AMR stock at $2.43/shr

[chris perry]

This place reminds me of enron and worldcom... same morals,same outcome...

 

[TIME FOR CHANGE]

Great! We can join the former union NWA, UAL, US Airways, and Alaska Airlines mechanics that now work proudly for $25 and hour at TIMCO, AAR, and ATS! Better yet, maybe we could get a killer job with Plane Techs working three month contracts all other the country! My wife and kids will understand.

Welcome to the world of Aviation... 😀

 

[eolesen]

Even if AA had declared bankruptcy in 2003 and gutted the contracts, there's no guarantee that what they attained in S1113 would have been enough to offset losses right now.

AA could have very well wound up like USAir and Continental -- declaring twice within a relatively short timeframe because they didn't have the clairvoyance to predict the fuel run-up. It's also likely that any deeper cuts in 2003 still would have been leapfrogged by whatever US, UA and DL did in 2004 and 2005.

Why, we have let all of the secretaries and mail clerks at CenterPork know that if financial results don't improve in 4th quarter, we will cut their vacation days in half, if not eliminate vacations entirely for all peons.

Hate to break it to you, but secretaries were pretty much wiped out in the mid 90's, which is when email finally found its way to the masses. By the time I was a manager, I shared one with three other managers, and she was eventually RIF'd in 2003.

And mail clerks at HDQ? Long gone. Outsourced to Pitney Bowes, IIRC, who was already running Printing Services (outsourced in the 90's)...

 

[Hopeful]

Even if AA had declared bankruptcy in 2003 and gutted the contracts, there's no guarantee that what they attained in S1113 would have been enough to offset losses right now.

AA could have very well wound up like USAir and Continental -- declaring twice within a relatively short timeframe because they didn't have the clairvoyance to predict the fuel run-up. It's also likely that any deeper cuts in 2003 still would have been leapfrogged by whatever US, UA and DL did in 2004 and 2005.



Hate to break it to you, but secretaries were pretty much wiped out in the mid 90's, which is when email finally found its way to the masses. By the time I was a manager, I shared one with three other managers, and she was eventually RIF'd in 2003.

And mail clerks at HDQ? Long gone. Outsourced to Pitney Bowes, IIRC, who was already running Printing Services (outsourced in the 90's)...

The irony of these latest developments, (or hypocrisy of it all) is that all we have been hearing is that AMR screwed up royally by NOT having filed CH.11 when it was all the rage. According to some, it's top management's biggest (and according to others, ONLY) blunder.
Well, here we are folks! AMR's possible and almost certain filing for bankruptcy dominated yesterday's business news everywhere you turned. YOU WOULD THINK WALL STREET WOULD BE HAPPY AMR IS FINALLY GOING TO FILE AND SCREW THE WORKERS. CREDITORS AND SHAREHOLDERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You would think the stock would have shot up simply on the news so investors would have cut their losses. Yes, I know in CH.11 the current stock would be less valuable than used toilet paper.
But this should be welcome news for those who say AMR is long overdue to reorganize and screw labor even further.

There's just no pleasing some people!

But I do agree, E.....This could have very well been AA's 2nd trip to the bankruptcy court!

 

[jimntx]

Hate to break it to you, but secretaries were pretty much wiped out in the mid 90's, which is when email finally found its way to the masses. By the time I was a manager, I shared one with three other managers, and she was eventually RIF'd in 2003.

And mail clerks at HDQ? Long gone. Outsourced to Pitney Bowes, IIRC, who was already running Printing Services (outsourced in the 90's)...

It's called a joke. Levity? Humor? Recognize any terms here, E? I could have used the FSMs, but you would have been one of the only non-flight-attendants to know what that means.

 

[FWAAA]

The irony of these latest developments, (or hypocrisy of it all) is that all we have been hearing is that AMR screwed up royally by NOT having filed CH.11 when it was all the rage. According to some, it's top management's biggest (and according to others, ONLY) blunder.

Among the management blunders following September 11, 2001 (leaving aside decisions that were made prior to that in the era of record profits like the new JFK terminal and remodel of LAX T4 and the MRTC experiment) was the delay in asking/demanding concessions. Carty was optimistic that the industry would quickly recover and even signed the new contracts with the TWU after September 11. IIRC, the new APFA agreement was ratified just prior to September 11. Carty waived his pay for the fourth quarter of 2001 and the other top execs took paycuts for that quarter but even their pay bounced back for 2002.

And yes, as cruel and cold-hearted as it sounds, avoiding bankruptcy as if it's the hallmark of shame may go down as Carty's/Arpey's biggest mistake. Bankruptcy (with larger paycuts/more productivity improvements) might have resulted in more short-term pain for workers but perhaps would have positioned AMR for a merger with one of the now-merged airlines, which might have resulted in a stronger AA right now. Plus, deeper concessions would have resulted in more attrition. The relative light attrition over the past 8.5 years is an indication that the pain, while real, wasn't painful enough. More attrition would have meant faster recalls and perhaps more new-hires off the street in the past eight years, further lowering the total labor costs today.

Avoding Ch 11 in 2003 benefitted one group: the gamblers who bought AMR in late 2002/early 2003 and made a killing when it quickly climbed to its eventual peak of $41/sh in early 2007.

Another possible managment failure might have been AA's reluctance to outsource its overhaul years ago the way nearly every other airline has done. Bob Owens has claimed that it worked out ok for those who did it early but that there's insufficient outsource capacity now - essentially, AA delayed too long. Dunno if Owens is correct, but if he is, and the MROs are now fully booked doing overhauls for the other airlines and have no slack to do overhauls for AA, then he's identified yet another massive management blunder. If you wait until Friday evening to try to get a reservation at the hip restaurant for Friday night, you've screwed up, especially on Valentine's Day. Perhaps AA waited too long.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Among the management blunders following September 11, 2001 (leaving aside decisions that were made prior to that in the era of record profits like the new JFK terminal and remodel of LAX T4 and the MRTC experiment) was the delay in asking/demanding concessions. Carty was optimistic that the industry would quickly recover and even signed the new contracts with the TWU after September 11. IIRC, the new APFA agreement was ratified just prior to September 11. Carty waived his pay for the fourth quarter of 2001 and the other top execs took paycuts for that quarter but even their pay bounced back for 2002.

And yes, as cruel and cold-hearted as it sounds, avoiding bankruptcy as if it's the hallmark of shame may go down as Carty's/Arpey's biggest mistake. Bankruptcy (with larger paycuts/more productivity improvements) might have resulted in more short-term pain for workers but perhaps would have positioned AMR for a merger with one of the now-merged airlines, which might have resulted in a stronger AA right now. Plus, deeper concessions would have resulted in more attrition. The relative light attrition over the past 8.5 years is an indication that the pain, while real, wasn't painful enough. More attrition would have meant faster recalls and perhaps more new-hires off the street in the past eight years, further lowering the total labor costs today.

Avoding Ch 11 in 2003 benefitted one group: the gamblers who bought AMR in late 2002/early 2003 and made a killing when it quickly climbed to its eventual peak of $41/sh in early 2007.

Another possible managment failure might have been AA's reluctance to outsource its overhaul years ago the way nearly every other airline has done. Bob Owens has claimed that it worked out ok for those who did it early but that there's insufficient outsource capacity now - essentially, AA delayed too long. Dunno if Owens is correct, but if he is, and the MROs are now fully booked doing overhauls for the other airlines and have no slack to do overhauls for AA, then he's identified yet another massive management blunder. If you wait until Friday evening to try to get a reservation at the hip restaurant for Friday night, you've screwed up, especially on Valentine's Day. Perhaps AA waited too long.

failing to act decisively after the concessions were granted, yes. There was no need to file for BK after the concessions were granted. Perhaps AA needed to lay off more people post 9/11 but they received as much in cost cuts from labor as other airlines. The notion that AA needed to terminate its pensions is contrary to the reality that DL still has them as do many of the PMCO employees.
.
Labor bears responsbility for failing to grant productivity improvements to allow AA to take advantage of their reduced costs. IF AA had a plan to grow the airline, I am certain AA's labor groups would have agreed to some scope concessions but they understandably aren't going to agree to scope concessions unless there is more than offsetting benefit for the members. And AA needed to make it clear that if they didn't grant scope relief, AA WOULD get it in BK.
Not allowing AA to use its massive maintenance capabilities as a source of insourcing revenue instead of a drag on the company will stand as a major mistake.
AA mgmt was responsible for leading those discussions.... it speaks poorly of AA and its labor leaders that they saw what happened at every other US network airline and somehow thought they could be different. Mgmt needed to provide convincing evidence that AA could win w/o going into BK and labor needed to demonstrate that they could be a true partner in a turnaround that could be accomplished outside of BK.
.
Whether AMR files for BK or not is immaterial... the company is badly damaged as a result of years of dilly dallying and a lack of assertiveness on the part of mgmt to get the company fixed.... and ultimately the employees will pay dearly regardless of whether you argue they should have taken the initiative to recognize the change in the world or whether mgmt should have convinced them.

There will be case studies written about transformation in the airline industry during the 2000s and 2010s. I find it hard to believe that AA can end up as one of the positive case studies... but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[Duke787]

You'll have a hard time explaining that concept to a bootlicking Twu YES voter. This the infamous Twu fear that the company union has used for the past 20+ years to keep the concessions flowing and cowardice in the hearts of it's true wanna believers.

We make the same as UAL mechs and we have a pension plus we're hiring AMT's again. UAL seniority is down to the early 2000's, with no pension, NWA (amfa) mechs working for a variety of different company's making, depends where they are working. The NO voters voted down a $2.81 pay raise (pay alone), during the worst recession sense the depression. The YES voters relized that times are tough, in 2001 when times were good we got a good contract. For all the guys still living 2003, wake up and look around, I suggest you look for a job and see what's out there.

 

[paul1]

We make the same as UAL mechs and we have a pension plus we're hiring AMT's again. UAL seniority is down to the early 2000's, with no pension, NWA (amfa) mechs working for a variety of different company's making, depends where they are working. The NO voters voted down a $2.81 pay raise (pay alone), during the worst recession sense the depression. The YES voters relized that times are tough, in 2001 when times were good we got a good contract. For all the guys still living 2003, wake up and look around, I suggest you look for a job and see what's out there.

hey jerk off Bob is going to get us $45 hr as a matter of fact bob and the boys are meeeting with the company. stay informed!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Duke787]

hey jerk off Bob is going to get us $45 hr as a matter of fact bob and the boys are meeeting with the company. stay informed!!!!!!!!!!

I wish Bob (us) all the luck in the world, but Bob's rhetoric isn't going to sway the more informed people.........BK is not in the near future of AA!!!!!!

 

[AV1]

We make the same as UAL mechs and we have a pension plus we're hiring AMT's again. UAL seniority is down to the early 2000's, with no pension, NWA (amfa) mechs working for a variety of different company's making, depends where they are working. The NO voters voted down a $2.81 pay raise (pay alone), during the worst recession sense the depression. The YES voters relized that times are tough, in 2001 when times were good we got a good contract. For all the guys still living 2003, wake up and look around, I suggest you look for a job and see what's out there.

EXACTLY, Now for the normal response: Company bootlicker, etc., etc., etc. Some need to wake up.

 

[tech2101]

Among the management blunders following September 11, 2001 (leaving aside decisions that were made prior to that in the era of record profits like the new JFK terminal and remodel of LAX T4 and the MRTC experiment) was the delay in asking/demanding concessions. Carty was optimistic that the industry would quickly recover and even signed the new contracts with the TWU after September 11. IIRC, the new APFA agreement was ratified just prior to September 11. Carty waived his pay for the fourth quarter of 2001 and the other top execs took paycuts for that quarter but even their pay bounced back for 2002.

And yes, as cruel and cold-hearted as it sounds, avoiding bankruptcy as if it's the hallmark of shame may go down as Carty's/Arpey's biggest mistake. Bankruptcy (with larger paycuts/more productivity improvements) might have resulted in more short-term pain for workers but perhaps would have positioned AMR for a merger with one of the now-merged airlines, which might have resulted in a stronger AA right now. Plus, deeper concessions would have resulted in more attrition. The relative light attrition over the past 8.5 years is an indication that the pain, while real, wasn't painful enough. More attrition would have meant faster recalls and perhaps more new-hires off the street in the past eight years, further lowering the total labor costs today.

Avoding Ch 11 in 2003 benefitted one group: the gamblers who bought AMR in late 2002/early 2003 and made a killing when it quickly climbed to its eventual peak of $41/sh in early 2007.

Another possible managment failure might have been AA's reluctance to outsource its overhaul years ago the way nearly every other airline has done. Bob Owens has claimed that it worked out ok for those who did it early but that there's insufficient outsource capacity now - essentially, AA delayed too long. Dunno if Owens is correct, but if he is, and the MROs are now fully booked doing overhauls for the other airlines and have no slack to do overhauls for AA, then he's identified yet another massive management blunder. If you wait until Friday evening to try to get a reservation at the hip restaurant for Friday night, you've screwed up, especially on Valentine's Day. Perhaps AA waited too long.

I agree with everything you posted.

We are the best armchair qb's in this forum...save one... 😱

 

[USFlyer]

You really want to avoid Chapter 11. Once a company enters Chapter 11, your fate is now in the hands of a judge, creditors and the like -- and you lose almost any leverage you once had. I think those who worked for US, UA, DL, NW, CO, etc. who lived through bankruptcies (at least once) can attest to that.

 

[strikeforce]

.
Labor bears responsbility for failing to grant productivity improvements to allow AA to take advantage of their reduced costs.

Not allowing AA to use its massive maintenance capabilities as a source of insourcing revenue instead of a drag on the company will stand as a major mistake.



Labor has done everything that management wants them to do. Some mechanics are assigned 2 to 3 aircraft per night, and most have multiple workcards, MEL's, inbound pireps, and TFI's. How much more work do you expect from mechanics??? Look, every night at ORD management recreates the wheel because management doesn't have a clue how to utilize it's manpower. The nighshift manager arrives 4 to 5 hours before the nighshift starts to get a headstart and by 2200 they still don't know who's here, who isn't here, and where the manpower is needed.....that's not labor's fault is it?????

At ORD, mechanics once serviced Alaska Air and Nippon but, management never renewed those contracts.....it surely wasn't labors fault.

 

[737823]

At ORD, mechanics once serviced Alaska Air and Nippon but, management never renewed those contracts.....it surely wasn't labors fault.

Why is your default to blame AA management? You don't have all the facts and considerations they did before making a decision. Did you ever consider that ANA or AS decided not to renew their own contract? I know AS contracts out substantially all of its maintenance operations. ANA is very close with UA so perhaps their mechanics handle their aircraft at ORD. Don't let the facts get in your way.

Josh