use an Airbus and may be 1 757    and if DL start an LA run  do you think they would use a 75  or an 319/20

 

[topDawg]

dawg  If DL started BWI-LAX   how bad would it hurt UA  I do know UA has 1 or 2 a day to LAX   Think they use an Airbus and may be 1 757    and if DL start an LA run  do you think they would use a 75  or an 319/20

I don't think it would honestly. The market only has 3 flights a day, 1x UA 2x WN. I personally think 1x more flight wouldn't hurt anyone. 
Now if AA were to also jump on it, I expect United would dump it. 
 
Its 1x daily with a 319. 
 
and If Delta started it I would probably be a red-eye on a 738. Maybe a 320. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

dawg,
UA is at 177 flts/day on average this week, down from just over 200 in July.

Since UA says they are going to do more tailoring of their schedule to peaks and valleys in demand, they likely will pull down and add flights as they are doing between July and September 2014.

Yes, I believe DL will use some of the 757s for flex capacity and part of it will be to offset whatever happens with pilot availability esp. at the DCI carriers.

I thought Airbus approved a life extension for the 320s, dawg. Not true?

I expect DL would start a DC airport to LAX before BWI - obviously IAD would most likely have to be it.

the major markets that DL needs to serve from LAX and SEA are DEN, ORD, IAH, and DC. Then there are markets like MKE and others that have a strong DL presence and might support nonstop service beyond SLC but with limited space, they aren't likely. LAX-MIA needs more flights for DL to be credible in that market but that likely isn't going to happen until DL starts MIA to Latin America flights.

remember that DL started LGA-DFW with just a few flights/day and is up to 8 (IIRC) per day. all are on Ejets and since the route is likely beyond the range of the 717, the next step up in capacity is the 319.

starting small has worked well for DL many times in the past.

 

[topDawg]

dawg,
UA is at 177 flts/day on average this week, down from just over 200 in July.

Since UA says they are going to do more tailoring of their schedule to peaks and valleys in demand, they likely will pull down and add flights as they are doing between July and September 2014.

Yes, I believe DL will use some of the 757s for flex capacity and part of it will be to offset whatever happens with pilot availability esp. at the DCI carriers.
a reason why i think Delta has yet to place the 30 76-seaters they have left. From what I hear 9E is having major staffing problems. 
I thought Airbus approved a life extension for the 320s, dawg. Not true?
I think they did, but I don't know if Delta will roll with it. Few issues on the 320 fleet are they have the CFM56-5A engines, not the 5B engines coming on the 321s. that has limited the weights on them (a key reason why they aren't getting AVOD). I also don't know what it takes to get to that point. From what I heard it takes a hell of an overhaul with a bunch of service bullets to get the approved cycles (20K I think)
Delta may very well move ahead with replacing them with 321/739s. We will see what happens when the mods start.  
I expect DL would start a DC airport to LAX before BWI - obviously IAD would most likely have to be it.
agreed. 2x daily LAX-IAD would, IMO, come first. 
the major markets that DL needs to serve from LAX and SEA are DEN, ORD, IAH, and DC. Then there are markets like MKE and others that have a strong DL presence and might support nonstop service beyond SLC but with limited space, they aren't likely. LAX-MIA needs more flights for DL to be credible in that market but that likely isn't going to happen until DL starts MIA to Latin America flights.
A morning dept. on LAX-MIA is needed for sure. 
MKE is a market that, I don't think Delta brings back from LAX. Maybe 1 daily like they had before, but i think even markets like TUS/ABQ/RNO would add more network value than MKE. A stop in SLC is only 100 or so miles out of the way. 
remember that DL started LGA-DFW with just a few flights/day and is up to 8 (IIRC) per day. all are on Ejets and since the route is likely beyond the range of the 717, the next step up in capacity is the 319.

starting small has worked well for DL many times in the past.

 

[WorldTraveler]

thanks, Dawg.

Do the 319s have the same engine and, if so, is the smaller airframe not limiting on range for those aircraft?

also, is it possible to upgrade the engines?

I agree that the airframe upgrade might not be worth it but if it costs less than a new aircraft then it just might be. Anderson believes there is a huge bubble coming in narrowbody prices so the idea might be just to extend the life long enough until that happens.

when you consider that DL still has 100 plus MD80s that DL can economically deploy on its eastern US system, then anything even current generation will be quite a step up in fuel consumption.

 

[topDawg]

thanks, Dawg.

Do the 319s have the same engine and, if so, is the smaller airframe not limiting on range for those aircraft?
The 320s have the A1 i believe. The 319s have the A5 (23K motor) however the 319, like the 73G has so much extra range you don't need the trust unless your doing hot/high opps. 
 
The 320 is like the 738, it needs every bit of thrust it can get. 
also, is it possible to upgrade the engines?
I think the A model has a higher thrust plug for the 320, 25 maybe 26K 
 
but going from a CFM56-5A to a CFM56-5B4(27K motor) would be a true engine change. The -5B has a different fan(and fan case) and an extra lower compressor stage. I don't now if they can just put a -5B on a 320 (ie just do an engine change) or if the pylon needs to be changed/modified. I am sure it would be easier to go to a -5B vs going to a V2500 but I can't say just how much easier it is.
 
It is not just a simple thrust plug change however. It would require a new engine.  
I agree that the airframe upgrade might not be worth it but if it costs less than a new aircraft then it just might be. Anderson believes there is a huge bubble coming in narrowbody prices so the idea might be just to extend the life long enough until that happens.
very true. For now all i can say is no 320 tail is in the WFU plan. Just 757s and domestic 767s. (and the 4 744s)
when you consider that DL still has 100 plus MD80s that DL can economically deploy on its eastern US system, then anything even current generation will be quite a step up in fuel consumption.