AE/Envoy Pilots Reject AIP

WT's numbers for MQ are a convenient statistic, but also one that isn't telling the whole story.

His number accounts for what's marketed as AA* but doesn't include cover what's also out there as US* and US* is actually a larger operation on both an enplanement and a RPM basis.

Code: 
Metric AA    UA
RPM    10.4  11.0
Enpl   21.7  28.2
In a consolidated view, MQ accounts for ~42% of regional flying; they were already set to fall below 40% with the addition of the E175s going to Republic.


The one thing WT is right on is that the chance of moving those specific aircraft was and remains low. But it's not because ALPA has an upper hand here -- it's because they were never really intended to be moved -- they were going to be retired and replaced, with the pilots moving over to the E175's as they show up.

Also not mentioned is that 66 of the 231 aircraft still at Eagle were scope-busters (sub-50 seat aircraft) that nobody wants.
 
I used actual numbers of flights.... it takes two pilots to fly an RJ regardless of the size.

If the aircraft weren't wanted anyway, then it further validates that there is no reason why AE pilots should accept a reduction in pay only to subsequently lose their job anyway.

and if AA can replace all of that capacity that they were going to get rid of eventually, more power to them.

The simple fact is that AE pilots have the power to force the reduction in the size of AA's regional operations much faster than AA had planned - which has significant implications to AA's network plans.
 
WorldTraveler said:
Pilot salaries will go up which further dictates that large RJs are necessary in order to make the economics of regional carrier flying work. Those network carriers who have moved most aggressively to replace regional carrier flying or upgrade will be in the best position - and they also will be the ones where many RJ pilots might have the best chance of career movement.

it is pure economics. as noted, I tend to think the economics are on the side of AE pilots.
Click to expand...
Here's where you're wrong...

1) I agree that rates for pilots may indeed go up, but just as people are starting to realize with the economics of the PHL and CLT hubs, higher rates of pay for the regionals will quickly turn profitable flying into unprofitable flying.

2) Putting a larger airplane into the market only works if you can fill the seats needed to spread the costs across... Both regional components at AAG have load factors that are ~7% less than their mainline counterparts. If they're operating at a lighter load factor today, putting a larger airplane will only make the problem worse.

Again, I'll agree that rates may indeed go up, but it will come at the expense of block hours going down.

It's the proverbial "more money for fewer people" vs. "less money in exchange for more jobs" argument that the union members have argued over for the past 20 years.

 
WorldTraveler said:
The simple fact is that AE pilots have the power to force the reduction in the size of AA's regional operations much faster than AA had planned - which has significant implications to AA's network plans.
Click to expand...
The economic gravity of the industry situation appears to be that the level of air service provided to the tier 3 and 4 cities is going to shrink back to the pre-50 seat jet days.

The only thing the AE pilots really have the power over is how quickly they want to be the one left without a chair.

And let's be crystal clear -- this isn't just AA or UA's problems. UA got hit first by Chautauqua, but DL also has a significant amount of exposure to whatever happens with ExpressJet and Chautauqua. They represent 30% of DL's regional fleet, no idea what % of the flying, but ExpressJet is the bulk of ATL if I recall.

Ironically, the only major who may be in the clear here is AS... QX doesn't appear to have the same problem finding pilots.
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]There is a natural Seniority in employment anyway. Negotiating everything else into seniority based systems like unions do just restricts and hurts employees choices and options which in the long run cost them money.[/SIZE]
 
E,
I absolutely agree that the regional industry is going to shrink. It will take larger aircraft to justify the higher salaries which makes economics for 50 seat aircraft which were already precarious now all but impossible unless legacy carriers have locked in low rates that are tied to retaining flying for large RJs.

And you are right that the amount of service to small cities will shrink but that is also why some hubs have to be closed.
As much as people want to pick on DL's cutbacks at CVG and MEM, they have been able to aggressively remove 50 seat aircraft and are replacing those with mainline aircraft that are flying fewer flights overall to fewer hubs.

UA is just now getting serious about rationalizing its network and AA hasn't done it and no one wants to admit that there will be hubs that will close in part because the economics of hubs change dramatically with fewer RJs. Neither AA or UA have enough large RJs on order to offset the loss of small RJs. AA/US could pull a bunch of mainline growth out of the hat to offset RJ cutbacks but the smallest aircraft of a decent sized fleet is the A319 and it is still being delivered.

AA and UA CAN adapt but it will take time, it will be painful in terms of transition, and some hubs will have to be closed at least as hubs.

As for DL, they have seen this RJ crisis coming for years. They have already planned to aggressively reduce 50 seat RJ flying and are pulling the planes out faster than anyone else. They also negotiated a host of agreements to get rid of the planes and to tie large RJ flying to performance on the remaining 50 seat network. I'm not sure that anyone else has done that but given that AA was trying to do it with AE as the first choice and AE pilots rejected this deal, I don't think AA has its plans worked out yet.

Every carrier that smalls RJs or uses them as part of their network is exposed to a certain degree. The question is who has moved the fastest and most aggressively to reduce that exposure and replace it with other aircraft and in deals that ensure that RJ flying continues where it needs to.
 
I don't disagree with the basics of the article regarding how low regional carrier pilots are paid but it is not correct to say that network carriers only recently have been required to disclose codeshare arrangements is wrong - unless 1999 is recent because that is when the DOT implemented codeshare disclosure rules.
 
UPNAWAY said:
[SIZE=10.5pt]There is a natural Seniority in employment anyway. Negotiating everything else into seniority based systems like unions do just restricts and hurts employees choices and options which in the long run cost them money.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
I made the same argument a year ago.
 
RJcasualty said:
Looking for an airline to fly 60 EMB-175 aircraft (desperate) (DFW-ORD-JFK-MIA)


Hello there, here at the world's largest airline we are aggressively seeking an airline to staff and fly our state of the art, Embraer 175 turbo jet aircraft. These aircraft are on the way from Brazil and just waiting for your airline and all of the excess pilots that you have trained and on property (that also possess ATP minimums) to fly them. We are willing to pay precisely the bottom dollar that Delta pays for their feed, so please keep that in mind when bidding for this flying. Did we mention how shiny these jets are? They are extremely shiny and they have that new plane smell that pilots love. Pilots would probably fly these jets for free, they are THAT nice.

I am looking forward to hearing from you about your ability to fly these planes that are arriving. It is very cost prohibitive to have these jets sitting without pilots, so let's make a deal! Contact me anytime. Seriously. Anytime. I'm desperate here. My ascendency up the mAAnagerial ladder depends on this. I may already be screwed. Ugh. Please call. Please? Hello?
Click to expand...
Hello. I would like to apply. I have invested 10's of thousands of dollars to become a pilot but, I would be happy to work for what amounts to less than minimum wage. You did say the aircraft were shiny right?
 
eolesen said:
Looks like Republic's pilot negotiators came to their senses.http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/republic-airways-reaches-tentative-deal-with-pilots-union-for-its-three-airlines.html/Anyone want to place bets on how long it takes AAL comes out with a statement tentatively assigning jets (pending ratification) with Republic?...
Click to expand...
They still only barely have enough pilots to cover the scheduled deliveries of the rest of the 175's they already have, and that's after drawing down the other flying. If they have a handful of guys move on they again won't have enough crews for the AAG flying they are committed to now. They will have to attract a bunch of new hires to commit to any new aircraft.

Besides that, how will AAG explain that it's not economical to fly those aircraft at Eagle at the current pilot pay rates but it is economical to fly the aircraft at RAH where the pilots are paid MORE than at Eagle? It's not like the other work groups make up for it. RAH mechanics are paid more then Eagle and I would bet the rest are also.

If they do announce more flying for RAH after this it would indicate to me that Parker and gang were just looking for a convenient employee group to destroy to send a message to the rest for the future.
 
Looks like Republic's pilot negotiators came to their senses.

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/02/republic-airways-reaches-tentative-deal-with-pilots-union-for-its-three-airlines.html/

Anyone want to place bets on how long it takes AAL comes out with a statement tentatively assigning jets (pending ratification) with Republic?...
Click to expand...
Could it be that the MEC may decide to let the members decide this time? Let's reevaluate that again, huh? I think your correct though. The Pilots passing their contract at Repub will more than likely be used against the AE pilots. UNLESS, AAG really wants to rid itself of AE. I know AMR has said they would be profitable if it were not for AAG which includes AE. Just like Republic will do much better if they sold off Frontier...
 
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