Malaysia Airlines B777-200 Missing

[Knotbuyinit]

Well then, case closed. Thanks for solving it for us.

And of course actual 777 pilots, ATC, FAA Check Airman, and mechanics who frequent that forum know nothing about causal factors in aviation accidents.

Like I said, there are idiots on all forums...and in newsroom editing:

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CNN and the "Bowing" 777. Sigh.

Now now Glen, lets not be an arrogant ass about it. I said nothing about having the case solved. I merely stated that you were (and still are) incorrect as to where to seek accurate and reliable information regarding this accident. Contrary to your belief, wearing a gold badge doesn't necessarily make one a professional nor am I in the least bit intimidated by it. Also note that I'm not the one suggesting people go to a blog or website that have "idiots" embedded in them, you are!

You see, on the internet you can be anybody you want to be, including but not limited to actual 777 pilots, ATC, FAA Check Airman, and AMTs. I simply prefer to get my information from a vetted, professional organization than from some possible fake, unauthenticated member of a blog, but that's just me. I'm honestly surprised that you, of all people, would suggest a blog site over AWST to those seeking accurate and reliable information regarding this ongoing investigation. Then again, it could also be true that the technical information provided in AWST is not within your technical grasp.

Jesus, the people they let carry gold badges nowadays!

 

[Ms Tree]

I have a question.

If a transponder is shut off (can it be shut off?) will it 'disappear' from radar? Not trying to start a conspiracy but I have always been curious if you could make an airliner disappear from civilian radar. I know the military can track a civilian liner but can civilian radar track with out a transponder?

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I don't know what the reference is to "gold badges"?

AWST is a great source. In fact, that is one place you will find professionals in a forum such as that cited.

I am very well capable of comprehending the technical discussions.

You seem to imply that all who post to those forums are anonymous to all. That is not the case.

As for idiots in forums, EVERY forum has them. I would not place you in that category. However, I think we both could find a couple who fit that description here and other forums we frequent.

We could also say that about some reporters with our news sources. Maybe idiot is too strong of a term?

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

On thing that comes to mind, for those of you rushing to judgement on the terrorism front:
 
If there was explosive sabotage (or a catastrophic structural failure à la China Airlines 611) there would be a large, rather conspicuous debris field that would likely be located fairly quickly.
 
This makes me think the aircraft may have been more or less in one piece when it hit the ocean (perhaps something happened along the lines of Air France 447).
 
Of course, all this is just my amateur speculation.

 

[Knotbuyinit]

I have a question.

If a transponder is shut off (can it be shut off?) will it 'disappear' from radar? Not trying to start a conspiracy but I have always been curious if you could make an airliner disappear from civilian radar. I know the military can track a civilian liner but can civilian radar track with out a transponder?

If the transponder is selected off or a technical issue degrades its various functions, the aircraft will still bounce (return) a radar signal. That's the short answer.

 

[Ms Tree]

That's why I figured. Wouldn't any debris falling from the sky also leave some sort of radar signature? I would have thought that the failure would have been seen so to speak.

 

[eolesen]

I know the military can track a civilian liner but can civilian radar track with out a transponder?

Yep. It will still generate a return, but there won't be corresponding information as to who that return is.

Keep in mind that not all aircraft have transponders -- it's only required for those operating in controlled airspace.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

The current Long range radar (CARSR and ARSR) used in ATC in the US (Joint FAA/Air Force) and independently used by FAA has a max range of 250 NM. I am not sure if they are using the same type in Vietnam and Malaysia. The CARSR Radar 'sees' objects using search (primary), and identifies using beacon (secondary-interrogator/transponder).

Pretty good basic description here:

http://www.answers.com/topic/surveillance-radar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Route_Surveillance_Radar

 

[Knotbuyinit]

That's why I figured. Wouldn't any debris falling from the sky also leave some sort of radar signature? I would have thought that the failure would have been seen so to speak.

 
You may want to reference this website to gain a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of ATC radar surveillance.   

 

[Ms Tree]

Short of the Bermuda triangle has a commercial aircraft ever just 'disappeared' like this. No debris trail as of yet and no indication of distress.

How hard would it be to make a plane disappear like that?

 

[xUT]

The current Long range radar (CARSR and ARSR) used in ATC in the US (Joint FAA/Air Force) and independently used by FAA has a max range of 250 NM. I am not sure if they are using the same type in Vietnam and Malaysia. The CARSR Radar 'sees' objects using search (primary), and identifies using beacon (secondary-interrogator/transponder).

Pretty good basic description here:

http://www.answers.com/topic/surveillance-radar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Route_Surveillance_Radar

Not sure but most likely Vietnam is using the FPN-40
Used to fix those in another life...
150NM GCA/PAR radar.
B) xUT

 

[WorldTraveler]

I have a question.

If a transponder is shut off (can it be shut off?) will it 'disappear' from radar? Not trying to start a conspiracy but I have always been curious if you could make an airliner disappear from civilian radar. I know the military can track a civilian liner but can civilian radar track with out a transponder?

 
I believe that Brazil charged that the in-flight collision of the US bound Embraer Legacy business jet with a Gol passenger jet over the Amazon was ruled in part because the Legacy turned off its transponder or it failed in flight.  The NTSB had a differing version of the incident based on the failure of the TCAS system but the Legacy was out of contact with ATC for a period of time and not visible on Brazilian radar.  The Gol flight crashed killing all onboard while the Legacy landed at a Brazilian AFB in the Amazon. Brazilian ATC could not "see" the Legacy.  There were also lapses that were found in the Brazilian ATC system because of that crash and which have been corrected (which is good in many respects but many US bound passenger jets also pass thru the same general area).  At the minimum, the Legacy pilots were found to be at fault for failing to establish positive communication with ATC (they say they tried) and for flying with a non-working TCAS system (which was in part ruled an Embraer design fault) . 
 
It took quite some time to find the wreckage of the G3 aircraft and even longer to extricate it from the Amazon.
 
Not entirely the same situation but loss of radar and ATC contact did happen - whether because of equipment or human error might not ever be fully known. 

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Pilot seemed like an interesting, nice guy type fellow with 33 years at Malaysia Airlines:

http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/tribute-who-exactly-is-malaysia-airlines-captain-zaharie-shah-of-mh370.html

"53 year old Penangite and ex-Penang Free School student Captain Zaharie joined Malaysia Airlines in 1981 and has a whopping 18,365 hours of flying under his belt. It is very unfortunate that he was involved in the tragic MH370 accident.

Some have mentioned that the accident could have been caused by pilot error, however we provide evidence showing that it was extremely unlikely that this was caused by pilot error."

 

[Knotbuyinit]

Pilot seemed like an interesting, nice guy type fellow with 33 years at Malaysia Airlines:

http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/tribute-who-exactly-is-malaysia-airlines-captain-zaharie-shah-of-mh370.html

"53 year old Penangite and ex-Penang Free School student Captain Zaharie joined Malaysia Airlines in 1981 and has a whopping 18,365 hours of flying under his belt. It is very unfortunate that he was involved in the tragic MH370 accident.

Some have mentioned that the accident could have been caused by pilot error, however we provide evidence showing that it was extremely unlikely that this was caused by pilot error."

I agree with those statements 100%! The overall consensus among aviation professionals is that whatever happened, happened very quickly and caused a total loss of control of the aircraft. I was reading today in The Aviation Herald that according to Air Traffic Controllers in China, radar data suggest a steep and sudden descent of the aircraft, during which the track of the aircraft changed from 024 degrees to 333 degrees. It is my belief that this deviation wasn't a deliberate, controlled attempt to return the aircraft to a suitable airport for an emergency landing but rather an ominous indicator the aircraft was out of control. If this scenario is factual, then the loss of structural integrity was soon to follow.       

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Not sure but most likely Vietnam is using the FPN-40
Used to fix those in another life...
150NM GCA/PAR radar.
B) xUT

The Malaysian AIP shows radar coverage up to 200 nm. This radar is located at Kota Bharu (WMKC), and the normal configuration of Malaysian DCA radars is a co mounted PSR (60 nm range) antenna with a MSSR antenna , range 200 nm. This is the nearest radar to the last displayed position (N6.97 E103.63) on FR24.

As this location is 93 nm from the Kota Bharu radar, it is outside PSR coverage, so no primary radar returns would have been seen. However the position is well within SSR coverage with a lowest coverage height of about 5000 ft at this range. At 200 nm the lowest coverage height is about FL270.

The SSR data from this radar is sent to the KL ATC center at Subang, which provides enroute ATS for the KL FIR.

As for other radars, the last position is about 190 nm from the Hat Yai radar site in Southern Thailand, and 290 nm from the Ho Chi Minh radar, so no other radar coverage was available.

However there is an ADS-B site on Con Son island, about 130 nm south of HCMC. This is at a elevated site of 1500 ft, so has very good coverage, and is 200 nm from the last FR24 position. The lowest coverage height is about FL220 at this range. The Con Son ADS-B data is also sent to Singapore ATC to enhance surveillance of the ATS routes in the adjacent Singapore FIR


So its likely that the various ATS providers had good position data - but entirely dependant on the aircrafts transponder/s. Without that no data at all. There could of course be military radars providing PSR coverage of this area - but that has not been disclosed as yet.