Can The Financial Wizards Explain?

[scab scraper]

Actually it was started by an AMFA supporter and I enjoy it so far. Hopefully Oneflyer won't ruin it.

amfaman,amfaman, what are you saying? are you saying that dAAve is back supporting amfa(PUKE) ? hummmmm i find this VERY, VERY, interesting.
you see amfaman this amfa(PUKE) supporter, is sitting in his shop every night trying to convince everyone he is" THROUGH. with amfa(PUKE)" those are his very words to ME face to face not just once but a couple of times & is telling that to all who'll listen.........BUT, amfaman you see i hear but am not listening because i KNOW dAAve all to well 😛h34r: he is amfa(PUKE) to the bone. he hates the TWU/AFL/CIO/ATD. so much he can't stand it another thing amfaman, he like you/
bobowens/kennyboy/buckhead/donnie/ want to be somebody & can't be anybody.
why would the polyester dude(o'del) come to Tulsa for an info meeting @ loco12 when there are contract to be negotiated @ some of your other locos/airlines???
whats with that? what kind of message is he sending them? i mean amfa(PUKE) has done NOTHING...NOTHING to even try to keep jobs & UAL/NWA & i'm sorry amfaman you scabs are about to looooooose again one of your so called supporters. they have seen ENOUGH of what amfa(PUKE) can't do for them.
bottom line amfaman & dAAve you are still SCABS!!!!!
get this>>>>>AFL/CIO/ATD/TUW=UNION=SCABFREE

WHAT PART OF UNION DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND? 😉

 

[AMFAMAN]

Lastly, cash is the last thing on the books that can be fudged. The company's financials are audited by a professional accounting firm (Ernst & Young) whose very existence depends upon its independence from the company and integrity of work. Ernst & Young verifies that American has the cash in their bank accounts. There is never a debate on the number.

[post="264995"][/post]​

I just got done reading an article in the paper on Arthur Anderson and the Enron, etc, etc, etc scams they pulled off and I then I read your post. I am not going to say anythings about the books except history has now showed, you should never say never.... <_<

 

[FWAAA]

Yes, especially for debt that is backed by assets (aircraft). If the entire airline industry is in bankruptcy, that means that there is no market for the aircraft that serve as collateral for our loans. If you can't unload the aircraft, then you can't repay the creditors. The creditors would view this as a devastating scenario.

[post="265025"][/post]​

What about non-USA airlines? At the right price, maybe some of those jets could be leased to foreign carriers.

What about domestic start-ups? If all of the legacy airlines are in Ch 11, the odds increase that someone with cash will buy them and start some new nonunion legacy airlines with used airplanes instead of the B6 model of new airplanes. Pay B6 wages and pay cut rate rent on old legacy airplanes.

 

[AMFAMAN]

bottom line amfaman & dAAve you are still SCABS!!!!!

[post="265026"][/post]​

Never crossed a picket line in my life, even despite being ordered by the twu to cross the AA F/A's years back. Show me a picket line and we'll see you crosses it tough guy. I know in this lifetime, the twu will never strike.

Be careful with that word scab, they are fighting words especially when coming from a supporter of a company union.

Now unless you have something financial to add to this forum, crawl back into the hole you came from, afterall, you trust the company numbers so you need not learn.

 

[Connected1]

I just got done reading an article in the paper on Arthur Anderson and the Enron, etc, etc, etc scams they pulled off and I then I read your post. I am not going to say anythings about the books except history has now showed, you should never say never.... <_<

[post="265027"][/post]​

I think we all know what happened to Arthur Andersen. I resubmit my previous statement about people being held personally accountable in the post-Sarbanes world. Trying to suggest that any publicly-traded company fudges their cash balance is fighting a losing battle.

Not even Enron tried to fudge their cash number.

 

[Connected1]

What about non-USA airlines? What about domestic start-ups?

[post="265029"][/post]​

The biggest market for narrow- and mid-bodies in the world is in the U.S. Dumping 1000+ aircraft on the world market at once would create a buyer's market at the very least. Sure, the aircraft may sell but I doubt that the creditors would be repaid more than 15 or 25 cents on the dollar. That is not a good scenario and is definitely not something the investors (both debt and equity) want to see.

 

[AMFAMAN]

I think we all know what happened to Arthur Andersen. I resubmit my previous statement about people being held personally accountable in the post-Sarbanes world. Trying to suggest that any publicly-traded company fudges their cash balance is fighting a losing battle.

Not even Enron tried to fudge their cash number.

[post="265031"][/post]​

I think I stated I'm not suggesting anything about AA...just saying never say never because it has happened. The post sounded like this kind of stuff couldn't ever happen when in fact it has. Hopefully, it will be the last time but history always has a way of repeating itself.

 

[FWAAA]

The biggest market for narrow- and mid-bodies in the world is in the U.S. Dumping 1000+ aircraft on the world market at once would create a buyer's market at the very least. Sure, the aircraft may sell but I doubt that the creditors would be repaid more than 15 or 25 cents on the dollar. That is not a good scenario and is definitely not something the investors (both debt and equity) want to see.

[post="265032"][/post]​

I agree. You would think that the employees would also definitely NOT want to see industry-wide bankruptcy, either. Why not? Because that would probably make it very easy for all legacy airlines to abrogate their union contracts, accelerating the often talked about "race to the bottom."

And if that didn't happen, then I predict we would see some liquidations, followed by low-cost domestic startups, all nonunion, paying B6-type wages. Getting their used Boeings and Airbii very cheap from GE and ILF.

 

[Connected1]

The post sounded like this kind of stuff couldn't ever happen when in fact it has.

[post="265035"][/post]​

Fudging cash doesn't happen. If it ever does, I will give you a full refund on my opinion.

 

[peasant]

1- Enron didn't fudge cash (you can't) they fudged profits (easy)

2- Yes, if you owe the bank 10billion US, they have a problem. IMHO this is obviously happening with GECAS - who look to be keeping some US airlines alive rather than having aircraft dumped.

For other financiers, their amount at risk is far smaller, so paradoxically the best thing at the moment is to have one big creditor that you can bully, rather than many that are tempted to cut losses and walk away (especially as the first to walk will find it easiest to place aircraft in, say Asia)

 

[Bob Owens]

I agree.   You would think that the employees would also definitely NOT want to see industry-wide bankruptcy, either.   Why not?   Because that would probably make it very easy for all legacy airlines to abrogate their union contracts, accelerating the often talked about "race to the bottom."

And if that didn't happen, then I predict we would see some liquidations, followed by low-cost domestic startups, all nonunion, paying B6-type wages.   Getting their used Boeings and Airbii very cheap from GE and ILF.

[post="265036"][/post]​

Let them all go BK. It doesnt really matter and the companies will do whatever the unions let them get away with whether they go BK or not. Race to the bottom? Its over-AA won. We are seeing a steady stream of resignations already, something this industry never saw, remarkable considering the state of the economy and job market as a whole. If things pick up the stream will turn into a torrent.

The fact is that we should have all gotten together back when the Judge started threatening UALs workers and told the courts that if they abrogate any labor agreement that we would all honor their picket lines, the RLA gives us that right.

A thousand airplanes dumped onto the market? Its not going to happen. The planes will be kept flying because without transportation other industries suffer.

Besides what makes you think that b-6 or other start up would want the used, by then, very much abused, aircraft? JetBlues fortunes are already changing as their maintenance costs climb. Sure they were doing great with the sweetheart deal they got from Airbus with the brand new aircraft under warranty but as they age, and come off warranty their costs are climbing. What makes you think that Jet Blue would want to take on a bunch of cheap abused aircraft when their business plan was built around getting brand new aircraft very cheaply and sticking to a siingle fleet type to reduce costs? The fact is if thats what they wanted there are already plenty of them already sitting out there in the desert. In fact there is a TV show where they take aircraft parts and turn then into office furniture.

The fact is that the industry is a quasi utility. We saw that back when UALs mechanics threatened to strike and Bush said that he would not let any airline workers strike because of the broader economic impact of a strike by a large carrier.

The Economy is not doing all that much better now.

Funny how you cite the threat of B-6. How come you dont use SWA?"You airline workers better be careful or SWA might take over and give you a $10/hr raise" doesnt have quite the desired impact does it?

The fact is that B-6 pay is not any worse than AA's pay. B-6's starting pay is actually higher than AA's starting pay and we dont know what their pay will top out at yet becuase they have not been in business that long. In fact we had several topped out mechanics, and even management, quit AA to go to B-6. None of them have expressed any regret. As for its non-union status the fact is I've worked non-union, there really isnt all that much difference, except for the fact that in a non-union place you might come under more pressure to sign things off that should not be signed off. Think about that next time you fly non-union.

Otherwise management doesnt treat the mechanics any different than at a union shop because they know that if they break balls the mechanics will simply get a union or break balls back with the manual. Non-union mechanics have just as much down time as union mechanics and tend to have the same, or in some cases-Delta, Fed Ex, Jet Blue, better pay than their union counterparts that are stuck in industrial unions.

 

[Bob Owens]

1- Enron didn't fudge cash (you can't) they fudged profits (easy)

2- Yes, if you owe the bank 10billion US, they have a problem.  IMHO this is obviously happening with GECAS - who look to be keeping some US airlines alive rather than having aircraft dumped.

For other financiers, their amount at risk is far smaller, so paradoxically the best thing at the moment is to have one big creditor that you can bully, rather than many that are tempted to cut losses and walk away (especially as the first to walk will find it easiest to place aircraft in, say Asia)

[post="265117"][/post]​

And thats where they screwed up. The rules in place are specifically designed to prevent misleading the shareholder, or potential shareholder, into thinking that the company is worth more than it really is, not less than it really is.

Easy to place aircraft in Asia? Well then why is the desert full of aircraft if its so easy ? Why is GE still pumping funds into USAIR if they could simply "place" them in ASIA? Or do you mean to say that since the Mohave is full that now they are going to place them in the Gobi?

Do you expect us to believe that there is a shortage of Aircraft in Asia or that there are billions of people who live on $200/year who are waiting to purchase $500 airplane trips to places where they couldnt afford to buy anything anyway?

 

[eolesen]

Easy to place aircraft in Asia? Well then why is the desert full of aircraft if its so easy ? Why is GE still pumping funds into USAIR if they could simply "place" them in ASIA? Or do you mean to say that since the Mohave is full that now they are going to place them in the Gobi?

Do you expect us to believe that there is a shortage of Aircraft in Asia or that there are billions of people who live on $200/year who are waiting to purchase $500 airplane trips to places where they couldnt afford to buy anything anyway?

[post="265270"][/post]​

Most of the aircraft parked are either 3/4 engine widebodies or narrowbodies 15 years old or older. Newer types aren't even going to the desert -- they're going directly to younger carriers. You won't find an newer vintage A320 or 737 parked right now (there are some 10+ year old A320s available, however).

Even JetsGo seems to have found a buyer for their former AA F100's -- they seem to be heading to Mexico to form a new LCC there.


The travel market in Asia isn't the billions of people who live on $200 a year. It's a mix of buyers and sellers for Walmart and other retailers, as well reps for US based corporations doing visits to their manufacturing facilities in Asia....

 

[Decision 2004]

Actually it was started by an AMFA supporter and I enjoy it so far. Hopefully Oneflyer won't ruin it.

amfaman,amfaman, what are you saying? are you saying that dAAve is back supporting amfa(PUKE) ? hummmmm i find this VERY, VERY, interesting.
you see amfaman this amfa(PUKE) supporter, is sitting in his shop every night trying to convince everyone he is" THROUGH. with amfa(PUKE)" those are his very words to ME face to face not just once but a couple of times & is telling that to all who'll listen.........

[post="265026"][/post]​

You are nothing more than a common liar!

Not spending the time,money, and energy to organize AMFA does not mean I fail to see the worthless bedwetting TWU still needs to be replaced.

Give me a ballot and I will personally show you that vote for AMFA!

Being "through" organizing, is not the same as "through" with AMFA.

You are such a zealot you hear what you want to hear, even when being told the truth.

I highly doubt that I spoke with you "face to face". Your zealot ways do not allow that type of communication, and given the way you write, I wouldn't want to be known as someone who associates with those of your mental state.

 

[Decision 2004]

Total AMR debt is currently over $29 billion, not $22 billion.

[post="264799"][/post]​

Where can I find documented proof of this current debt load?