A couple of points:
RE: TPG's non-interest
I think whatkindoffreshhell's point about BK is valid. I also think its an "excuse" for betting that UAL will be denied by the ATSB again and will be forced to execute additional cost cuts, at which point they are a more attractive option... Remember, TPG may be a turn around specialist, but its turnarounds have come from airlines with relatively low-costs (AWA and CAL).
RE: UAIR's cash balance
Boeing Boy: I'm not sure where your quote came from, but that is not too far off my prediction made in March. I still think something will occur this fall, with October as my best guess. I don't know what something is... maybe BK, maybe asset sales, maybe cash infusion from RSA,maybe something else... who knows.
But I think its imporatant to note that UAIR went CH11 with $500mil to $600mil in unrestricted cash... You don't go BK when you have $0 unrestricted left... So, I think a CH7 BK is more and more likely, the closer to $700mil unrestricted cash UAIR gets. If UAIR hits the $700mil unrestricted cash loan covenant, and ATSB calls in the loan, UAIR is left with virtually $0... This will cause a shutdown, unless someone steps up with some kind of immediate financing to keep the operation running into a CH11... Whatever happens, it won't be pretty.
Back to TPG/UAL... Wouldn't a TPG investment in a UAL which was denied the ATSB guarantee, thus forcing additional cost cuts, and an industry without UAIR, be a far superior investment for TPG than investing in UAL now? I think so... And I think this is the scenario TPG is betting on too (or something similar), in order to be "interested" in UAL.
I'm not trying to bash on US Airways here, but I don't think a slow transformation to a PIT focus city, a slow tranformation to a focus on LGA/BOS/DCA, a slow movement into PHL as a rolled-hub, using GoFares to (mostly) match LCC service incursions, will do anything to change the company fortunes by Winter 2004-05. The changes US Airways needs are dramatic and immediate... And that doesn't seem to be in the path targeting by management.