U.S., China reach new aviation services agreement

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I am almost posititve that will be the next route UAL will apply for.. Either ORD or SFO CAN - Lets just say the buzz is out.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

"beauty",

"lets just say" that if AA applies for ORD/CAN first, they will get it WAY before UAL, due to your recent good fortune(IAD/PEK).

AA has been known to use some diversionary(for the lack of a better word) tactics, meaning, while "everyone and their sister" is FIGHTING over PEK, AA IMHO would do well to apply for ORD/CAN first, then come back, in a year or two(at the most), for the Big enchilada...JFK/PEK(before DL does)

Again IMHO, anywhere in China from DFW, is a "non starter".

A perfect example of "that" is why AA has never even considered using a highly prized LHR slot for DFW !

AA may be based in tex-A$$, but our DNA is still(really) NYC/ORD !!

My fondest wish, is to see AA as the only US carrier with a "line up" that reads...(Non-stops) JFK/LHR...JFK/CDG...JFK/FCO...JFK/FRA...JFK/NRT...JFK/PEK..JFK/SYD !

NH/BB's

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

"beauty",

"lets just say" that if AA applies for ORD/CAN first, they will get it WAY before UAL, due to your recent good fortune(IAD/PEK).

AA has been known to use some diversionary(for the lack of a better word) tactics, meaning, while "everyone and their sister" is FIGHTING over PEK, AA IMHO would do well to apply for ORD/CAN first, then come back, in a year or two(at the most), for the Big enchilada...JFK/PEK(before DL does)

Again IMHO, anywhere in China from DFW, is a "non starter".

A perfect example of "that" is why AA has never even considered using a highly prized LHR slot for DFW !

AA may be based in tex-A$$, but our DNA is still(really) NYC/ORD !!

My fondest wish, is to see AA as the only US carrier with a "line up" that reads...(Non-stops) JFK/LHR...JFK/CDG...JFK/FCO...JFK/FRA...JFK/NRT...JFK/PEK..JFK/SYD !

NH/BB's

Sounds good - but that is kinda high expectations, It may happen but i doubt in either one of our lifetimes. Everyone said UAL wouldnt get IAD-PEK , We will see. AA May use diversionary tactics, They will be competing with people who have very good relationship with the chinese.. UAL probably wont get the next award, I would bet the line up is DAL and CO .. Possibly USAir..

 

[Cosmo]

Actually, I believe that United has a very good chance to win the 2008 frequencies (7 weekly) for SFO-CAN service, despite already holding five daily U.S.-China nonstop flights. United will almost certainly propose to operate the SFO-CAN flights with its B747-400s, the largest aircraft in any U.S. carrier's fleet. Plus, California has, by far, the largest amount of U.S.-CAN O&D traffic and SFO, unlike LAX with China Southern, has no nonstop service by a carrier from either the U.S. or China. These factors are two of the main criteria that the DOT seems to be using these days to select carriers for new China services, and they were the primary reasons for the selection of United's IAD-PEK proposal in the most recent China case.

In my estimation (and this prediction is worth everything you're paying for it ), the upcoming China awards will probably be as follows:

2007 - Delta (new designation) ATL-PVG
2008 - United SFO-CAN
2009 #1 - US Airways (new designation) PHL-PVG, unless the carrier doesn't acquire ULH aircraft -- a very real possibility IMHO -- in which case it could be HA HNL-PVG or perhaps World or ATA. Of course, the DOT is not required to designate a new carrier.
2009 #2 - Continental EWR-PVG
2009 #3 - American ORD-PEK
2009 #4 - Delta ATL-PEK

My crystal ball gets fuzzy beyond 2009, but it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that the most likely selections in 2010-2012 (three in 2010, and two each in 2011 and 2012) will be from among the following:

American JFK-PVG
Delta JFK-PVG
American LAX-PVG
Delta LAX-PVG
United LAX-PVG
Continental IAH-PVG
United IAD-PVG
Northwest DTW-PVG
Northwest DTW-PEK
American DFW-PVG
American DFW-PEK
US Airways PHL-PEK
US Airways PHX-PVG
US Airways LAS-PVG

I assume that only one carrier would be selected initially in the JFK-PVG and LAX-PVG markets, although additional carriers might be awarded frequencies in subsequent years (similar to events in the ORD-PVG market). And this list omits second daily frequencies in already-served markets such as United SFO-PVG or American ORD-PVG, which are possible but not too likely as long as there are other gateway/carrier combinations without nonstop service being sought.

The big questions about these possible routes are:

1.) Will the DOT continue to "penalize" Northwest (by refusing to award it more frequenices) if the carrier keeps operating its current flights via NRT?
2.) Will the DOT award two new PVG routes (US Airways at PHL and Continental at EWR), from U.S. hubs that are only about 90 miles apart, in the same year?
3.) Will American and its pilots come to an agreement allowing nonstop DFW-China flights?
4.) Will US Airways acquire the appropriate aircraft for U.S.-China service?

This is JMHO -- your thoughts would be appreciated.

 

[FWAAA]

Again IMHO, anywhere in China from DFW, is a "non starter".

A perfect example of "that" is why AA has never even considered using a highly prized LHR slot for DFW !

I agree that DFW-China is a nonstarter, but remember that Bermuda II prohibited AA from flying DFW-LHR; that changes next March 30, when I expect to see DFW-LGW become DFW-LHR.

As to DFW-China: Two or three years ago, when DL applied for ATL-China, the China traffic numbers (from SE US) just weren't there. DFW probably isn't much better.

I tend to think that nonstop China (or other Asian) service is always gonna be more centered on the West Coast than the East or the Midwest - if only because there's a little less backtracking required for connections. It's why MIA-Asia is never gonna be a winner; nearly everyone other than S Americans would have to fly East and South to get to MIA. SEA, YVR, SFO and LAX just make more sense if you're going to Asia.

LAX is not an official AA hub, but it has tremendous connectivity to most large US cities like NYC, BOS, CHI, MIA, DFW, etc. Not the blanket Eagle coverage like ORD or DFW have, but plenty of nonstops to/from significant population centers. I think that LAX-China(and other Asia) oughtta work for AA, especially since the only other LAX choices are the Chinese airlines. Yeah, PedanticBeauty, we know that UA serves HKG. HKG is governed by a separate bilateral agreement. Talking about mainland China here.

As usual, however, Cosmo is probably right.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

FWAAA,
Count me in, as to COSMO's "high batting average"

With that said, I disagree with COSMO's expectations for US AIR(not right away, anyway)

Back to AA.

The FEDS have NO problem with LARGE east coast cities to China(ex. EWR), so JFK is a strong possibility(before DL !)

But the BEST "play" for AA is to come out EARLY, and VERY Strong for CAN, out of ORD....then, "back in to" PEK, a bit down the road.

(While my opinion, plus 3 or 4 dollars, will get you a "cold one" in most Gin Joints), I feel VERY-VERY strongly about my theory about going after CAN first !

???

NH/BB's

 

[whlinder]

2007 - Delta (new designation) ATL-PVG
2008 - United SFO-CAN
2009 #1 - US Airways (new designation) PHL-PVG, unless the carrier doesn't acquire ULH aircraft -- a very real possibility IMHO -- in which case it could be HA HNL-PVG or perhaps World or ATA. Of course, the DOT is not required to designate a new carrier.
2009 #2 - Continental EWR-PVG
2009 #3 - American ORD-PEK
2009 #4 - Delta ATL-PEK

My crystal ball gets fuzzy beyond 2009, but it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that the most likely selections in 2010-2012 (three in 2010, and two each in 2011 and 2012) will be from among the following:

American JFK-PVG
Delta JFK-PVG
American LAX-PVG
Delta LAX-PVG
United LAX-PVG
Continental IAH-PVG
United IAD-PVG
Northwest DTW-PVG
Northwest DTW-PEK
American DFW-PVG
American DFW-PEK
US Airways PHL-PEK
US Airways PHX-PVG
US Airways LAS-PVG

I assume that only one carrier would be selected initially in the JFK-PVG and LAX-PVG markets, although additional carriers might be awarded frequencies in subsequent years (similar to events in the ORD-PVG market). And this list omits second daily frequencies in already-served markets such as United SFO-PVG or American ORD-PVG, which are possible but not too likely as long as there are other gateway/carrier combinations without nonstop service being sought.

I'll go with
2007 - CO EWR-PVG
2008 - UA SFO-CAN
2009 #1 - DL (new designation) ATL-PVG
2009 #2 - AA ORD-PEK
2009 #3 - UA LAX-PVG
2009 #4 - NW LAX-PEK
2010 #1 - DL ATL-PEK
2010 #2 - AA JFK-PVG
2010 #3 - CO EWR-CAN
2011 #1 - DL JFK-PEK
2011 #2 - CO IAH-PVG
2012 #1 - AA DFW-PEK
2012 #2 - UA IAD-PVG

At this point, the only major missing city pairs are DFW-PVG, IAH-PEK, ORD/LAX-CAN, and DTW.

Total slots are
UA 8 SFO-PVG/PEK/CAN, ORD/IAD-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG (3 new)
NW 4 NRT-PVG/PEK/CAN, LAX-PEK (1 new)
CO 4 EWR-PVG/PEK/CAN, IAH-PVG (3 new)
AA 4 ORD-PVG/PEK, JFK-PVG, DFW-PEK (3 new)
DL 3 ATL-PVG/PEK, JFK-PEK (3 new)

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

whindler,

I see a flaw(or two) in your theory's.

First award....CO ?........Maybe
Second award...UAL(08)...NO WAY, due to award in 06' !!!

As I've already mentioned earlier, IF AA is SERIOUS about being a MAJOR player to China ,and I believe they are, they MUST secure CAN FIRST, from ORD, AND before UAL !!!!!!!!!!!
PEK will automatically come later.

AA historically, does'nt go after the MOST frequency.
To try to "catch" the "asian BIG BOYS"(UAL/and NW), is unatainable I believe.

AA will have a mathmatical ADVANTAGE, if DL does NOT get the 07'(first award). DL won't go after JFK, first, so AA won't have to worry about JFK/CAN , from DL, BUT WILL...!!! have to worry about UAL going after CAN on their "first shot", which is why AA NEEDS to get ORD/CAN first, then get JFK/PEK, before DL.
(All of "this" is Irrespective as to what CO does "across the river" in EWR., because there is a large enough "pie" in NYC for two US legacy's to make $$$.
Now 3, well thats a different story.)

NH/BB's

 

[whlinder]

Well all the apps are now in:

2007 - 1 Zone 1 or Zone 2 Award, "preferably" issued to a "new entrant"

DL: ATL - PVG

2008 - 1 Guangzhou award. Must be non-stop from the USA

UA: SFO - CAN

2009 - 4 Zone 1 Awards, 1 "preferably" issued to a "new entrant"

UA: LAX - PVG
NW: DTW - PVG, DTW - PEK
CO: EWR - PVG
US: PHL - PEK
DL: ATL - PEK
AA: ORD - PEK

I still think ATL-China is a horrendous waste of a slot at this point in time, when NYC-PVG and LAX-China are woefully underserved, but if they're the only eligible application I guess they win by default.

For 2009 I'd still be surprised if US gets the planes to make PHL work and if NW is still applying for DTW then they will still be operating NRT-China, thus eliminating their applications. That should pretty much streamline the decision.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Well, I was WRONG about AA going after CAN !!!!

Now I would guess, that AA/ORD-PEK/09 would be(almost) "a Lock".

NH/BB's

 

[FWAAA]

Well, I was WRONG about AA going after CAN !!!!

Now I would guess, that AA/ORD-PEK/09 would be(almost) "a Lock".

I wouldn't be too sure about that.

CAN didn't surprise me since it's almost as far away as HKG and would have required a waiver of the APA agreement since it would probably be over 16 hours from ORD (like DFW-PEK would have been).

Notice that UA is also seeking LAX-PVG. AA should have applied fof that in addition to ORD-PEK.

It looks like an airline's first route is a gimmee, but subsequent ones are gonna be difficult. Delta is gonna win this year's route without any analysis because it's the only new carrier to apply and NW will be laughed at (since it isn't a new carrier and didn't do enough to rebut the presumption put forth by DOT). Notice that Delta won't have to show any consumer benefits of an Atlanta-China flight.

USAir is likely to win its 2009 as a new entrant, but the others will be fought over. And UA still has those bigger 747s and cute slogans to help it win the day.

Looks like AA should have bought NW after all.

 

[eolesen]

Well all the apps are now in:

You missed MAXJet, who applied for SEA-PVG. All business-class, but they better meet the definition of new entrant than legacy carriers like DL and even UA who have wasted their previous route authority awards.....

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

"beauty",

"lets just say" that if AA applies for ORD/CAN first, they will get it WAY before UAL, due to your recent good fortune(IAD/PEK).

AA has been known to use some diversionary(for the lack of a better word) tactics...


///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

It looks like AMR didn't use the diversionary tactics, UAL for SFO - CAN and LAX - PEK... I wonder why AMR doesn't apply for JFK, plenty of traffic. My guess is they don't want to compete directly with CAL. Should be interesting.. Do you think the pilots will work out a deal for longer routes or do you think that will get spoiled in negotiations?

 

[whlinder]

Yeah I did miss MaxJet. Interesting app, not many seats on their planes and no feed to speak of but most definitely a unique gateway and a new entrant. Guess the DOT would have to pull out the "more seats = more consumer benefits" to turn them down.