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Boyd Group's review and analysis of AA's bankruptcy

Pension costs are determined by what the plans pay out each year, not the amount of cash AA must contribute.

So if the company dumps $500 million into the plan how do they catagorize that? Where does that figure show up? According to what you are saying their costs for a given year are only what they pay out to retirees for the year, not what they pay in, despite the fact that most of what was paid out would be from funds that were set aside years ago and while certain rules may apply for tax reporting purposes they dont apply when claims are made such as "AA's labor costs are $600 millionor $800 million more than their competitors". In other words they can make the numbers say pretty much whatever they want them to say as long as they dont mislead investors into thinkng they are in better shape than they are.

Last year I paid AA around $3000 for medical benefits, , so if AA claims they "paid out" $2000 they in fact netted $1000. When they cite that they paid out X millions in benefits their actual costs were much, much less because they are offset by fees levied against employees for the coverage.

One thing that seems to be clear is that despite the fact that everyone says they use the same source for the Data everyone has different numbers. Kind of squashes the arguement that accurate comparasions can be made from those sources when everyone ends up with different figures on basic costs such as labor costs. Like I said the SEC helps companies retain secrecy and at least as far as SEC filings are really more about letting investers know how much liability the firm is exposed to, and that liability is the primary reason for the attacks on DB pensions and not whether or not the plans provide an operational impediment to the profitability of the firm.

By the way you are slipping. I never said that outsourcing doesnt lower labor costs, I never denied that it does, but outsourcing doesnt eliminate the cost of getting the work done, it shifts it somewhere else and nobody has proven that it lowers costs, note the absence of the word Labor. Costs and labor costs are two different things.
 
The fact that AMR is the only carrier in court could also work to their benefit. There was some degree of pattern bargaining going on with the creditors and lessors if I recall back in 2004-2005.
Yea , they moved the furniture around but essentially followed AA.
 
Yea , they moved the furniture around but essentially followed AA.
AMR picked a bad time to go for a govt bail-out !!!The stock market thieves made off with half of the retirement accounts and its the employees fault !
Maybe a little CHINESE JUSTICE !! execution on the spot .oh wait their would be no poliitions left.what an joke we've turned into.
 
So if the company dumps $500 million into the plan how do they catagorize that? Where does that figure show up?

That figure shows up in the decrease of the cash balance. In 2010, AA's pensions paid out $581 million and AA made contributions of $461 million. In addition, Retiree medical and other benefits paid out $140 million and AA contributed $151 million to those plans. Each year, the pension plans earn interest, dividend and capital gains. Realized capital gains, dividends and interest show up on the income statement as other income and the pension plan payments show up as part of wages, salaries and benefits.

According to what you are saying their costs for a given year are only what they pay out to retirees for the year, not what they pay in, despite the fact that most of what was paid out would be from funds that were set aside years ago and while certain rules may apply for tax reporting purposes they dont apply when claims are made such as "AA's labor costs are $600 millionor $800 million more than their competitors". In other words they can make the numbers say pretty much whatever they want them to say as long as they dont mislead investors into thinkng they are in better shape than they are.

The $721 million paid out for pensions and retiree medical in 2010 exceeded the cash contributed in 2010 because there are billions of dollars invested (from prior years' contributions) that earn interest, dividends and capital gains.

Last year I paid AA around $3000 for medical benefits, , so if AA claims they "paid out" $2000 they in fact netted $1000. When they cite that they paid out X millions in benefits their actual costs were much, much less because they are offset by fees levied against employees for the coverage.

I don't know. You paid $3,000 - did AA pay out a total of $5,000 or did AA just pay out $2,000, netting the medical plan the $1,000? On an individual basis, some employees have years when they don't cost the medical plan anything and then there are years when those same people cost the medical plan tens of thousands (pregnancy and delivery) or maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars (life-threatening illnesses and surgeries). That's the whole point of medical insurance, after all. Everyone pays in and some years you don't collect much. With most insurance, not collecting is sorta a good thing. I'm happy to pay fire insurance for my house and then have it NOT burn down. Same thing with auto insurance - another year without a claim is good. I'm really glad to not collect on life insurance.
 
That figure shows up in the decrease of the cash balance. In 2010, AA's pensions paid out $581 million and AA made contributions of $461 million. In addition, Retiree medical and other benefits paid out $140 million and AA contributed $151 million to those plans. Each year, the pension plans earn interest, dividend and capital gains. Realized capital gains, dividends and interest show up on the income statement as other income and the pension plan payments show up as part of wages, salaries and benefits.



The $721 million paid out for pensions and retiree medical in 2010 exceeded the cash contributed in 2010 because there are billions of dollars invested (from prior years' contributions) that earn interest, dividends and capital gains.



I don't know. You paid $3,000 - did AA pay out a total of $5,000 or did AA just pay out $2,000, netting the medical plan the $1,000? On an individual basis, some employees have years when they don't cost the medical plan anything and then there are years when those same people cost the medical plan tens of thousands (pregnancy and delivery) or maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars (life-threatening illnesses and surgeries). That's the whole point of medical insurance, after all. Everyone pays in and some years you don't collect much. With most insurance, not collecting is sorta a good thing. I'm happy to pay fire insurance for my house and then have it NOT burn down. Same thing with auto insurance - another year without a claim is good. I'm really glad to not collect on life insurance.

Decrease in the cash balance attributed to what? Not equipment and furnishings. Where does it show up?

On an individual basis there are some employees who the company profits off of and they use those profits to pay their liabilities to other workers. We don't buy insurance from an insurance provider, we pay AA and AA has used that to cut our pay another 5% on top of all the other concessions.
 
It is true that AMR came into BK in better shape including that they did not need DIP financing but they also had no unmortgaged assets before they went into BK - they borrowed everything they could before they got to BK as an attempt to avoid BK - but it is precisely because they had money in the bank that lbaor did not believe they were truly serious about cutting costs - or did not realize the consequences if they did not cooperate. Other carriers filed for BK before they had mortgaged all of their assets obtaining DIP with what was left unmortgaged.
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It is also not necessarily true that AMR's interest rates on the debt it obtained in the past year has much lower interest than DIP financing. AMR's credit rating has increased its lending costs considerably and because AMR has very little unsecured debt, their lending costs are not going to decrease as a result of being able to dump unsecured debt.
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Freezing pensions was only available by the time DL and NW filed; the only option for US and UA was to terminate - and the companies sought it to reduce the amount of the reorganized company that the PBGC will take as a a result of terminating pensions.
Terminating vs. freezing pensions has nothing to do with DIP; DL froze pensions for all but pilots and they terminated that plan because it had a lump sum provisions which made it impossible to fund.
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It is true that a company does not have to be in BK to shed routes but they cannot get rid of many of the costs outside of BK; they cannot walk away from leases outside of BK and therefore cutting capacity w/o being able to cut costs overall only results in higher costs for the capacity that remains.

Yes, every BK is different. The biggest difference now is that AMR is the only major airline restructuring which leaves it far more vulnerable than when other carriers were all restructuring at the same time.

"they borrowed everything they could before they got to BK as an attempt to avoid BK"

Actually i think they borrowed everything they could because they were planning for BK. More cash going into it means more control on the outcome.

Terminating vs. freezing pensions has nothing to do with DIP

I was not impying it did.
 
Other airlines like AA knew exactly how much cash they would need to survive in BK - the main reason why airlines during the 2000 BK cycle all survived is that they learned from the mistakes of airlines before, many of which did not have enough cash to restructure.
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I would agree that some airlines did run up their debt knowing they could wipe alot of it out in BK. DL had $4B in unsecured debt (not sure when those levels really built up but I believe the largest increases came in the post 9/11 period but before DL's outlook worsened so bad that those lines of credit were taken away) - and that was wiped off the books when DL filed. UA had between $1 and 2 billion, IIRC.
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AA had virtually no unsecured debt because its financial downfall has been over such a long period of time that no one was willing to lend to them on an unsecured basis. Further, AA's plans under Arpey were to attempt on an out of court restructuring.... so they had to keep cash levels high as the ability to borrow more money was limited to refinancing aircraft backed debt as it matured.
Yes, more cash does mean more control but it also greatly increases the likelihood of survival - which is all the more reason why those who argue that US will win attempts to take over AMR are incorrect. AMR has the resources to restructure, even if it means shrinking the network considerably and cutting employee wages deeply... those issues will be addressed after AA emerges but for now AA's focus is on restructuring.
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IF AA is able to freeze its pensions and fund them over a longer period of time - similar to what DL is doing with most DL and PMNW pensions - they will continue to carry those liabilities on the books - and what they have to contribute will fluctuate with the stock market. Given that the option is to give employee groups and the PBGC equity in the reorganized company because unfunded pensions are a liability AMR has to deal with, I suspect that AMR will choose to freeze similar to what DL has done rather than terminate...
frozen and not terminated pensions are a continuing liability on AMR's books that any buyer - including US will have to factor into the business plan. Given that AMR is already committing to huge amounts of new aircraft debt, they will continue to carry high debt levels and even more so if they freeze their pensions.
 
I have to admit I'm not up to speed on the technicalities of doing a hard freeze vs. a distress termination the pension.

Would a freeze require handing the plan over to the PBGC?
 
I have to admit I'm not up to speed on the technicalities of doing a hard freeze vs. a distress termination the pension.

Would a freeze require handing the plan over to the PBGC?
no... the whole benefit to the creditor is that the PBGC doesn't get involved... AA could continue to administer the plan according to the rules of the plan and would not have to give any equity in the reorganized company to the PBGC.
As long as AMR's creditors believe the debt levels associated w/ the plan are not too high, I would think a freeze is far better and more likely to be pursued than a termination.
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Given that AA was able to stop the lump sum payments which was killed DL's pilot plan, it may not be necessary to terminate the AA pilot plan. I'm not sure I still understand the difference between the DL and AA lump sum parts of the pilots' plans but if AA learned from what DL did and avoided a termination, that would be good for all involved.
 
OK, didn't want to jump to to conclusions. Agree it would be a better outcome. I'd like to be able to draw some of my pension at 55..
 
I have to admit I'm not up to speed on the technicalities of doing a hard freeze vs. a distress termination the pension.

Would a freeze require handing the plan over to the PBGC?


Several years ago the PBGC changed somme of its rules to encourage freezing a pension rather than termination. I think they allow 15-17 years to make up the funding shortfall, much easier on the company in question rather than have the rules almost encourage (UA) a company to terminate. In the case of UA, who did terminate, the PBGC as one of the largest unsecured creditors was able to muscle in an make sure they got equity in the new company. So in the end, for PBGC they were made whole or nearly so, but that benefit as I recall did not help the employees. Let's hope AMR freezes and does not terminate. Termination for someone who wants to collect at 55 is brutal, reducing your payout by 50%.
 
If a company terminate and the employee retires
at 65 does anyone know what the reduction to your
Payout is?


Should be the same amount you get on the Jetnet site as long as you put in termination date 11/29/2011.
 
It's good to see Boyd's hatred of Eagle continues unabated. A legacy of his days of being a paid consultant to the APA no doubt.

While I agree with him that the 135's and 140's are toast I doubt that with the virtual elimination of the SCOPE clause they aren't going to be replaced with more 700's or larger equipment. Based on some things I am seeing it seems a virtual certainty.

Boyd seems to think Eagle by 2016 will only have 56 aircraft. I'm not sure I believe that. As for SCOPE, complete elimination is highly unlikely. I would think the end agreement would relax it some.

Ok so if Boyd is not perfect, then please list some groups so we can compare each analysis. Without any kind of credentials, it is difficult to know what is true and what is not. I am an A&P Avionics mechanic, bought I am not qualified to speak on the behalf of the Systems mechanics. But I can tell about kindney disease and a kidney transplant. Someone please lgive some factual information.

There are many analysts who seem to think that a merger with another carrier (most say LCC) is inevitable. Boyd disagrees.


Perhaps. It's a bit more extreme of an outcome than I'd expect, but Mike's not in the same class as some of the other analysts I call out here from time to time.

I think Boyd's stance on Eagle is extreme. The rest seems plausible.
 
Boyd's stance makes sense, AA can always outsource their regional as everyone else does. Not being cruel here, just pointing out the obvious.
 
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