- Aug 20, 2002
I would like to know if anyone has a rational opinion here on the issue of a min fleet size of 279. If you take out the international (Europe, Carib.) and spare A/C''s I suspect we should have about 250 +- aircraft to use per day.[BR][BR]Using that assumption - unless we plan to run that many aircraft between the big 10 cities (CLT,PHL,PIT,LGA,BOS,DCA,LAX.SFO,SEA,MCO) only, I suspect we will find that all those mainline planes have to go somewhere else in addition to the big 10. [BR][BR]250 planes times 5 average trips per day (2.5 round trips which I think is conservative, very conservative) = 1250 trips per day divided by 2 = 625 rountrips per day divided by 3 hubs equals 208 round trips per hub per day.[BR][BR]How many flights a day does PHL have to the other 9 cities listed above per day? I suspect its below 85 total. 208-85 = 123 roundtrips per day per hub that have to go somewhere OTHER than the big 10. That means [STRONG]369 ROUNDTRIPS[/STRONG] per day Total to go to OTHER cities and/or between other cities. Correct me if I am wrong, but leaves a whole lotta mainline flying that needs to go to the RDU''s, MIA''s, ROC''s, BWI''s, MSY''s, DEN''s, PHX''s on USairs system. Not to mention the rest of the cities that are mainline now.[BR][BR]I do believe if your city has 5 or less Mainline jets per day, packing is a good idea for you. It''s no fun I know. Been there done that. But to say that all the cities will go Express except the big boys is just not supported by the numbers supplied. As I said earlier, my figures are [STRONG]VERY[/STRONG] conservative as to A/C usage (RT''s) per day I think. I just don''t believe that we will fly all those jets between the big 10 cities, there is just to many planes to do that. That being said, [STRONG]Anyone[/STRONG] [STRONG]who tells me that all is lost and only the Big 10 will be mainline is either lying or is uninformed. [/STRONG]In either case, I''m not intrested in what liars and the unimformed have to say. The numbers just don''t support the doom and gloom they predict.[BR][BR]I''m sure that someone out there in US land has more accurate number''s but I suspect the answer will remain the same or improve my numbers. Most mainline cities that we have now will remain mainline based on 279 aircraft. [BR][BR]OK -- your turn, my hide is pretty thick after 20 years in customer service.