American Airlines and Labor Negotiations

[WeAAsles]

yes, it was only a matter of time that the frackers/shale people were coming back to wreck havoc upon opec and pump up airline profits.

we knew this, the fear mongers used the spike for their own reasons. unfortunately, aa also jumped on this to cut ord-asia flights...

aa has a dilemma, ua is fighting us on the ord-china routes and 'dormancy' issues. with oil more likely to get to $50/bbl than $55/bbl, this may force aa to resume the china flights? aa currently uses one 787 for an ord-cun route and i don't believe we bought these super-duper fuel efficient wide-body planes to fly this route.

it seems as though every time you peel back a layer of the aa onion, it's as if our mngt. team is mediocre, at best.

aa purchases around 1 billion gallons of jet fuel every quarter. a little over 4 billion gallons a year. if jet fuel falls .50 cents lower over a year, the company will have an additional $2 billion dollars in profits in one year, that came out of nowhere. the assoc. needs to know this as the mediator needs to know this, as airline analysts already know this.

my suggestion to aa - hedge 5% of fuel costs to fix those costs to ord-asia. if you can't make money flying to china with jet fuel at $1.80 a gallon, something is seriously wrong.

other suggestion to aa and the twu - if aa and the usps want to randomly drug test FSCs, then the twu should agree to modifyt testing, only if aa agrees to give us back mail work. no mail = no tests, see you in court. maybe even tie lav service to this. no mail & lavs = no tests.

I just watched a host on CNBC ask the CEO of DHL when they’re going to cut the fuel surcharges for their customers? You always know the second oil starts to drop people are screaming bloody murder for the Airlines to give them a break. With load factors as strong as they are for the entire industry I wouldn't be in a rush to give them any relief myself.

I’m still not expecting any carriers in the industry to start the hedging contest up again? Of course if one buckles the floodgates are gonna open.

I don’t think they want randoms for Fleet Service actually because the net would only wind up capturing small fish (Young, lower paid employees) over anyone that could be stuffed and displayed on a wall. Nah I think this testing is exactly what I heard. Just clearing up the discrepancies.

 

[Colonel.Ramp]

yes, it was only a matter of time that the frackers/shale people were coming back to wreck havoc upon opec and pump up airline profits.

we knew this, the fear mongers used the spike for their own reasons. unfortunately, aa also jumped on this to cut ord-asia flights...

aa has a dilemma, ua is fighting us on the ord-china routes and 'dormancy' issues. with oil more likely to get to $50/bbl than $55/bbl, this may force aa to resume the china flights? aa currently uses one 787 for an ord-cun route and i don't believe we bought these super-duper fuel efficient wide-body planes to fly this route.

it seems as though every time you peel back a layer of the aa onion, it's as if our mngt. team is mediocre, at best.

aa purchases around 1 billion gallons of jet fuel every quarter. a little over 4 billion gallons a year. if jet fuel falls .50 cents lower over a year, the company will have an additional $2 billion dollars in profits in one year, that came out of nowhere. the assoc. needs to know this as the mediator needs to know this, as airline analysts already know this.

my suggestion to aa - hedge 5% of fuel costs to fix those costs to ord-asia. if you can't make money flying to china with jet fuel at $1.80 a gallon, something is seriously wrong.

other suggestion to aa and the twu - if aa and the usps want to randomly drug test FSCs, then the twu should agree to modify testing, only if aa agrees to give us back mail work. no mail = no tests, see you in court. maybe even tie lav service to this. no mail & lavs = no tests.

They are using the wring plane on that route. Using 787's while UA is utilizing 777's makes no sense and has caused ORD to be AA's 5th most profitable hub instead of being top 3.

Good points on using this incident to get mail back.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

I just watched a host on CNBC ask the CEO of DHL when they’re going to cut the fuel surcharges for their customers? You always know the second oil starts to drop people are screaming bloody murder for the Airlines to give them a break. With load factors as strong as they are for the entire industry I wouldn't be in a rush to give them any relief myself.

I’m still not expecting any carriers in the industry to start the hedging contest up again? Of course if one buckles the floodgates are gonna open.

I don’t think they want randoms for Fleet Service actually because the net would only wind up capturing small fish (Young, lower paid employees) over anyone that could be stuffed and displayed on a wall. Nah I think this testing is exactly what I heard. Just clearing up the discrepancies.

no, no chance and only an a$$hole airline like frontier or spirit would would cut fares/eliminate fuel surcharges to celebrate lower fuel. opec meets next month and there could be a bounce up in oil. fares are historically cheap...the public wants to fly for free and then complain about it.

like i said, aa will purchase over 4 billion gallons of jet fuel (just mainline) for 2018 and cheaper fuel dramatically inflates our profits. i look at it as maybe we'll get 5%-6% higher wages than ua on DOS....delta employees look at this and say; "maybe as a ramp agent, i'll crack a $20k profit sharing check next year". i know i would be thinking that. good times, especially for dl.

as far as the testing and big fish, they caught a big fish here awhile back. i guess aa believes in catch and release, he got his job back. i know the guy, he's ok...i wouldn't understand random testing and then coming up dirty has different results for different people.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

They are using the wring plane on that route. Using 787's while UA is utilizing 777's makes no sense and has caused ORD to be AA's 5th most profitable hub instead of being top 3.

Good points on using this incident to get mail back.

sad times here. 25 years ago, i'd see 7-8 aa planes on consecutive intl. gates; 767s, md-11s and a 757. today, i see ua with 8-9 wide-bodies on consecutive intl. gates and aa with a 737 here and there. disgrace for the usa's #1 airport for connectivity.

after halting ord-china, aa has 4 787s and on some days, 6 (nrt only a few days a week now) 787s to play with. i guess the best they could come up with is using a 787 for ord-cun.

really, really questionable management. i guess running america west out of phx wasn't too complicated.

 

[WeAAsles]

like i said, aa will purchase over 4 billion gallons of jet fuel (just mainline) for 2018 and cheaper fuel dramatically inflates our profits. i look at it as maybe we'll get 5%-6% higher wages than ua on DOS....delta employees look at this and say; "maybe as a ramp agent, i'll crack a $20k profit sharing check next year". i know i would be thinking that. good times, especially for dl.

They have brought back the old Profit Sharing payout formula over at Delta for next year full now so it has to be something considered against AA Management’s stingy percentage.

as far as the testing and big fish, they caught a big fish here awhile back. i guess aa believes in catch and release, he got his job back. i know the guy, he's ok...i wouldn't understand random testing and then coming up dirty has different results for different people.

If they ever implemented randoms without some kind of Local or Federal guidelines it would have to be done very carefully as to not be suspect to targeted draws. I’m sure the Company doesn’t like the expense of those FAA mandated tests so again the reason why I don’t ever see it coming our way voluntarily.

But if there were randoms I don’t think there would be any second chances for treatment anymore as all the people with a problem would need to come forward (EAP) in advance and go through a program if they can’t quit on their own.

Essentially you come up dirty, you’re out.

(How does it work for you AMT’s if you come out dirty?)

 

[Colonel.Ramp]

sad times here. 25 years ago, i'd see 7-8 aa planes on consecutive intl. gates; 767s, md-11s and a 757. today, i see ua with 8-9 wide-bodies on consecutive intl. gates and aa with a 737 here and there. disgrace for the usa's #1 airport for connectivity.

after halting ord-china, aa has 4 787s and on some days, 6 (nrt only a few days a week now) 787s to play with. i guess the best they could come up with is using a 787 for ord-cun.

really, really questionable management. i guess running america west out of phx wasn't too complicated.

I suppose it wasn't that complicated. Perhaps this is why Scott Kirby ran for the hills. Maybe he saw dysfunction with the upper echelon that nobody wanted to acknowledge at AA. He sure isnt pulling any punches. AA seems to be the one in third place. Even Delta has been following some of UA's moves.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

They have brought back the old Profit Sharing payout formula over at Delta for next year full now so it has to be something considered against AA Management’s stingy percentage.

to me, the biggest fear for aa mngt. having to share more of their profits with employees. if oil does stay around $50-$55/bbl, aa will easily be back in $4-$5 billion a year profit area.

to avoid this, all the company has to do is pay us a robust premium over dl-ua - along with other compensation, leave scope alone and clean up the medical.

i'm going to bet the pilots and F/As will try to contractualize profit sharing, obviously more than the current 5% pre-tax.

 

[1986Mekanic]

(How does it work for you AMT’s if you come out dirty?)

I'm not sure how many times one can ring the bell. 1x for sure and then come back I believe on conditional reinstatement (do an approved treatment program).

I've been doing randoms since USN 1982, then airline since 86. I grimace everytime thinking THEY will jack it up, but they never have.

I have a pretty good idea what I'll be doing day one when I retire.

 

[Talos]

yes, it was only a matter of time that the frackers/shale people were coming back to wreck havoc upon opec and pump up airline profits.

we knew this, the fear mongers used the spike for their own reasons. unfortunately, aa also jumped on this to cut ord-asia flights...

aa has a dilemma, ua is fighting us on the ord-china routes and 'dormancy' issues. with oil more likely to get to $50/bbl than $55/bbl, this may force aa to resume the china flights? aa currently uses one 787 for an ord-cun route and i don't believe we bought these super-duper fuel efficient wide-body planes to fly this route.

it seems as though every time you peel back a layer of the aa onion, it's as if our mngt. team is mediocre, at best.

aa purchases around 1 billion gallons of jet fuel every quarter. a little over 4 billion gallons a year. if jet fuel falls .50 cents lower over a year, the company will have an additional $2 billion dollars in profits in one year, that came out of nowhere. the assoc. needs to know this as the mediator needs to know this, as airline analysts already know this.

my suggestion to aa - hedge 5% of fuel costs to fix those costs to ord-asia. if you can't make money flying to china with jet fuel at $1.80 a gallon, something is seriously wrong.

other suggestion to aa and the twu - if aa and the usps want to randomly drug test FSCs, then the twu should agree to modify testing, only if aa agrees to give us back mail work. no mail = no tests, see you in court. maybe even tie lav service to this. no mail & lavs = no tests.

I agree with you that this mgmt team does seem weak in multiple areas. The action in oil pricing has been really strange and it appears it will go lower in the 40's. The ord china route being dormant is a mistake IMO. I'm starting to wonder if the Kirby fellow may have been the brains of the operation prior to his departure. The lower cost of fuel will again boost profit and make mgmt look good, but the stuff they come up with such as scanning bags all over the place has me thinking there has to be a better way. Maybe ought to drug test mgmt.

 

[737823]

Most of the time it is because of our union. We have time limits but the union mutually waives them.

Wasn’t Robbed’s 2009 grievance settled in 2015?!?! And it wasn’t until a certain organizer summer 2013 got involved and made a few phone calls to get the ball rolling

Josh

 

[Buck]

I predict that in the near future the price of gasoline is going to drop drastically due to the entry of the Electric Cars into the major automobile marketplace.

How will that affect the marketplace of Jet Fuel? Once the gasoline market has an excess of fuel, will the market shift to a Diesel / Industrial or a Jet Fuel market where will the Jet Fuel price go?

 

[CremaDiLimone]

I agree with you that this mgmt team does seem weak in multiple areas. The action in oil pricing has been really strange and it appears it will go lower in the 40's. The ord china route being dormant is a mistake IMO. I'm starting to wonder if the Kirby fellow may have been the brains of the operation prior to his departure. The lower cost of fuel will again boost profit and make mgmt look good, but the stuff they come up with such as scanning bags all over the place has me thinking there has to be a better way. Maybe ought to drug test mgmt.

agree on all.

- really low oil means there's a world-wide economic downturn and consequently, less fliers - especially premium. what is the sweet spot for airlines & exporting nations, companies?? $46/bbl?

- saudi wants oil at $80/bbl. saudi exporting would be profitable even if oil was at $9/bbl due to the ease of extraction from it's deposits. russia and canada need higher oil prices, higher than what american frackers/shale people need oil to be, $55-$65/bbl range.

all in all, i agree with parker and the golden age for airlines, going forward. the shale oil revolution has changed our industry. too bad this all didn't happen 35 years ago.

- ord-asia. ord to china was 2 cities, 2 flights a day. peking and shanghai. nrt is only 3 days a week now. wtf is going on?? we flew to fra for years, gone. same with arn and zrh, gone. china east, hainan, japan airlines, lufthansa, united, sas and swiss must lose billions flying these city pairs.

lower fuel prices will only paper over the cracks. it does look like aa is going after the frontier/spirit type flier. 737s and 787s flying to cun.

dl has surpassed us in revenue and united earned more than us, off less revenue than us. there's a problem.

 

[T5towbar]

I agree with you that this mgmt team does seem weak in multiple areas. The action in oil pricing has been really strange and it appears it will go lower in the 40's. The ord china route being dormant is a mistake IMO. I'm starting to wonder if the Kirby fellow may have been the brains of the operation prior to his departure. The lower cost of fuel will again boost profit and make mgmt look good, but the stuff they come up with such as scanning bags all over the place has me thinking there has to be a better way. Maybe ought to drug test mgmt.

Sidebar for a second:
From what I've heard, starting next year, the DOT is going to be changing some metrics on the MBR's. It will be based on the percentages of bags scanned, instead of pax complaints. So bag scanning at all points will be stressed more than ever. Have you guys heard any about this?

 

[robbedagain]

T5. I have not heard of that but again anything like that from the feds would not shock nor surprise me . On the flip side at AA in DC we scan every bag .So i wonder if theyre gonna use metrics off the scanner per flight .N if so how hard will mgmt..in particular the hard line ones will come down on leads n ramp agents

 

[Kev3188]

You transfer out of BWI?