AA dropping the Nerd Bird

[jimntx]

Just found out from someone in St. Louis...some of the cuts that s80dude listed will take place on 8/25, the rest will occur about the middle of November. They just haven't been loaded into Sabre yet.

 

[MAH4546]

San Jose-San Diego will also go; Fort Lauderdale-Kingston and Chicago-Moscow won't operate for the winter, return in April. Total changes in daily departures this winter:

Boston (-5)
Chicago (-16)
Dallas (-19)
Los Angeles (no change)
Miami (+14)
New York/JFK (-3)
New York/LGA (-1)
St. Louis (-18)
San Juan (+3)

 

[FA Mikey]

Mark where can we find a break down of what the plus and minuses will be? Interesting Miami is gaining 14 new flights.

 

[MAH4546]

Mark where can we find a break down of what the plus and minuses will be? Interesting Miami is gaining 14 new flights.

Only STL mainline changes have been loaded. We'll know more next week.

Miami is the only thing still strong right now. LatAm/Caribbean traffic is holding up with the exception of Brazil.

 

[BoeingBoy]

According to the latest BTS data, which covers the 4th quarter of 2008, there are ~300 passengers total both ways in the STL-PHX market that don't fly WN - or ~150 each way. The average fare is ~$192 one way due to WN in the market. Considering that those 150 passengers each way are split between various carriers - AA and UA come to mind immediately, you'd be looking at no more than about a 50% load factor with only 2 flights each way per day. Even if a non-stop AA flight siphoned some traffic from WN and produced a 65% load factor it's hard to see how any money could be made on that route in this environment.

Jim

 

[IORFA]

SSSHHHHH, we have it on good authority they were full all the time and were raking it in hand over fist.

 

[jimntx]

The thing is "we was there first." We basically gave that market to WN. Just like we gave the STL-MCI route to them. If it were anyone but WN, the fares would be sky-high because they have the routes to themselves now.

However, back to the thread topic...People, things are getting ugly. Going into the height of the Summer travel season, every International base except DCA, RDU, and SFO lost[/i] bid positions for July. RDU and SFO stayed the same, and DCA gained 2 bid positions (???). Is DCA bringing the F100 back?

And, when I say lost bid positions, it looks like whole lines of flying.
BOS -18, IDF -6, LAX-I -1, JFK -49, IMA -12, IOR -28. That's a net loss of 112 bid positions in International. Domestic lost 214 bid positions systemwide. Only MIA-D gained bid positions for July and that was only 20 net because they lost 12 bid positions on the 757.

 

[BoeingBoy]

The thing is "we was there first." We basically gave that market to WN. Just like we gave the STL-MCI route to them. If it were anyone but WN, the fares would be sky-high because they have the routes to themselves now.

I don't want to turn this into a US thread, but the "We gave ______ to WN" is still heard at US (fill in the blank with California, Florida, or the Northeast). Of course, the $64 million question is how much would have been lost if high cost US (or AA just to a lesser degree) tried to fight low cost WN for those markets? Lower fares would have eventually won the market share battle anyway - Joe Average Flyer doesn't care about who was there first or much of anything else except who has the cheapest ticket and there's not enough premium passengers who would pay for the perks that legacies offer to make a profit.

Jim

 

[eolesen]

How much of the increase in flights at MIA are frequencies being added to offset the AB3 retirements? Some markets are going from 1 AB3 to two 738's. Take 34 airplanes out, and 14 frequencies seems to line up.

 

[MAH4546]

SJC-SAN and SJC-SNA will also end 25AUG09.

How much of the increase in flights at MIA are frequencies being added to offset the AB3 retirements? Some markets are going from 1 AB3 to two 738's. Take 34 airplanes out, and 14 frequencies seems to line up.

Zero. PTY was supposed to get a third daily, but that is on hold. 6 of the new flights are MQ flying.

 

[ual777fan]

For all of you keeping track at home, here's the list of cuts to AUS over the past two years... This is from memory so a couple of the frequencies might be off.

-8 x DAL
-3 x ORD
-3 x SJC
-1 x SEA
-1 x SNA
-2 x RDU (1 was RDU-LGA)
-2 x STL
-1 x HOU-LGA
-1 x LAX (which used to be 3x every day and is now just 3x during the week)
-1 x BOS (I forget when this was canned)

But we did get one more (always full, always late) flight to DFW. And we still don't have that long awaited flight to MIA. And you also pulled the plug on Oakland service. I think they are trying to make me fly United to the Bay Area.

P.S. I could swear that JFK existed at some point but I don't remember.

 

[JFK Fleet Service]

Boston (-5)
Chicago (-16)
Dallas (-19)
Los Angeles (no change)
Miami (+14)
New York/JFK (-3)
New York/LGA (-1)
St. Louis (-18)
San Juan (+3)

The LGA numbers are misleading, as mainline is losing six flights and Eagle is adding five for a net of minus one.Wouldn't be a big deal if we were actually only losing one flight,but management is already tossing around a loss of fifty heads.Apparently we've been overstaffed these past few months and losing six mainline flights is the perfect opportunity to have a layoff.

 

[MAH4546]

The LGA numbers are misleading, as mainline is losing six flights and Eagle is adding five for a net of minus one.Wouldn't be a big deal if we were actually only losing one flight,but management is already tossing around a loss of fifty heads.Apparently we've been overstaffed these past few months and losing six mainline flights is the perfect opportunity to have a layoff.

The number is not misleading unless you don't know simple math. AA's total departures from LGA will be reduced by one. I didn't have the MQ/AA splits except for MIA until today, but here they are:

CITY - (MAINLINE)/(EAGLE-CONNECTION)
Boston (-5)/(-2)
Dallas (-16)/(-3)
JFK (-2)/(-1)
Los Angeles (-1)/(+1)
LaGuardia (-6)/(+5)
Miami (+8)/(+6)
O'Hare (-11)/(-5)
St. Louis (-8)/(-10)
San Juan (+3)/(0)

 

[Ardent15]

That's too bad. I live in San Jose and have always wanted to go to Austin.

 

[JFK Fleet Service]

The number is not misleading unless you don't know simple math.

Do you try to be this much of an (Deleted by Moderator) or are we just the beneficiaries of years of practice?

Moderator Note: Creative spelling of a profanity--such as using diacritical marks in place of vowels--does not make it less so. Do not do this.