AMR expects Q2 loss because.....

[quote The simple fact is that AA's costs are the highest industry. [/quote]

How does the TOP HEAVY AA MGMT data compare to other airlines?
Isn't Mgmt and support staff including business consultantcy cost included in those figures?
How many senior VP's do we have at AA now? What is the total of their bonuses?
How much other waste is included and thrown in with the labor cost numbers that you use to compare?

Seems to me, that, unless you break it down to really separate union labor from the rest, then its all fuzzy math.
And that makes the blame game issue moot company propaganda, right?
 
Am sick and tire of how labor gets all the blame.
I am not really sure if AA labor are or are not the highest
in the industry. I know that my pay check does not feel like
it is . With that said. I really do not care anymore.
I want a raise. And if it means the company goes bankrupt
six months later be it.
What I think that we need at AMR is whole new team
at the top. I think our CEO and the whole executive
leadership has lost any kind of credibility. The way
they have been rewarding themselves for the past few years and then
wanting to blame labor for all the problems the company has
is rediculous. Change starts at the top. Unless our executive
leads by example I can not predict a very bright future for
this company. But the sad reality is that they do not care.
And they wonder why the people at the bottom do not either.
 
Am sick and tire of how labor gets all the blame.
I am not really sure if AA labor are or are not the highest
in the industry. I know that my pay check does not feel like
it is . With that said. I really do not care anymore.
I want a raise. And if it means the company goes bankrupt
six months later be it.
What I think that we need at AMR is whole new team
at the top. I think our CEO and the whole executive
leadership has lost any kind of credibility. The way
they have been rewarding themselves for the past few years and then
wanting to blame labor for all the problems the company has
is rediculous. Change starts at the top. Unless our executive
leads by example I can not predict a very bright future for
this company. But the sad reality is that they do not care.
And they wonder why the people at the bottom do not either.


"AA's labor expenses are the highest in the industry", Thats what we are told, but when it comes to whether or not AA can produce ASMs competatively or not, it means absolutely nothing because AA has a labor intensive business model. While other carriers pay someone else to pay someone else to provide the labor, therefore cutting the "labor costs" without really cutting the cost of producing the ASMs, merely moving labor costs into a different category, AA does it in house. A lot of the labor cost has to do with our in house overhaul, I asked Arpey, at the end of the day does it cost more to do it in house than to outsource. Arpey dodged the question by saying "The jury is still out on that". That told me what I needed to know, it doesnt, thats why other carriers are reconsidering their maintenance business models as well.
 
"AA's labor expenses are the highest in the industry", Thats what we are told, but when it comes to whether or not AA can produce ASMs competatively or not, it means absolutely nothing because AA has a labor intensive business model.

So if one excepts the proposition that AA needs to have competitive costs and a competitive business model in order to survive, then what are you suggesting is the answer? A less labor-intensive business model? That, to me, would mean layoffs. Is that preferable?

While other carriers pay someone else to pay someone else to provide the labor, therefore cutting the "labor costs" without really cutting the cost of producing the ASMs, merely moving labor costs into a different category, AA does it in house.

And that sounds good in theory - but here's the problem: even when you add up the different categories, AA is still not competitive. I guess what I'm saying is that - regardless of how the dollars are accounted for, and which bucket they're put in, at the end of the day, all of that added up still costs more per unit of capacity at AMR than at other airlines. By my math - correct me if I'm wrong - when you add together the labor + maintenance expense reported by the 5 network airlines for 2Q09, AA's labor+maintenance unit cost is the highest among them excepting UA. And that's just the 5 network carriers - if you compare AA to huge competitors like B6, WN, F9, FL, etc., I'm guessing the disparity would be greater.

thats why other carriers are reconsidering their maintenance business models as well.

How are other carriers reconsidering their maintenance business models? They all seem to be satisfied enough with the outsourced overhauls and allegedly "less labor intensive" business models today that none of them have yet switched back to doing that work in-house. It is a bit telling that AMR is now the only U.S. carrier doing all of its overhauls in-house, no?
 
So if one excepts the proposition that AA needs to have competitive costs and a competitive business model in order to survive, then what are you suggesting is the answer? A less labor-intensive business model? That, to me, would mean layoffs. Is that preferable?

You dont appear to be getting the picture, AA has a different business model, you dont take item by item to say which model is best you take the end result. AA's CASMs are competitive according to AA for the service they sell. The higher labor costs offset what what they would pay if they paid some vendor to provide the labor. UALs total costs for maintenance increased when they sent out their OH.

AA could probably do with a smaller workforce, but layoffs would be unwise. They are losing enough people as it is and it would be better to buy out the older guys than to lay off the already trained younger guys who will likely permanently leave the industry. Even with 9% unemployment the rate of decline for recall is exceptionally high, thats why the TA has unlimited recall.

And that sounds good in theory - but here's the problem: even when you add up the different categories, AA is still not competitive. I guess what I'm saying is that - regardless of how the dollars are accounted for, and which bucket they're put in, at the end of the day, all of that added up still costs more per unit of capacity at AMR than at other airlines. By my math - correct me if I'm wrong - when you add together the labor + maintenance expense reported by the 5 network airlines for 2Q09, AA's labor+maintenance unit cost is the highest among them excepting UA. And that's just the 5 network carriers - if you compare AA to huge competitors like B6, WN, F9, FL, etc., I'm guessing the disparity would be greater.

Well what you need to look at are the items where there should be no real difference, such as what they pay for leases to termianls, aircraft, how much they spend building new terminals, refurbishing existsing terminals, new cabins, winglets and other expenses. You would also have to factor in the fleet types, having a varied fleet drives up costs, having first class drives up costs (less ASMs), some of these things allow AA to generate more revenue but some only look at the costs. The fact is that AA brings in billions more than they used to, they outsource less and have fewer employees. All that money isnt going to its workforce , somebody is getting it and that where the cost problem is.


How are other carriers reconsidering their maintenance business models? They all seem to be satisfied enough with the outsourced overhauls and allegedly "less labor intensive" business models today that none of them have yet switched back to doing that work in-house. It is a bit telling that AMR is now the only U.S. carrier doing all of its overhauls in-house, no?

AA is not the only carrier that does overhaul, they do more than any onther carrier. There's a difference. Jet Blue is building a maintenance base in Florida, thats what they told their mechanics, apparantly they arent that happy with the quality of the work from El Salvador (staffing in New York is a problem, some of the mechanics are only staying so they can go to Florida) and they are concerned about new legislation on foreign maintenance. UPS offered language, and $46.99/hr to bring more work in house as well. Those are two examples. Right now the FAA is focused on AA, the other carriers are nervously waiting for their turn to come under scrutiny.
 
For a competitive industry why are the major competitors showing such a large 2nd Quarter profit and AA is expected to show a loss?


Delta posts $467M profit in 2nd quarter



UAL Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2010 Results

$430 Million 2Q Net Profit Excluding Charges, Largest Since 1999

$273 Million 2Q10 GAAP Net Profit; $245 Million Improvement from Prior Year

26.9% Consolidated Unit Revenue Growth Year over Year

Generated $874 Million in Operating Cash Flow

No. 1 On-Time Carrier Among 5 Largest U.S. Global Carriers For 1H 2010 Based on Preliminary Industry Results†
 
For a competitive industry why are the major competitors showing such a large 2nd Quarter profit and AA is expected to show a loss?

I can point to at least three possible reasons:

Poor management. Arpey is not as innovative as Crandall or Carty, and it appears to be affecting the revenue.

Labor Cost disadvantage compared to DL and UA. No matter how much Bob tries to explain it away, AA's pilots and FAs simply make more money for less flying than at most other airlines. Until DL and UA costs catch up to AA's costs, those airlines will generate large profits at the same time AA shows losses.

Potential passenger bookaway. Listening to FAs and pilots (and even the TWU) bang the "let's go on strike" drum may be responsible for a part of AA's lagging revenue performance compared to DL and UA. The general public tends to be stupid and probably has no idea how drawn out the process is under the RLA. Still, if they book away, revenue suffers.
 
I can point to at least three possible reasons:

Poor management. Arpey is not as innovative as Crandall or Carty, and it appears to be affecting the revenue.

Labor Cost disadvantage compared to DL and UA. No matter how much Bob tries to explain it away, AA's pilots and FAs simply make more money for less flying than at most other airlines. Until DL and UA costs catch up to AA's costs, those airlines will generate large profits at the same time AA shows losses.

Potential passenger bookaway. Listening to FAs and pilots (and even the TWU) bang the "let's go on strike" drum may be responsible for a part of AA's lagging revenue performance compared to DL and UA. The general public tends to be stupid and probably has no idea how drawn out the process is under the RLA. Still, if they book away, revenue suffers.



To be honest, I don't see how AMR is going to keep up with the others. With regards to fleet, labor, and I am not really a fan of their plan to focus on the 5 cities or whatever they call it. Plkaces like LAX - ORD - JFK, is a losing battle for AMR. JFK is saturated with foreign airlines and you are going head to head with DAL and CAL at EWR, which are all very well established. ORD, well it will be going up against UAL which will now have a better route network and larger presence across the globe. LAX, another losing battle, UAL and DAL have a better foothold at LAX. DFW and MIA are AMRs 2 strongpoints, kind of like PHL and CLt with USAIRWAYS. You cant go up against your mega competition at these airports (JFK LAX ORD) with subpar route network and higher costs and expect to win, thats just my opinion.
 
I can point to at least three possible reasons:

Poor management. Arpey is not as innovative as Crandall or Carty, and it appears to be affecting the revenue.

Labor Cost disadvantage compared to DL and UA. No matter how much Bob tries to explain it away, AA's pilots and FAs simply make more money for less flying than at most other airlines. Until DL and UA costs catch up to AA's costs, those airlines will generate large profits at the same time AA shows losses.

Potential passenger bookaway. Listening to FAs and pilots (and even the TWU) bang the "let's go on strike" drum may be responsible for a part of AA's lagging revenue performance compared to DL and UA. The general public tends to be stupid and probably has no idea how drawn out the process is under the RLA. Still, if they book away, revenue suffers.


If AA can not report a profit this quater; whatever the reason might be; Its time for the board
of directors of AMR to quick the management team to the curve. Our current management team
does not know how to manage an airline or do not want to manage an airline. It time for new
leadership.
 
Attempting to defend AA's costs on the basis of being "more labor intensive" misses the point that AA is no different from any other company in the US in that it must make money - and the bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE - and includes all costs, regardless of whether contract or not.

AA's revenue generation has never been the problem - up to this point. AA does a very good job of finding and going after premium revenue - but when AA is pulling back int'l flying to Europe in key competitive markets like ORD while UA is adding, when DL is adding service in key NYC markets, and when AA is pulling back from connecting traffic throughout the US and focusing on just 5 major markets, the results are bound to add up fairly quickly to AA being uncompetitive in network coverage - while DL and UA/CO will have truly global coverage - and network coverage absolutely has been shown to translate into revenue premiums. The whole reason for mergers and ATI/joint ventures (which are really revenue side only mergers) is to compete effectively on the basis of size.... there is no example of a successful niche network airline. Even YX which filled that bill on a somewhat regional basis has failed. AS realized they had to grow into the major leagues instead of being a niche regional airline.

There isn't evidence that passengers are booking away either. AA's traffic is on par w/ other carriers and fits AA's network.

The simple facti s that AA has a 15% cost disadvantage to DL and CO which have almost identical costs and 8% to UA - which is still AA's largest network competitor. A cost advantage of that magnitude leaves AA with one choice and one choice only - shrink the airline to fit the locations where AA can successfully compete - which is why AA is focusing on just 5 key cities- incidentally where AA is relatively large and where the low cost threat is lower than in other parts of AA's network.

But it doesn't stop competitors like UA and DL from going after AA - which they are doing. And unlike DL and UA, there is no viable merger strategy for AA which involves bulking up to increase the advantage of those carriers relative to AA.

The simple fact is that AA MUST have competitive costs in order to survive - and it must come from labor because THAT is where AA's cost disadvantage exists. AA can't outsource any number of parts of its operation to lower cost providers - and like it or not that is reality. Key AA employee groups don't work as much for the same money as other airline employees.


I agree that AA mgmt is not being as aggressive in addressing problems - but your job as employees is to convince the Board of that.... and there is always the option for an employee buyout - if you can really agree that returning AMR to a competitive position is the first and really only goal. UA's ESOP failed because employees decided to use their ownership position to wring every last little bit of wealth from the company.

AA/AMR has about 2 years to turn things around or the combined UA/CO plus DL - which will continue to grow and go after AA markets - will make it nearly impossible for AA to compete as a network carrier in the US. Having a size and cost disadvantage relative to two major competitors will be a virtual death sentence.

The US NEEDS three strong network airlines - and AA should be one of them. It is up to labor and management at AA to figure out what they need to do to make it work.

BTW, of the carriers that have reported so far,
DL had a 10.4% operating margin
UA had a 8.4% operating margin.

CO, AS, and WN are all expected to post double digit operating margins. We will see how they perform.
 
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AMR expects Q2 loss because.....

... they don't dare show a profit with three union contracts unsettled ...
 
How does the TOP HEAVY AA MGMT data compare to other airlines?
Isn't Mgmt and support staff including business consultantcy cost included in those figures?
How many senior VP's do we have at AA now? What is the total of their bonuses?
How much other waste is included and thrown in with the labor cost numbers that you use to compare?

Seems to me, that, unless you break it down to really separate union labor from the rest, then its all fuzzy math.
And that makes the blame game issue moot company propaganda, right?
The question I'd really like answered is (since a certain gentleman loved to compare AA to Southwest years ago) how many Senior VPs and other basically non-productive personnel does AA have to support/pay with each aircraft as compared to those airlines which are making money?
 
A

The US NEEDS three strong network airlines - and AA should be one of them. It is up to labor and management at AA to figure out what they need to do to make it work.

The company figured it out some time ago....Labor gives and management gets!