Busdrvr & Fly,
Thank you for your posts. Bus, who knows, we probably do know each other, as the airline industry is a relatively small circle. Wouldn't I be embarrassed if I found out that we were beer drinking buddies.
In any case, you seem to be very insightful and educated about the airline industry as a whole including F9. My point is that the industry is so volatile that it is impossible to guess where any carrier might end up. There are so many variables to consider, such as potential mergers, buy-outs, or sudden service vacuums, which would create unforecast opportunity. Current data or trends could be thrown out the window at a moments notice. That is why I will never predict the failure of any airline. The only thing for certain is that the industry can not operate in its current fashion indefinately. Something will have to give sooner rather than later. Did F9 over-expand? Yes. Will they report a loss this quarter? Yes. Will they be around for their 20th Anniversay as Mr. Fish proclaims? I don't know, but they seem to have a great operation and are taking the necessary steps to retrench and build for their future. I hope they do because I don't want to start over again.
As I have said before, I hope the best for the UAL employees. I think that our companies can successfully coexist and become profitable as long as we don't kill each other in the meantime. Usually its best to compete against the devil you know instead of the devil you don't.