IMHO,...Time to take this Article(posted by FWAAA) SERIOUS.
Dealing strictly with Facts here;
They ADMIT that they MET, and TALKED with a GAG order in place. To me, that spells SERIOUS,(would,nt you Agree) ??
That TELLS ME, that AA's FIRST reaction to this genuine Merger Mania, IS TO "ACT", and not sit Idly by(Would'nt you agree) ???
Though I can't prove it, It would be a "safe bet" I feel, that every LLC'er would be recalled before any deal went down(and probably the ones that "fell off" the books also), because as some one above pointed out, they would'nt want to go before the FEDS with "that" hanging over their heads !!
Yes, ...obviously the APA/APFA expressed doubt, due to "9/11", which Impacted TWA, but that does NOT PROVE that those Unions would NOT play along, if a GOOD deal presented itself.
(Notice I left out the TWU.....Because the TWU is the same as AA :down: )
Now on to the "possibilities"
UA/DL/CO/NW/WN/US/AS/.....(I doubt Jet Blue/Air Tran/Midwest and Frontier would be SERIOUS contenders)
So,..........Here goes;
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UA...................Too BIG, Feds would NEVER sign off on it.....so SCRATCH UAL(though from MY perspective, I'd love to see it. That way .."donttouchthebeauty" and I would be routing for the same team.
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DL.....................Brings NOTHING to AA's table !....................SCRATCH DL !
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CO....................Possible.(lets set them aside for a moment)
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"BIG RED".............POSSIBLE...(GOD I only WISH...RIGHT FWAAA !)...(Lets set them aside for a moment)
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WN.......................POSSIBLE(HIGHLY UNLIKELY...BUT POSSIBLE)...(lets set them aside for a moment)
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LCC........................"N F W " !!...(AA would do a deal with AMTRAK First)
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AS...........................POSSIBLE..............(lets set them aside for a Moment)
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BA............................POSSIBLE................(Lets set them aside for a moment)
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In Summary (Sub Total-1);
NW-CO-WN-AS-BA
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BA.................TOO MUCH UNKNOWN HERE(maybe a few years down the road)...........SCRATCH BA !
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AS..................STILL A POSSIBILITY.(But behind NW-CO-WN).......................SCRATCH AS (FOR NOW)
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WN..................POSSIBLE.(Plenty of 737's, but all domestic)(longshot at best)..(SCRATCH WN)
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NW or CO.. ??
Up to now, I've applied pure LOGIC to the FACT, I repeat FACT, that AA has Signaled That It's first Instinct is to not sit Idly by !!!!
With CO, you get MUCHO 767/757 and relatively soon 787, plus A/E could fly ALL of AA + CO regional needs(since CO jettisoned CO/EXP)
BIG RED,....You get ASIA-ASIA-ASIA, plus Early 787's.
1. AA makes a HIGHER(False Bid) for NW, to drive up the $$$ on DL. Something AA is famous for, OR they Actually go after NW. But as we see now, NW brings "baggage", meaning the MSP/Minneapolis $$$ "responsibility/Wrong a/c types/Incompatable HUBS to ORD, and a VERY senior heavily Unionized work force.
In comparison, CO(after DL results in NW not having veto power over CO) brings in NON-UNION RAMP/AGENT/RES work forces, a KILLER EWR HUB/(bye-bye CLE....IAH a Focus city)
Though WN/AS and BA "Might be" possibilities, USING PURE LOGIC, and MOST IMPORTANTLY the "FACT" that AA "talked" to it's Unions,..........and "FACT", that AA + CO HAD Management discussions,...It's APPARENTLY CLEAR that as FWAAA pointed out a few day ago, Continental makes THE MOST sense !
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Respectfully,
NH/BB's