DOT Approves AS/AA LAX-MEX Route Swap

[MAH4546]

DOT has approved the route swap of the LAX-MEX authority between AA and AS, despite Delta's un-grounded attempt to derail it. Mexican government approval is not required for the transfer, and AA can now proceed to sell tickets on the route with it's own metal once the response period is over. It might be tough to go for the original June switch date, so I think AA/AS will look at the July schedule change date (July 11th, I think). 

 

[WorldTraveler]

thanks for the update

DL will still start its own LAX-MEX flights Jan 1, JV or not.

AA gets a 5-6 mnth headstart.

so, AA won the case to transfer the LAX-MEX route that gets them 5-6 months headstart on DL while DL keeps its SEA-HND route which AA tried to move to AA and LAX.

 

[eolesen]

<sarcasm> Has Mexico revoked the bi-lateral yet?.... </sarcasm>

 

[commavia]

I smell a lawsuit!

 

[WorldTraveler]

7 months.

that's all AA gets.

 

[commavia]

That, and another building block in continuing to expand its operation, and market leadership, at LAX.  But who's counting ...

 

[FWAAA]

Can only wonder what the all-powerful Atlanta-based airline will do now to punish AA for its transgressions? Perhaps it will begin flying a dozen times a day between LAX and ORD? Maybe add 10 daily flights between LAX and MIA? One thing is certain: AA is walking thru the Valley of Death, and there's nothing AA can do except pray that all-mighty Delta doesn't drive AA out of business.

 

[WorldTraveler]

That, and another building block in continuing to expand its operation, and market leadership, at LAX.  But who's counting ...

uh.... if a 6 month headstart in a market that AA and DL were both going to fly anyway makes market leadership, then it is no surprise that DL is really winning.

Australia and now one more flight to Asia - PVG this time - seems like it has a whole lot more potential to generate revenue.

we're all still waiting to see how badly AA's share in the ATL-DFW/DAL will fall but I suspect that BOS-MIA can't be too far down the list along with some additional LAX-MIA flights regardless of what happens with MIA to Latin America.

and on the subject of the JV with AM and DL, Richard Anderson was pretty clear that the DOT has indeed done before what was necessary to form the that AM and DL expected

six months headstart.

 

[FWAAA]

Delta's own words (from its application for the immunized joint venture):
 

American and United are the largest U.S.-Mexico competitors with 25 and 22 percent U.S.-Mexico market shares, respectively. Exhibit JA-1. Both of the leading U.S. carriers have broad network coverage into Mexico from their Texas hubs. Aeromexico and Delta rank as a distant 3rd and 4th place competitors with 14 and 11 percent market shares, respectively.3 Id.

Neither Delta nor Aeromexico individually has the ability to offer a single carrier network of comparable scope and scale to compete with United and American.

However, without a partner and local sales presence in Mexico, broad-based expansion south of the border is not feasible. Mexico point of sale expertise is critical, and, apart from Mexico City and Mexican beach markets, Delta is without this capability.

Apart from Mexico City and Cancun, Delta suffers from a weak sales presence and recognition in Mexico. Delta also lacks expertise in dealing with unique distribution channels in Mexico which rely heavily on relationships with local travel agents and other retail ticketing outlets.

Despite Delta's self-professed weaknesses in the USA-Mexico market, I'm certain that DL will initiate substantial new service to Mexico on January 1 and will easily catch up from its "distant" fourth place share of 11% of the market to challenge the largest carrier in the market (with a 25% market share).

 

[WorldTraveler]

except that AA isn't the number 1 carrier in the LAX-Mexico market but is in fact number 4 based on DOT O&D data behind AS, UA, and yes, DL.

and based on capacity between LAX and all destinations in Mexico this month, AA is 6th in the market with an average of 320 seats/day each way.

given that DL has on average 840 seats/day between LAX and Mexico, AA won't displace DL even with just 2 flights/day.

And given that DL will add at least those two flights itself, not just swap AS' flights (even if doubling them), AA gets no advantage other than a headstart.

 

[MAH4546]

Delta is too busy continually transferring it's LAX-Mexico flying to regional partners (filed another application this week to transfer more). A lot of that flying isn't working whatsoever. 
 
American will offer 883 seats/day average each way effective July 2015, and all exclusively on mainline, making it the largest U.S. carrier between Mexico and LAX based on capacity.
 
Delta has been displaced. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, and I noticed that AA is sending E175s to the Caribbean - but we shouldn't count that should we?

plz detail the schedule that you are using for your justification of 883 seats/day.

Strangely those numbers can't be seen in AA's published schedules even if you add 2 737-800s per day to MEX.

and again, DL will be adding at least two of its own flights in LAX-MEX come January.

given that AA isn't the largest carrier from LAX to Latin America, Mexico, Asia/Pacific, or Europe right now based on LOCAL O&D traffic.

what AA is from LAX RIGHT NOW is the largest domestic carrier.

 

[commavia]

Largest domestic carrier at LAX and ... largest carrier at LAX overall.  It's hysterical that "some" still can't accept that reality.
 
Either way, MEX is yet another important O&D market from LAX in which AA will now compete, and, again, yet another building block to continuing to build its ("leading") presence in the LAX market.
 
But by all means let's make this about AA using E175s to the Caribbean (in several markets, notably, where competitors including Delta have precisely zero presence) and ATL-DFW market share.
 
Classic.

 

[jcw]

Wow it seems like the DOT is really doing a nice job of taking DL's input and acting on it

 

[MAH4546]

yes, and I noticed that AA is sending E175s to the Caribbean - but we shouldn't count that should we?

plz detail the schedule that you are using for your justification of 883 seats/day.

Strangely those numbers can't be seen in AA's published schedules even if you add 2 737-800s per day to MEX.

and again, DL will be adding at least two of its own flights in LAX-MEX come January.

given that AA isn't the largest carrier from LAX to Latin America, Mexico, Asia/Pacific, or Europe right now based on LOCAL O&D traffic.

what AA is from LAX RIGHT NOW is the largest domestic carrier.

 
 
You are right, American is sending ERJ-175s to the Caribbean. To Fort de France, 6 weekly ERJ-175s replaces 2 weekly 737-800s. To Pointe Pitre, one weekly ERJ-175 compliments the existing one weekly 737-800. In other every case, the ERJ-175 replaces the ERJ-145 (La Romana, Bahamas flying). AA is also adding mainline to Miami-Nassau. No mainline flying is being discontinued except for MIA-FDF, but AA is tripling frequency in that market. 
 
AA this summer will offer 19w LAXSJD (160/flight), 14w LAXMEX (160/flight) and 7w LAXGDL (128/flight), more capacity than any U.S. carrier between Los Angeles and Mexico. That is 6,176/week, or an average of ~883.