airtran tops TPG offer

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KCFlyer said:
Actually - how giddy would you be when all the dust settles and it turns out that being turned down by Midwest makes Airtran stronger? Can anybody show me ANY airline merger where things actually made both airlines better?
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Western and Delta is the only one that comes to mind ... (Unless you go back to the CAB era....Northeast/Delta.... Pacific/Bonanza/West Coast = AirWest....that kind of thing)
 
Looks like FL will have to build another hub the old fashioned way. Any ideas on what cities they'll be in?

STL(AA and WN operate as a focus city, plenty of gate space available) , IND(plenty of gate space, nice new terminal coming online soon), MDW( gate space is maxed out), MKE gate space is available but do they want to go head to head with NW and YX? CMH ( Skybus hub , HP ince tried a hub there) MCI (Bad design for a connecting operation, YX focus city and WN operates a large operation there)

any other ideas?
 
KCFlyer said:
Actually - how giddy would you be when all the dust settles and it turns out that being turned down by Midwest makes Airtran stronger? Can anybody show me ANY airline merger where things actually made both airlines better?
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Delta/Western is commonly cited as a 'merger that worked'. But it's been 20 years, so your point is well taken. Before that, you might have to all the way back to 1961, United/Capital...
 
KCFlyer said:
MKE.
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Airtran should continue to build at MKE. Based on Midwest's intent to stay independent (yea, with NW having a vested interest) it could get quite ugly. And Airtran could be a winner in the end. There is no way a multi hub system of MSP/DTW and MKE would stay intact. And MSP nor DTW will ever be abandoned by NW. JMO
 
If history is any indication, I believe it will be MSP. After SW outbid us for ATA, we started flying to more cities non-stop out of IND. I don't believe we wanted to, nor could we have (due to limited gate space) made a mini-hub at MDW. The company's attitude seemed to be, "Okay, you (SW) got ATA, but we're pissed and we're not just going to sit here and do nothing". That concerned me at the time (I don't like decisions being made based on what someone else did to you, especially when emotions are involved), but it seems to have been a wise move, considering loads in and out of IND.

I don't see us doing anything with MKE. While we had a majority of shareholders in our favor, I believe there was an overwhelming majority of Midwest customers that were against the deal. Our loads have been excellent in/out of MKE. I don't think there will be anything more in MKE than adding a flt. here and there on an existing route, or perhaps 1 or 2 new non-stops.

Our management is pissed at NW, and I don't think making NW/TPG pay a little more $ will satisfy their thirst for revenge. We already have a mini-hub at FNT, so I don't see DTW being a factor (I'm surprised we even started service there, considering its proximity to FNT). With NW being dominant at MSP (we'll probably try to play on the negative PR about cancelled flts./lack of pilots, and the whole "the MSP flying public deserves competition/lower fares" thing), plenty of gate space at Humphrey, and our management looking for some way to get back at NW, I feel we'll hear MSP announced soon.

I'm not saying that it'll work, or that it's a good idea; just what I think will happen.
 
CynicalResAgent said:
If you guys go after their MSP hub and your codeshare partners F9 are building a focus city in MEM, NW is gonna have it's hands full with LCC competition in its own backyard.
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I think that, to a certain extent, all majors have their hands full with low cost competition, and all low cost carriers have their hands full with the majors recovering. If my prediction about MSP comes true, I have no doubt that NW will "defend its turf" (whether in MSP, or in MEM with Frontier). Another possibility is that we add a few more new non-stops in MSP, DTW, and MKE (the thought being that you try to hurt NW a little bit "all over", not allowing the defense of their turf to be concentrated in one place).

One thing I feel that's important to remember is that "defending one's turf" is a phrase used to describe what actions NW will take; it is completely separate from, and irrelevant to the traveling public's response to the action. IOW, if NW added 50 flts./day in MSP, and travelers feel that the service is unreliable (due to recent negative PR), or if they've had previous bad experiences on NW, then all NW is doing is flying a bunch of empty planes around. They could initially keep ticket prices (and therfore revenue and yield) down with the increased # of seats and fare wars, but in the end, someone who travels regularly is usually more than willing to pay more for more reliable and friendly service. That's not to say that I've bought in to the whole "it's an illegal union action/the pilots are calling in sick" thing (I haven't). But in a case like this, the truth and/or what I believe has little to do with what the traveling public thinks, especially after being bombarded by airline industry articles in the media that are, more often than not, so far from the truth that it boggles the mind. I once read an article describing TCAS, that said, and I'm quoting, "Pilots tend to ignore TCAS warnings when they (pilots) are on the ground". :blink:

I think that NW is a fine airline, and I know several pilots over there (all good guys). But neither they nor we will improve who we are or what we do by "defending our turf" or deciding where we fly based on "getting back" at someone. Unfortunately, we usually don't get to work for people who understand that.
 
citrus jock said:
I think that, to a certain extent, all majors have their hands full with low cost competition, and all low cost carriers have their hands full with the majors recovering. If my prediction about MSP comes true, I have no doubt that NW will "defend its turf" (whether in MSP, or in MEM with Frontier). Another possibility is that we add a few more new non-stops in MSP, DTW, and MKE (the thought being that you try to hurt NW a little bit "all over", not allowing the defense of their turf to be concentrated in one place).

One thing I feel that's important to remember is that "defending one's turf" is a phrase used to describe what actions NW will take; it is completely separate from, and irrelevant to the traveling public's response to the action. IOW, if NW added 50 flts./day in MSP, and travelers feel that the service is unreliable (due to recent negative PR), or if they've had previous bad experiences on NW, then all NW is doing is flying a bunch of empty planes around. They could initially keep ticket prices (and therfore revenue and yield) down with the increased # of seats and fare wars, but in the end, someone who travels regularly is usually more than willing to pay more for more reliable and friendly service. That's not to say that I've bought in to the whole "it's an illegal union action/the pilots are calling in sick" thing (I haven't). But in a case like this, the truth and/or what I believe has little to do with what the traveling public thinks, especially after being bombarded by airline industry articles in the media that are, more often than not, so far from the truth that it boggles the mind. I once read an article describing TCAS, that said, and I'm quoting, "Pilots tend to ignore TCAS warnings when they (pilots) are on the ground". :blink:

I think that NW is a fine airline, and I know several pilots over there (all good guys). But neither they nor we will improve who we are or what we do by "defending our turf" or deciding where we fly based on "getting back" at someone. Unfortunately, we usually don't get to work for people who understand that.
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I'm going to go out on a limb here.... Thinking is.. IND has a better shot as a Mini-Hub. The Humphrey(MSP)Terminal does not have that many gates we could get to establish that kind of OP. IND is still a few years away from their new Terminal which will be ideal, as long as the traffic is there. Joe has 'unfinished' Business with the ATA/SW fiasco... if he's not retired by then, let him at NW. The best MSP could be is about equal to BWI, and with all Contract Ramp @ MSP, just remember what BWI started as.... and seems to be falling back to. JMOTs.
 
QA4Jet-A said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here.... Thinking is.. IND has a better shot as a Mini-Hub. The Humphrey(MSP)Terminal does not have that many gates we could get to establish that kind of OP. IND is still a few years away from their new Terminal which will be ideal, as long as the traffic is there. Joe has 'unfinished' Business with the ATA/SW fiasco... if he's not retired by then, let him at NW. The best MSP could be is about equal to BWI, and with all Contract Ramp @ MSP, just remember what BWI started as.... and seems to be falling back to. JMOTs.
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IND is now what I think MSP will become soon. We don't have a ton of flts. at IND, but we serve a fair amount of different cities non-stop, allowing for increased frequency as we're able. I think the company wants to get back at NW right now. We're only flying to ATL, MCO, and MDW from MSP. I look for 3-5 more non-stops announced soon (probably only 1 flt/day) as "revenge". Most/all of that growth could come immediately, as the pilot's lines of flying have already seen the usual seasonal reduction. MSP being equal to BWI would be a pretty big deal, but we don't have the resources to do that all right now.

I do think we'll grow IND some more, but doing so doesn't get back at NW. Even if it did, the new terminal is far enough off that it doesn't fit the "revenge, right now" MO. I just hope that whatever entity is in charge of building the new terminal doesn't try to recoup the construction costs too quickly (in the form of ridiculously high landing fees/PFCs/etc.), or that place will turn into a ghost town quickly.
 
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