DOT Approves AS/AA LAX-MEX Route Swap
- Thread starter MAH4546
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FWAAA said:
Is it a guarantee that the new U.S.-Mexico bilateral will go into effect in January? I thought Delta and Aeromexico were appealing to the U.N. Human Rights Commission over the DoT putting their ATI application on ice, and failing that, threatening that Mexico would not ratify the bilateral?
WorldTraveler
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it likely just means that the DOT won't extend authority into an law that no longer exists. If for some reason, the Mexican government backs out of the US treaty - which IS ALWAYS a possibility - then the DOT has already said that the route transfer would be off after a year.
and all of the histrionics from commavia are simply an inability to admit that all of the visions and dreams of AA's int'l presence in LAX are just that - detached from current reality and can only happen if DL and UA decide to roll over and die... something that seems about as likely to happen as snow at AA's headquarters on July 4.
for right now, AA is the largest DOMESTIC airline at LAX but the 3rd largest int'l airline based on O&D passengers boarded in the most recent DOT quarter as well as total int'l seats offered based on summer 2015 schedules.
and all of the histrionics from commavia are simply an inability to admit that all of the visions and dreams of AA's int'l presence in LAX are just that - detached from current reality and can only happen if DL and UA decide to roll over and die... something that seems about as likely to happen as snow at AA's headquarters on July 4.
for right now, AA is the largest DOMESTIC airline at LAX but the 3rd largest int'l airline based on O&D passengers boarded in the most recent DOT quarter as well as total int'l seats offered based on summer 2015 schedules.
AA's international operations at LAX - by this summer constituting nearly 20 peak-day departures to nearly a dozen cities in Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, Central America and Brazil (including two to MEX!) - is "visions and dreams."
Like with so many things - the level of vitriol and detachment from reality is directly proportional to the level of fear. How typical, and hysterical.
Like with so many things - the level of vitriol and detachment from reality is directly proportional to the level of fear. How typical, and hysterical.
WorldTraveler
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Even with AA's int'l growth from LAX, by this summer, AA will pass UA as the 2nd largest int'l US carrier and 3rd largest among all carriers based on seats (AC is larger than AA and UA), AA's overall number of seats even with MEX-LAX will leave them 22% smaller than DL in terms of number of seats.
given that AA's lead will be cut when DL starts its own LAX-MEX service, it is two steps forward for AA and 3 for the competition - since DL continues to grow its int'l capacity at LAX faster than any other carrier.
Good for AA - but no cigar. not this year
given that AA's lead will be cut when DL starts its own LAX-MEX service, it is two steps forward for AA and 3 for the competition - since DL continues to grow its int'l capacity at LAX faster than any other carrier.
Good for AA - but no cigar. not this year
Once again: context is key. I realize that in Delta fantasyland this is all a matter of "2 steps forward and 3 steps back" for AA - it always is - but back here in reality I'm fairly confident that AA is pretty happy with its competitive position at LAX regardless of whether Delta does or doesn't add its own LAX-MEX service whenever it is or isn't allowed to. (And by the way, I thought Delta and Aeromexico were going to make sure that the new bilateral, which would theoretically permit Delta to come in and dominate the LAX-MEX market, doesn't get ratified and come into force unless they get their ATI?)
Anyway, good for Delta that they'll still have the lead in carrying people to Mexican beach resorts. In the meantime, schedule presence remains far more important than seats, and AA by this summer will offer a comprehensive network out of LAX to many of the largest and most important international (and domestic) O&D markets, particular for business and/or premium leisure passengers, at the airport - like LON, TYO, SHA, SAO, MEX, YVR, YYZ and SJD. It is notable that AA's presence will be larger than Delta's (or United's) on multiple of those routes (including several where Delta and/or United are entirely absent). So frankly, I think AA is quite happy to take "2 steps forward" with the premium traffic and network/corporate revenue contribution of MEX, YYZ, SAO, etc. - for example - versus "3 steps back" by missing out on Saturday flights to MTY or ZIH (and I agree with others that AA is likely to continue to expands its LAX-Mexico/Latin America presence, anyway).
Ah, reality.
Anyway, good for Delta that they'll still have the lead in carrying people to Mexican beach resorts. In the meantime, schedule presence remains far more important than seats, and AA by this summer will offer a comprehensive network out of LAX to many of the largest and most important international (and domestic) O&D markets, particular for business and/or premium leisure passengers, at the airport - like LON, TYO, SHA, SAO, MEX, YVR, YYZ and SJD. It is notable that AA's presence will be larger than Delta's (or United's) on multiple of those routes (including several where Delta and/or United are entirely absent). So frankly, I think AA is quite happy to take "2 steps forward" with the premium traffic and network/corporate revenue contribution of MEX, YYZ, SAO, etc. - for example - versus "3 steps back" by missing out on Saturday flights to MTY or ZIH (and I agree with others that AA is likely to continue to expands its LAX-Mexico/Latin America presence, anyway).
Ah, reality.
WorldTraveler
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first, I said 2 steps forward for AA at LAX and 3 steps forward for the completion.
Second, I am not arguing whether AA is comfortable with its position at LAX.
I am saying that if AA's size at LAX is a matter than you want to boats about, then it is absolutely fair to note that AA's size at LAX is driven by its domestic network while DL is the largest carrier based on seats and ASMs to both Latin America and Asia even after adding in AA's LAX-MEX flights.
and based on average fares in the local market, UA and DL carry more premium traffic than AA.
those are the realities.
Second, I am not arguing whether AA is comfortable with its position at LAX.
I am saying that if AA's size at LAX is a matter than you want to boats about, then it is absolutely fair to note that AA's size at LAX is driven by its domestic network while DL is the largest carrier based on seats and ASMs to both Latin America and Asia even after adding in AA's LAX-MEX flights.
and based on average fares in the local market, UA and DL carry more premium traffic than AA.
those are the realities.
jimntx
Veteran
2 points:
1. Completion of what?
2. But it's okay for you to boats about Delta at LAX? Is that it? (What is boatsing?)
You need to slow down. You're so anxious to put down AA your fingers are suffering from keyboard dyslexia.
1. Completion of what?
2. But it's okay for you to boats about Delta at LAX? Is that it? (What is boatsing?)
You need to slow down. You're so anxious to put down AA your fingers are suffering from keyboard dyslexia.
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And DL is cutting flights to Mexican beach destinations, CZM, GUA, SJD, PVR, and some non-Mexico, CCS.
LAX reductions: MTY, MZT, ZIH, ZLO some non-mexican cuts SAL.
And DL is also reducing SLC to Mexico flights, and JFK to Central America flights and Caribbean flights also.
And DTW is also reducing Caribbean flights also and CUN.
LAX reductions: MTY, MZT, ZIH, ZLO some non-mexican cuts SAL.
And DL is also reducing SLC to Mexico flights, and JFK to Central America flights and Caribbean flights also.
And DTW is also reducing Caribbean flights also and CUN.
Kev3188
Veteran
Service to CUN is usually pared back after spring break...
eolesen
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Historically, FDF and PTP were Eagle service. It's been a while since I paid attention to the Caribbean, but with the drawdown of 50 seaters, it looks like they got upgraded to mainline temporarily vs. cutting them out until the E-jets were able to step in.MAH4546 said:
Maybe I'll take a look at the OAG historical this week. Or maybe not. It's a moot point, since those are destinations that have traditionally only had meaningful service from AF (when they had the regional hub in MIA) and AA.
eolesen
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As for LAX.... you can bet that someone around here will continue to quote past-date DOT statistics to try and determine who is really the largest, rather than look at ASM's and forward. But, that's borrowed time. Soon enough, the DOT's reporting will catch up with... reality.
WorldTraveler
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I will quote whatever current DOT stats are available. 4th quarter 2014 stats will be released soon... they will be the most recent available.
and schedule data is available for analysis as soon as it is loaded in the GDSs.
and since 693 hasn't figured it out, schedules are compared on a year over basis because no one really cares about how much has been cut from August to September each year but they do care about how much is cut or added in Sept. 2015 compared to 2014.
and you missed the point that even with the most current schedules AND adding in the seats that AA will offer with two LAX-MEX flights, AA's int'l capacity from LAX will still put it in the #3 position at LAX, behind DL and AC but finally moving ahead of UA.
and schedule data is available for analysis as soon as it is loaded in the GDSs.
and since 693 hasn't figured it out, schedules are compared on a year over basis because no one really cares about how much has been cut from August to September each year but they do care about how much is cut or added in Sept. 2015 compared to 2014.
and you missed the point that even with the most current schedules AND adding in the seats that AA will offer with two LAX-MEX flights, AA's int'l capacity from LAX will still put it in the #3 position at LAX, behind DL and AC but finally moving ahead of UA.
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