Equity

[AANOTOK]

Wrong
 
IIRC when we got our 433 shares in 2003 the stock would have had to go to over $300/share for us to break even, that was based on being restored in 2008, now we wont even be fully restored in 2018. So even if it adds up to $30,000, that's less than 10% of what we gave up. Wont even buy the Retiree Medical we lost. Yes I'll take the money, why wouldn't I? But I'm still missing at least 9 bucks for every buck I get.

Thanks for putting that rumor to bed, Bob.

 

[Mach85ER]

 We already know that the APA pilots will get 13.5% of that, or about 68 million shares.   At today's price, the APA will split about $1.5 billion.  

 
FWAAA,
 
     Your info is a little inaccurate. APA members voted on what they thought was a deal to receive 13.5% of the equity in the AA share of the new "AA".
 
What happened is some high level BS foisted on the membership by APA leadership, their advisors, the UCC or all of the above.
 
We are getting 13.5% of the shares up to a value that satifies our BK settlement number agreed to in court. I think that number is $1.04 Billion. Here is why more than a few are p###ed. If the stock stays at $16/share or above for 120 days after the closing next week, we get our $1.04 Billion paid out in shares, with 50% next week, and the remainder over the next 120 days in one to three payments. If it averages below $16/share during the period, our equity claim is reduced. If the stock increases, our share grants are reduced so as to not exceed $1.04 Billion in total.
 
Most everybody including me thought it was 13.5% in the new AA. The risk was there, but the upside potential seemed to balance the out. Then we find out we eat the downside risk and get zero upside. What a deal.
 
Highest equity number is for guys with most years of service and maybe 10+ years to retirement. Share value is around $145,000. Lowest is guys just recalled and those with a couple of years of less to 65 retirement based on their limited time to work under new contract and nearly full frozen A-Fund annuity.

 

[AANOTOK]

Maybe that's what the rumor was trying to say about ours as well, only that we have the $15 threshold...and I just didn't decipher what they were telling me. We shall soon see...

 

[FWAAA]

 
FWAAA,
 
     Your info is a little inaccurate. APA members voted on what they thought was a deal to receive 13.5% of the equity in the AA share of the new "AA".
 
What happened is some high level BS foisted on the membership by APA leadership, their advisors, the UCC or all of the above.

I'm sorry to hear.   If that's how it goes down, then you guys were defrauded.   I'd be extremely pissed.   
 

Maybe that's what the rumor was trying to say about ours as well, only that we have the $15 threshold...and I just didn't decipher what they were telling me. We shall soon see...

I can understand capping the non-employee unsecured creditors, as they were owed specific dollar amounts, and the increase in the bankruptcy estate value shouldn't enrich them.    But to cap the value of the employee claims?   That's beyond the pale.   I thought you guys were being offered a fixed percentage of whatever AA's 72% turned out to be worth, so that you would share in the upside.    

 

[Bob Owens]

Nothing wrong with under promising and over delivering!  

Would be a first!

 

[Bob Owens]

I'm sorry to hear.   If that's how it goes down, then you guys were defrauded.   I'd be extremely pissed.   
 
I can understand capping the non-employee unsecured creditors, as they were owed specific dollar amounts, and the increase in the bankruptcy estate value shouldn't enrich them.    But to cap the value of the employee claims?   That's beyond the pale.   I thought you guys were being offered a fixed percentage of whatever AA's 72% turned out to be worth, so that you would share in the upside.    

My understanding, could be wrong, but the dollar amount of the 4.8% will be fixed at the date they are first issued, and we will get no more than that. So if its $20/share and it comes out to 1000 shares its $20,000.  1000 shares is the max we could end up with or $20,000 is the max cash value we can get, we get the lower of the two. So if the stock doubles in price in that 120 days the 50% is turned into 100% and we are done, (we would end up with just 2.4% instead of 4.8%) but if the stock tanks we will not get more than 1000 shares. So in other words we are locked out of the upside, at least during that 120 day period, but exposed to the downside during that 120 day period. That's my understanding, but to be honest I have not examined it that closely.

 

[AANOTOK]

So what does "AAL" open at Monday?

 

[FWAAA]

My prediction is that it opens at $23/sh.    
 
LCC closed at $22.55/sh and rose to $22.75/sh in after hours trading yesterday, so $23/sh sounds like a safe bet.   

 

[AANOTOK]

I figure $22.00/sh

 

[AANOTOK]

Bump...hell, all the other threads seem to be more about union bashing, arguing, personal shots etc...

 

[NYer]

I beg to differ.    While it's true that we don't know precisely how many shares each employee will get, there are a lot of numbers to which we already have the answer.   
 
Currently, there are about 197 million shares of LCC (US Airways) outstanding.   Each of those shares will be cancelled and replaced by one share of new AA on Monday.   LCC closed today at about $22.55/sh
 
New AA will issue about 507 million additional shares of new stock.   We already know that the APA pilots will get 13.5% of that, or about 68 million shares.   At today's price, the APA will split about $1.5 billion.    We know that the APFA will get 3% of that new stock, or about 15.2 million shares, worth an estimated $343 million.    We know that the TWU will get 4,8% of that new stock, or about 24.3 million shares, worth an estimated $550 million.   The agents, support staff and management (lower-level management that isn't getting big chunks of stock) will split 2.3% of that new stock, worth probably about $263 million or so.
 
The unsecured creditors will get much of the remaining stock, and, last, the current shareholders of old AAMRQ will divide up what's left.    Some analysts are estimating that the holders of old AAMRQ might end up getting $5 billion or so worth of new AA stock.   How much they ultimately get is really up in the air.    

 
 
All that is true if the price of the shares remain constant To where those estimates we made. The deal which the Preferred Stockholders have (old AMR) entails that they receive more shares as the price of each share goes up and less shares are the price of the shares goes down. In other words, the Creditors stand to receive a set value paid to them with an unknown amount of shares due to the changing price of those shares over a 120 day period.

 

[NYer]

And when their little road show was making it's rounds, the TWU was using $14 a share as a tool and was able to narrow it down fairly close. Now that it will be closer to $23 a share (last 60 day average), I don't see what has changed in the formula other than an increase. I have heard a rumor (right or wrong) that our shares were capped at $15 and any additional equity would be given to the current stockholders to divide.

 
There is no cap on the value of each share, but there is an adjustment of how many shares we receive depending on the share price going up or going down. If it goes up to certain levels, we get less...if it goes down to certain levels, we get more.

 

[1AA]

 
There is no cap on the value of each share, but there is an adjustment of how many shares we receive depending on the share price going up or going down. If it goes up to certain levels, we get less...if it goes down to certain levels, we get more.

Yup that is the way I read it. That second set of shares or equity 120 days later can mean we lose money versus getting it all at once and hoping to make money. But the TWU in their wisdom of representing the members in their best interest made sure we get screwed again. I will check my account Monday morning or after the market closes and see how much I have received. Not expecting much of anything the TWU negotiated for us.

 

[FWAAA]

My prediction is that it opens at $23/sh.    
 
LCC closed at $22.55/sh and rose to $22.75/sh in after hours trading yesterday, so $23/sh sounds like a safe bet.   

 
 

I figure $22.00/sh

We were both low - AAL opened at $23.95/sh today.   

 

[AANOTOK]

So basically, until 120 days, we cannot make anymore money. Stock goes up, we may get nothing. Stock goes down, we may get more shares. Then, after the 120 days, whatever we have in our account (shares) you can start making or losing money, correct? I'm really not a Dufus, I'm just so confused with this formula!!