60 Mainline Jets?

[USA320Pilot]

HogDriver:

Hogdriver asked: "Are you hearing that these 60 Airbus Jets are new from the factory? Or already out there with some other order or carrier?"

Chip answers: HogDriver, I understand the company is in discussion with Airbus and lease companies, therefore, it's likely the additonal aircraft will come from multiple sources.

Regards,

Chip

 

[funguy2]

As I said in the other topic about this....

This whole topic has so many flaws... No airplanes, no money to acquire them with, no profitable market to place them in, and on the other hand there is a hub elimination/downsizing going on.

Its hard to imagine where US Airways is going to place 60 aircraft, since they are in the process of eliminating / downsizing PIT.

Maybe 60 mainline aircraft would come out of the elimination / downsizing of PIT... that sounds about right... but still, no evidence as to where they will go...

Its interesting to me that every thought CCY has instantly becomes a "plan" on these boards... I am sure someone is possibly looking at something at CCY... After all, they must do SOMETHING there... Just because they look at it, consider it, doesn't mean that everything they look at happens... I would bet the implementation-to-idea ratio is around 5%. Meanwhile, people on this board get all worked up over the 95% that is discarded for one reason or another...

And what I didn't say...

The other possibility is that 60 new airplanes (i.e. job growth) is the carrot to be dangled to get everyone into another round of concessions... Frankly, I can't imagine that happening with all the friends Siegel has made with the rank-and-file.

 

[curious]

Chip,

Since you have heard that 30 buses will be arriving in 2004 when do you expect the recalls to begin? Or do you believe this is more along the lines of "productivity improvements". (Don't see how though) <_<

Thanks,
Curious

 

[ITRADE]

As I said in the other topic about this....

This whole topic has so many flaws... No airplanes, no money to acquire them with, no profitable market to place them in, and on the other hand there is a hub elimination/downsizing going on.

If you're that worried about the money to procure the aircraft, please remember that they can be leased for about 200k a month - an absolute bargain owed in part to the glut of aircraft that are taking an extended leave at places like MHV and LCQ.

Anyhow, now that I've come to ponder it a bit, it really doesn't take that much effort to allocate 30 aircraft. Figure 27 would actually fly. 3 would be spares.

Since US would certainly be avoiding most short-haul flying, count on the flying being transcon or Caribbean. A round trip from, say, BUF to CLT to BGI back to CLT and back to BUF will require the services of one aircraft for an entire day. If US converted some of their weekend only Caribbean flying to daily or 4x weekly, they could easily eat up about 15 aircraft. The other 12 would be placed elsewhere.

Personally, I would rather see additional A320s and A321s as the CASM gets smaller and smaller as the seat numbers increase.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Curious:

Curious asked: "Since you have heard that 30 buses will be arriving in 2004 when do you expect the recalls to begin? Or do you believe this is more along the lines of "productivity improvements". (Don't see how though).

Chip answers: It's to early to tell even if the aircraft arrive on the property because it's likely the company's additional aircraft news leak is an attempt to manage employee expectations and to effect pending negotiations. Management's desire is to increase pilot productivity by 30% with "Pref Bid", Reserve Time Balancing, and Work Rule Changes.

If management can accomplish that goal, many of the 60 additional aircraft could be flown with existing pilots. However, before any manpower estimates can be made, the transformation plan must be announced and new union accords obtained.

Respectfully,

Chip

 

[ITRADE]

Of course, at some point the company must begin filling in for "age 60" mandatory retirements....

 

[funguy2]

As I said in the other topic about this....

This whole topic has so many flaws... No airplanes, no money to acquire them with, no profitable market to place them in, and on the other hand there is a hub elimination/downsizing going on.

If you're that worried about the money to procure the aircraft, please remember that they can be leased for about 200k a month - an absolute bargain owed in part to the glut of aircraft that are taking an extended leave at places like MHV and LCQ.

Anyhow, now that I've come to ponder it a bit, it really doesn't take that much effort to allocate 30 aircraft. Figure 27 would actually fly. 3 would be spares.

Since US would certainly be avoiding most short-haul flying, count on the flying being transcon or Caribbean. A round trip from, say, BUF to CLT to BGI back to CLT and back to BUF will require the services of one aircraft for an entire day. If US converted some of their weekend only Caribbean flying to daily or 4x weekly, they could easily eat up about 15 aircraft. The other 12 would be placed elsewhere.

Personally, I would rather see additional A320s and A321s as the CASM gets smaller and smaller as the seat numbers increase.

That only accounts for the first 30... And already under your scenario you have 12 unallocated aircraft...

And 1 Spare per 10 Aircraft seems awfully high...

So, I am thinking you have about 43-ish more airplanes worth of flying to find (assuming one Spare per 30)... And remember, you need to consider that SOMETHING will occur at PIT... Whatever that SOMETHING is, it will probably involve a redeployment of some amount of mainline flying to somewhere other than PIT. On top of 43 new, unallocated aircraft... That assumes the plan to increase caribbean service is true (and thats not a bad bet, in my opinion).

My point is, thats a lot of airplanes... Especially since the fleet count was reduced less than a year ago through bankrupcy (i.e. they could not figure out what to do with them 1 year ago... all of a sudden there is a new plan?)

 

[ITRADE]

OK. What is a proper spare to active fleet ratio? 1:10? 1:25? 1:30?

 

[jack mama]

Maybe we just won't do the S checks and replace each airbi with a new one as they come due...

 

[flynomore]

Maybe we just won't do the S checks and replace each airbi with a new one as they come due...

BINGO! GIVE THAT MAN A DOLL!

The aircraft leasing business is in the toilet. In order to move metal, the leasors dangle ZERO time airplanes with some type of maintenance warranty. Voila, valujet maintenance.

Don't think it will happen? A few years back you could get a car with this type of deal.

 

[funguy2]

OK. What is a proper spare to active fleet ratio? 1:10? 1:25? 1:30?

Well, I guess I am not sure... I am sure there is no magic bullet number... but 10% seems a bit high... That would mean on USAirways' fleet of 279 aircraft, there would be 28 spares. If US Airways is holding on to 28 Spares, it would be no wonder that they are losing money.

I would guess somewhere around 3-5% would be a better number... 5% would mean 14 Spares for US Airways.

Does anybody know what US Airways Spare Aircraft count is?

 

[insp89]

BINGO! GIVE THAT MAN A DOLL!

The aircraft leasing business is in the toilet. In order to move metal, the leasors dangle ZERO time airplanes with some type of maintenance warranty. Voila, valujet maintenance.

Don't think it will happen? A few years back you could get a car with this type of deal.

I do believe one of Siegle's next moves has just been uncovered. Trade in aircraft that are parked (Due to "S" checks in need of being accomplished,) for new or low time aircraft of the same type.

 

[justaumechanic]

At US Airways we run about 6 Spares in the ACTIVE Fleet.. This does not include aircraft allocated to Maintenance.. Right now we allocate 7 aircraft to Base Maintenance in PIT and 4 in CLT. (widebody and 757)

This compares to Southwest with a fleet of around 388 aircraft and no spares in the Active fleet.

 

[700UW]

US Airways has tried to do that with returning the airplane to the lessor, getting it checked and releasing, they have been busted at that game before and had to pay losts of money to the mechanic and related employees.

 

[Twicebaked]

Is it just me or does Chip think he's Miss Cleo?

They ask what is in store for the future and Chip gives his "vision".

Chip, you are becoming a joke with your theories.

Nobody hears any of this but you.

Makes one wonder what voices are telling you this :blink: