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On 3/5/2003 5

56 PM TWAnr wrote:
No argument here. It is obvious that by refusing to offer OVL outside STL and SLT, to mitigate lay offs, the company gets to furlough flight attendants at the top of the pay scale.
It is all about money!!!
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While it seems the decision to transfer the 757's early is the final nail in our coffin, let me play with a few numbers here.
Assuming all 16 of the 757's to be kept (until leases expire 1/2007 through 1/2008) are converted by year's end, and 44 MD80's have been converted and 28 parked, that leaves 11 757's and 32 MD80's on the LLC side as of the end of this year.
Assuming 22 FA's per 757 (just guessing) and 19 per MD80 (Jane Allen said 18-20) that means there should be just 850 FA's at LLC. That goes to seniority 25Apr70, and unfortunately means both your wife and me will get a close-up of the pavement. With the 757's remaining going back to the lessors at approximately 1 per month and assuming the MD80's continue to be converted at about the same rate, that means the end of LLC by the end of the summer 2004.
So what's gonna save us? Training. When will that start? When the transfer of AC to the AA side ceases to alleviate an overage and starts to create a shortage. When will that occur?
Right now it looks like an overage of 528 (company numbers) with those returning from leaves this April and May figured into the furloughs for those months. The next scary part is when 1500 return next Oct and Nov. That brings us to something over 2000 as an overage.
So now it looks like this: the transfer of 16 757's and 44 MD80's, along with associated flying, alleviates just under 1200 of this overage. So we're depending on attrition for the rest.
How reasonable is it to expect attrition of 1000 a year? Well, it's happened in the past. 44 retired in Jan, decisions which were made before the caca hit the ventilator, and I expect it to increase considerably in the near future, especially as details on paycuts become available. It would only take about 80 per month to force training by the end of the year. But what else could happen?
1) The economy. What will it do?
2) The damn war. If they do it and get it over with quickly, the economy and airlines might begin a quick recovery. If they don't, well, who knows?
3) The APFA Presidential Grievance. As you know , APFA has finally decided to file a grievance on not offering leaves on the AA side. If this is won it could mean literally hundreds of LLC jobs.
4) Court cases. Probably to late to save anyone short-term, even if we should win. Grievances, however, generally happen much more quickly. Better to put hopes on that.
5) United. If they go belly up (and I wouldn't wish that on my fellow airline employee even to save my own skin) things could change drastically as we move into former UA territory.
Just playing with numbers. Comments welcome.
MK