What Do You Think Will Happen Next ?

[BoeingBoy]

Thanks, jimxtx, for the clarification.

Now a question, spurred by what passed for a 1113 letter in the company offer. Assume a negotiated agree with some hypothetical union - call it ALPA - and a 1113 letter that is agreed to be void after a) 60 days, b) Jan 31, 05, or c) anytime the company can "demonstrate" that they need more than agreed to. My question is - can the union still engage in self help if the company seeks further concessions thru abrogation?

 

[jimntx]

As I understand it, the answer in that case would be Yes the union can engage in self-help. Once the agreement expires or the company declares the agreement null and void, then it's back to square one as if the agreement never existed.

But (and I'm truly not trying to be tacky here) given the current cash position of US Airways, and given the ATSB covenant that $725 million cash on hand must be maintained, do you think that the company could make it to 05JAN once they enter bankruptcy and suppliers start demanding cash on delivery for supplies? I think Dr. Bronner has been pretty straightforward that RSA will not put anymore money in the pot. What other major money source is going to step up to the plate? IMHO, things do not look good now.

 

[BoeingBoy]

jimntx,

Well, I'll be tacky. If this company files C11, I don't believe it will emerge. Too many folks have too much money on the line to think that at least one of them won't get nervous enough to pull the plug.

My question was mainly rhetorical, and thanks for the answer.

Jim

 

[Rico]

Oh, I agree, "Option A" (restructure) is a long shot, while "Option B" (Yard Sale) is much more likely...

Such a situation has to exist to be able to force the severe concessions necessary not just to make Airways competitive, but hard to compete against if restructured. Nothing short of severe cost reductions will entice any creditor or investor to even think about a future Airways.

The only thing I AM sure of is that nothing like the status quo will exist in the near future. That is why I KNOW that there will no longer be a contract for any of the mainline unions anything like what they have in place today. The contracts will either be MDA-ized, or will not matter as the company will be dead.

But I have a strong feeling that management has decided that in this "high stakes poker game" that it is time either bet it all, or cash out.

Meaning that the idea will no longer be to come down and reach parity with the LCC's, rather to surpass them on both a cost and revenue basis. Such a situation has to exist if there is any hope to retain or gain creditor support now, and investment for re-emergance/growth later. Just matching jetBlue/AWA/ SWA will not open any purse strings.

And that is why restructuring is one reeeeeeeaal long shot in comparison to the near "sure thing" that liquidation is...

Because that would mean Management would basically have to get everything on their wish list, everything. Otherwise they would simply "cash out".

IMO, even with the challenge a dramatic restructuring would entail, I still think they are about to "play their hand", rather than fold and leave the table.

Because the payoff could be huge for them IF they pull it off... (and they would have already left the "game" by now if that was their "Plan A")

RSA will not sink another dime into THIS version of US Airways. But remember, this version of US Airways will no longer exist in the near future. If management is able to get everything they ask for, then it may well be the kind of airline that the RSA (or another investor) would pay for.

No one on here can dispute that the overall trend of Legacy carriers has been to shift domestic flying into "Express". Why then is it so hard to think that trend cannot continue up into the Airbuses? Afterall, if they can paint "Express" on the side of aircraft the size of the 'ol F-28 and F-100, it is not that much of a stretch to make the remainder of the domestic fleet work under the same rules. If I told you three years ago that F-100's (EMB-190) were about to be operated by Express, you might have shown the same disbelief, but it is a clear possibility now, right...?

One thing I thought of last night, could Virgin be the example Airways is going for (with US Airways "Mainline" only a widebody international carrier, while the remainder of narrowbodies are "Express"...)?

Well, theories aside, we all can be sure that things are about to get real messy in a short while. A "Shock and Awe" program (per se) on labor to both stun and cower them into submission. They are about to whack off the "dead branches" to allow the tree to grow again, or chop it all up for firewood.

Peace B)

 

[jimntx]

Rico, I'm not sure that is not the way that AMR is headed also. Their "secret" plan over 10 years ago was to keep International, transcons, and long-haul heavy (like the DFW-YVR 757s) at AA and move all other domestic flying regardless of a/c type or size to AE.

 

[Rico]

Oh yeah, it just takes one major carrier to move the industry's perception of "Express" into even larger equipment. It might blow the mind of some to think of a A320 as possibly an "Express Aircraft", but isn't it obvious that is exactly where things HAVE BEEN headed so far (let alone might continue towards into the future)...?

I mean really, what is the big difference between express operations, and those of an LCC?

Plane size...?

I think that is about it anymore... But with the intro of the EMB-190/195, even that threshold has already been surpassed (B717).

I know this is gonna twist a lot of people's shorts on here, but everything been leading towards the majority of domestic flying to be done by an "Express" version of the major carrier... Might not actually be called "Express", but then again, it just very well could be named that. (why bother with something confusing as "Metrojet" anymore)

"Express" no more belongs on the side of the EMB-170 than an A319, but there it is in plain view.

To have such a thing occur at a legacy carrier, you would require a situation JUST like the one we are about to face, right...?

And like I have pointed out before (time and time again), such a thing is NOT a new trail being blazed, rather an extension of earlier compromises (made in less dire situations).

Some will laugh off such a thing as being impossible, but having hundreds of 70 and 90 seat jets at Express would have been scoffed at just a few years ago as well, no?

All of this is just my guess, but it is based upon the obvious trends of the industry so far.... Why would they all the sudden "stop" the "express trend" when reaching narrowbodies already flown by the LCC's..?

 

[lovesthesouth]

When we file for Chap 11, how long do you think it will be before the doors are shut and we are all out of a job? I'm just wondering how long this whole process will linger on. I really don't see us emerging from this one. How has it been done at the other carriers that went out of business? Did they just discontinue all at once or what?

 

[nycbusdriver]

When we file for Chap 11, how long do you think it will be before the doors are shut and we are all out of a job? I'm just wondering how long this whole process will linger on. I really don't see us emerging from this one. How has it been done at the other carriers that went out of business? Did they just discontinue all at once or what?

[post="177257"][/post]​

Not before Election Day.

 

[28yrsnojob]

bk by mon or tue of next week..........