United's sleeping giant
By Mike Comerford Daily Herald Business Writer
Posted 7/11/2004
Retired United Airlines Capt. Tom Conely fears he could lose half his annual pension.
"That's a big hit if the government takes over the plan," said Conely, of Huntley, a 34-year veteran of United.
While a government takeover of the Elk Grove Township-based airline's pension plans isn't anticipated anytime soon, the fate of its underfunded plans is a major issue as the airline tries to raise money to get out of bankruptcy.
When pension plans fail, the government picks up the slack, but it has a limit on how much it will pay - this year's maximum is $43,386 per person.
In a government takeover, those with higher pensions, such as pilots, would lose the most, as would younger employees who have built up the least credit toward a pension.
It is the uncertainty of what United will do in the coming days about its billions in pension bills that is creating the suspense.
William G. Huley spent 26 years at United as a non-unionized management employee. He said he has talked to other retirees about the fate of their retirement incomes and retiree health benefits.
"We don't know what's going on," said Huley, who now heads the Northwest Tax Watch, a tax advocacy group. "The company says nothing, and until we do hear, we have concerns about possibly losing pensions and medical plan coverage."
What United does with its pensions will have far reaching implications for employees, retirees, bankruptcy creditors, financiers and, even, airlines of similar size that would consider cuts in their pensions to keep pace with any change at United.
One unknown is the likelihood of gaining union, creditor, bankruptcy judge and federal approval for any move to pare costs by cutting voters' retirement incomes during an election year.
Still, pensions have been the sleeping giant of United's 19 months in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. United acknowledges its pension plans are under-funded by about $6.2 billion, the most in the airline industry.
It owes $4.1 billion to its employees plans in the next four years and has warned about its ability to cover its contributions in the short term.
While the pension burdens continue to mount, United said it needs $2 billion to exit bankruptcy, a task made more difficult by a federal assistance panel's third denial of loan guarantees last month.
A new group of financial backers will ask for as much as $1.2 billion in additional cost cuts, according to one industry estimate. Jettisoning the pension plans is one possible source of the needed savings.
Meanwhile, United's unions say they've already given wage and benefit concessions amounting to $2.5 billion a year. United's retirees already agreed to medical cost caps earlier this year.
Both the Association of Flight Attendants and the Air Line Pilots Association have said they would vehemently oppose further changes in their pension plans.
In an Internet message to members, the flight attendants union said pension cuts would have an "inevitable backlash" from the flight attendants and "would leave nothing but scorched earth in its path of destruction."
Pilots weren't much more encouraging.
"Pilot pay is not the problem at United," said Herb Hunter, ALPA spokesman. "The airline is doing well. If it weren't for fuel prices, it would be profitable, even with bankruptcy costs."
Still, Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association director O.V. Delle-Femine is quoted in The New York Times as being resigned to some changes in pensions to save the airline.
"You've got to gut the pension plans," he said. "I don't see any other way."
In the meantime, the airline continues to lose money. It lost $2.8 billion last year on revenue of $13.7 billion. Industry projections have it losing more than $1 billion this year too.
All the while, outside financial pressures continue to build. Last week, the price of oil rose above $40 a barrel; it hovered near $25 a barrel in April, 2003.
And competitors are not sitting still while United restructures. Old-line rivals Delta Air Lines and US Airways are seeking deeper cost cuts to match those at United and have said they may enter bankruptcy to gain concessions from suppliers.
Further, low-fare airlines continue to menace United's ability to gain mid-margin profits. Last week, United rescinded a 5 percent raise on international tickets as low-fare competitor Southwest Airlines announced domestic fare cuts of up to 65 percent.
On the positive side, United points to the fact that it had a slight operating profit in May and its June load factor was a record 86 percent - the third straight month for record load factors at the airline.
And some of United's short-term pension burdens were lessened earlier this year with passage of national legislation allowing a two-year waiver on current minimum payments to the plans.
While the legislation helped several industries, United was the biggest single beneficiary, with an estimated $1.8 billion in deferred payments. That doesn't mean United doesn't have to pay the money eventually, according to Robert Mann, airline analyst with R. W. Mann & Co., of Port Washington, N.Y.
Meanwhile, United is working on its financial models for a bankruptcy exit plan that can convince financial backers it can handle the sleeping giant - pensions.
And everyone from creditors to employees is awaiting word on its pension intentions